Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Music City Bowl Forecast

Here's my MCB forecast, if any of you are going to the game like I will be...you may want to wear an extra layer of clothing cause the Wind Chills will be brutally be cold.

And if you aren't going to the game or anywhere as of that matter, staying at home with the heat on sounds like a great idea! After yesterday's 50-60º day, today will be quite the opposite and not welcomed.


Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Lunchtime Forecast 11/30; Mid-January Artic Blast w/ Snow?

Before I get to the exciting part, I must get to today's forecast. For today expect mostly sunny skies until we reach our sunset, then expect a clear night with your low getting to around 33ºF-29ºF depending upon where you are located.

The models have been hinting for a while that we here in Middle TN and South Central KY, as well as places even south of here, could get a good snowstorm anywhere during the 9th through the 14th of this month. The models have frigid air entering our region from the NW and with that comes moisture too. This system is still over 10 days out and anything can change (and more then likely will). Even this morning some of the models have backtracked on the cold and the amount of moisture a bit, but we are still cold enough and have enough moisture to squeeze out a good event. This will be, like always, a nail bitter till the end!

Monday, December 29, 2008

Blog Poll Results: White Christmas Witnesses

" Have You Ever Witnessed A White Christmas?"


Yes
5 (71%)

No
1 (14%)

Can't Remember Either Way
1 (14%)

After have been away from blog posting a couple days, I'll be back tomorrow morning posting about the mid-January Artic spell we may encounter! That'd be a great welcome to the new year for you snowlovers...not so much for the snow haters though.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Severe Risk Update: Damaging Winds Main Threat

As you can tell, the SPC has moved the biggest threat to the NE a good bit. That move to the NE is big for us and here's why. The bigger dynamics of this system will be moving off to the NE all day today. With that shift to the NE, when the suspected squall line moves through our region, the tornadic threat we will have (which is small to begin with) will begin to move off to the NE as it moves eastward. With that said, the biggest risk of severe weather (TOR and WIND combined) is going to be places around the TN River area, while the areas with less chance are on the Plateau areas around Crossville. Either way you look at it, we could see some warnings and possibly a Tornado Watch issued for our area later on this evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. But like the title says, the biggest threat will be damaging winds.

Nashville: low to mid 70's
Clarksville: low to mid 70's
Cookeville: upper 60's
Columbia: low to mid 70's
Manchester: upper 60's to low 70's

Friday, December 26, 2008

Saturday/Sunday 11/27-11/28 Severe Threat

Here's the SPC's Convective Outlook of this weekends potential severe day. Here is a list of things that I think you may see here in Middle TN and South Central KY from this system.

*- Squall Line (this is my thinking) will arrive during the early morning hours on Sunday.
*- Any broken cells in front of the approaching line, will have the potential to "spin up" an isolated tornado.
*- Main threat with this system as a whole will be damaging winds, mainly when the squall line passes through your area.
*- Areas of my highest concern are located around the TN River areas (Dover, Paris, Camden, and Hopkinsville, KY etc.) Where the SPC has the 15% risk area outlined in blue in the map above.

I will have an update on these in my morning post tomorrow.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas! Saturday Severe Threat

HO HO HO! Well, I'm not Santa Claus, but if I was; this TN weather would be like Caribbean weather to me. Even if we don't have snow on the ground like the penguin family in the picture above has, I hope you are having a very Merry Christmas today anyway. The weather couldn't be any more right for a day like today. Yes the temps. could be a little warmer, but God has blessed us with a wonderful weather day with no rain or weather worries around.

*Tomorrow I will post a map showing the severe weather potential for Saturday into Sunday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with that event to what we could see and how bad it could get. Right now MY current thinking is that it will be more of a damaging wind threat with an isolated tornado threat with any stronger storms.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Christmas Eve Forecast

Well, the time has come yet again. I've always been told that when you get older, time goes by much faster. Well I'm only 16 years old and time is going by faster then ever, if it was to go any faster...I might miss Christmas from here on out! But anyway, if you are traveling here in the Mid State for the holidays, it will be a wet go for you, especially if you are in Western Middle TN and Western KY. The temps. today could reach the 60º mark, but the real weather story is the wind. The OHX office is saying we could have wind gust as high as 50 mph today, and that isn't with the storm winds we could see today. There's a small risk of some severe weather in western parts of Middle TN today, and the biggest threat would be damaging winds. Hope everyone has a safe, Christmas Holiday!

*I will be doing a post tomorrow...it might be a mid-day post, but I will do one on Christmas Day!

Monday, December 22, 2008

Frigid TN Day; Coldest Morning Since 1993

WOW! When and if you manage to go outside this morning, you will be rudely introduced to this cold, arctic air that has been here for almost a day total now. Here's a list of some of the early morning readings and their WCV's.

7ºF, WC: -2ºF- Clarksville, TN
9ºF, WC: -2ºF- Shelbyville, TN
7ºF, WC: -5ºF- Hopkinsville, KY
5ºF, WC: -6ºF- Cookeville, TN
7ºF, WC: -2ºF- Bowling Green, KY
14ºF, WC: 4ºF- Waynesboro, TN

And this cold weather is going to stick around today as well just like it did yesterday. Our high will only reach 26ºF in Nashville while many areas will see readings between 21ºF-25ºF. But lucky our temp. will rise overnight tonight a little and we will see those temps. reach the 40's tomorrow...but we also have a freezing rain/sleet chance tonight as well, but that risk is slight and it won't amount to much at all.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Out The Door Forecast Headlines: 12/21


Wind Chill Advisories may be needed tonight for us. We haven't been in a WCA for a few years now, so this cold weather will take us all by surprise.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Wet and Windy December 19th, 2008

This is the Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook posted by OHX this morning. Along with the rain, we are experiencing some very windy conditions with gust as high as 35 mph in some places. This rain and wind will be around for much of the day and our temps. will be falling throughout the day as well, but the lowest I see it getting to is the low 50's for everyone.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Blog Poll Results: Winter Excitement!!??

" Which Winter Event Excites You Most?"


Snowstorm
5 (55%)

Icestorm
2 (22%)

No Winter Storm
2 (22%)

Wet Weather Moves In; Stormier Weather For Friday?

This morning areas all across Middle TN and South Central KY are in a Dense Fog Advisory, and if you where to go outside this morning, you'd see why. Places west of here around the Paris and Martin areas, they are in a Freezing Fog Advisory. Then, if you travel NW ward up to around Hopkinsville and Madisonville, KY; they are in a Freezing Rain Advisory this morning. So these weather events are all around us today, just as they have been all week.

Today, we will see a S/SE wind pick up and in return that will boost our temperatures up close to 50ºF today. Then tomorrow comes the real fun, we will see the S/SE wind pick up (Gust as high as 30 mph are expected) and with that S/SE wind, our moisture intake will grow and so will our atmospheric instability. I'm not expecting severe weather, but one or two stronger storms with gusty winds can't be ruled out.

Nashville: upper 40's (isolated low 50's); 20% chance of afternoon showers
Clarksville: upper 40's; 20% chance of afternoon showers
Cookeville: low 50's
Columbia: low 50's; 30% chance of afternoon showers
Manchester: low to mid 50's; 30% chance of afternoon showers

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Icy Threat Turns Into Reality

This morning as you go out and about, people to the north and NW of Nashville are dealing with a wintry start to their day. The NWS at around 11:00 last night made the choice to cancel the Ice Storm Warning and replace those areas with Winter Storm Warnings (which in my book both are bad, but since the amount of precip. we received didn't reach ISW criteria...they "downgraded" the warnings for that region which I completely agree with.) And last night once I was gone to bed, the NWS added some counties to my east on the Rim and Plateau into the Freezing Rain Advisory. Their are numerous school systems closed to my north and west (including ME!) and since theirs a good bit, I can't make a map of the closings and delayes. You can find the Middle TN and South Central KY school closings at http://www.wkrn.com/ .

Monday, December 15, 2008

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion...Winter Style!

SHOWERS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOULD CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD...PERHAPS INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.15/3-HR PERIOD.

It's not too many times that you see the SPC issue a MSD during a winter event. Normally you would see these issued for a NE or Upper Plains snowstorm, but even to them this storm would be a pain in the neck.

Icy Mess 11/15-11/16

For the counties you see in purple, an ICE STORM WARNING has been issued for your region. The TN counties in the warning include, Robertson, Montgomery, Stewart, Dickson, Houston, Cheatham, and Humphreyes Counties.

The light blue is for a Freezing Rain Advisory issued for these Middle TN residents...Perry, Lewis, Hickman, Williamson, Davidson, Maury, Wilson, Sumner, Trousdale, and Macon Counties.

* I tried to find a map of South Central KY I could use, but to no luck. So too tell you guys. The NWS office has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the following counties... Logan, Warren, Simpson, Allen, Barren, and Metcalfe Counties.

They have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Monroe County, KY.

* This event, for some, will start at around the noon time hour with our temperature dropping dramatically throughout the day. So with that being said, schools will more then likely start dismissing early out to the west of here and could impact the Nashville commute. Right now the chance doesn't look likely for it too since the interstates will be a good bit above freezing...but if the system was to speed up the we could be looking at afternoon problems.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Icy Potential Monday Night Across N/NW Middle TN

This chart is from the HPC telling us what the chances are of seeing ice accumulation. Areas in the 10% (Slight risk) include: Portland, Ashland City, and Scottsville, KY. Areas in the 40% (Moderate risk) include: Clarksville, Dyersburg, and Hopkinsville, KY. The NWS in Louisville has issued a WSW (Winter Storm Watch) for their DMA due to this impending event. And so has the NWS office from Paducah.

Just for a heads-up. The models have been trending southward with this system the past couple of days, and if that trend continues...Nashville could be in the mix of this system as well. It will be a situation that we, Fred, Matt, and I will monitor til the ice threat passes Tuesday mid-day.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Snowfall Amounts: 12/11 + 12/12

If you want to post your snowfall totals in the comment sections, you are more then welcome too. Here are a couple of reports that I have heard of.

1.5"- Cookeville, TN
.8"- Southeast Nashville
1"- Nashville International Airport
3"- SW Marshall County, TN
2-3"- Columbia, TN
2.5"- Smyrna, TN
1"- Lascassas, TN
.75"- Franklin, TN
.5"- Gamaliel, KY
Trace- Hendersonville, TN
2"- Thompson's Station, TN
1"- Shelbyville, TN
2"- Waynesboro, TN
1.5"- Brentwood, TN
3"- Lebanon, TN
.5"- Westmoreland (My report)

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Tonight's Winter Episode: 12/11

I won't be posting an accumulation map for this event, cause it looks like most areas won't see any accumulation at all from this event and the places where the accumulation is possible, would be on the Plateau and SE sections of Middle TN and I'm only expecting an 1" at most for those areas. The Huntsville NWS office issued a Winter Weather Advisory our for their area earlier this morning for the possibility of 1-3" for them...which I see likely for them, but not for us. So with this event...MS and AL will get the snow, while we just get the cold rains. Here's my snowfall predictions.

West Tennessee: Little or No Snow At All

Nashville Basin: Light Snow Flying

Highland Rim: Light Snow, accumulation (dusting to 1/2") possible on eastern areas of Rim (Cookeville, Livingston, Sparta)

Cumberland Plateau: Light to Moderate Snow, accumulation likely (1/2" to 1") in all areas (Crossville, Jamestown, Byrdstown, and areas down towards Monteagle and Sewanee)

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Tonight and Thursday's Snow Chance

As the rain pushes eastward out of our region. We will see a drying period from here on out. The highest rainfall total reported in this morning that I can see, is from Southern Humphreys and Dickson Counties where 3.83" and 3.82" of rain was reported. The Flood Watch that I mentioned last night should expire here in a shortly, but just because the Watch expires, doesn't mean that their aren't areas in your region that are flooded. Just extra caution today while driving to work or school this morning. Pickett, Overton, and Fentress Counties are in a Flash Flood Warning til 6 a.m. this morning.

And as the title says, tonight and tomorrow we have the chance at some wintry precipitation here in Middle TN and South Central KY. My current thinking is that it won't be much at all, but some places could see a dusting to a half and inch. And most likely place is in SE TN and on the Plateau where most of the moisture will be. For tonight the NWS office in Louisville is calling for the chance at freezing rain tonight for those areas. While Nashville is saying that we have a snow chance tonight, but our temps. should stay above freezing so I don't expect much in the way of travel problems come tomorrow morning. The temps. will be dropping all day today, so if you think it is cold this morning...it will just get colder as the day wears on. Have a great Weds.!

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Middle TN Flood Watch: 12/9

The NWS office in Nashville has just issued a Flood Watch for all of Middle TN tonight due to the excessive amount of rain we have gotten and will continue to get well into the morning hours of Wednesday. A Flood Watch is issued when current forecasts show the potential of area floodings in any given spot due to heavy, prescient rain. Most areas tonight will see any extra 1-2" of rain not counting what you got this morning and afternoon. The watch is in effect til 6 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Windy and Wet Tuesday

And with that wind whipping around today, the NWS in Louisville has issued a Wind Advisory for places in South Central KY and I would expect Nashville to issue one for us here in Middle TN shortly due to these gusty, hazardous winds. If you are out driving today, please use extreme caution with the wind and rain all about. Even with the rain in our forecast. I'm forecasting a high in Nashville of 61ºF and that is only the second time we have seen temps. in the 60's here for a good while. (The past 60º day was on Thanksgiving.) It looks like that most of the really stormier weather will stay to our south and south west, but I can't rule out an isolated storm or two when the line moves through our region. Fred, Matt, and I will monitor the situation closely here at the Highland Rim Station. Have a good Tuesday everyone!

Monday, December 8, 2008

Warmer Monday; Wetter and Stormier Mid-Week

This morning you will wake up to lows below freezing, but not in the teens like we have seen the previous nights. We will have a light south wind (5-10 mph) that will help boost the temps. into the low to mid 50's for most folks, but a few areas could stay in the upper 40's for a high today. And with this south wind prevailing, this will ripen our moisture for the stormier activity that will sweep through our region on Tuesday and Weds. At this point it looks like most of our severe weather will be to our south, but a few embedded storms could form here and have the potential to have gusty, damaging winds with them. But I'm not forecasting a widespread event by any means.

Nashville: mid 50's
Clarksville: mid 50's
Cookeville: low to mid 50's
Columbia: mid 50's
Manchester: low to mid 50's

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Blog Results: Beginning TN/KY Winter Snow

" How Much Snow Have You Gotten Thus Far? "
A Light Dusting
3 (20%)

A Couple Snow Events (No Accum.)
2 (13%)

One Snow Event (No Accum.)
4 (26%)

None
3 (20%)

What is Snow?
3 (20%)

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Overnight Rain Pushing Out...Cold Air Pushes In


As the overnight rain pushes out of the Mid-South region, we shouldn't see a big warm up from what this morning is. Today will be a lot like Tuesday was with the steady high's staying in the 30's, but without the rain/ snow hanging around all day. Now the leftover moisture on the Rim and Plateau could change over the light snow showers this morning, but it won't last all day and none of it will stick with everyone's temps. in the mid to upper 30's. We reached our high temp. last night before the heavy rain with the cold front arrived.

Nashville: upper 30's
Clarksville: mid to upper 30's
Cookeville: mid 30's
Columbia: mid to upper 30's
Manchester: mid to upper 30's

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Cold Night; Quick Warm-Up!

After many kids enjoyed their day off....(sorry to those who weren't), we looked poised to have a warm day tomorrow. But before that, let us get the cold out of the way, and I said COLD!!!

For tomorrow, our area can expect highs in the Upper 50's to 60's!! This is due to a 15-30 m.p.h. south wind getting pumped into area. I wouldn't be surprised to hear if we have a Lake Wind Advisory, or High Wind Warning placed on us tomorrow. If we are, and if you plan on spending the day on a lake with the warmer temps. wear a LIFE JACKET!!!!! Those winds can cause rough chop on Lakes and cause smaller vessels to capsize!

By late Wednesday night, we'll have a line of showers push in to the Mid-State, via another cold front. You can expect some moderate rain and a few embeded thunderstorms...not expecting ANY severe weather out of the stronger cells.

After the front moves through, kiss the warm-up, bye-bye. Area highs Thursday will only be in the 40's!!
HAVE A GOOD NIGHT!!

Rim and Plateau's Icy Commute

Due to the icy start, some of the Northern and Eastern counties have decided to close or delay the start of school. We had some surprise snow last evening that left another good coating of snow on the deck and road this time. With the current temps. in Middle TN ranging from the low 30's to the low 20's, the roads will take some time to clear, but the skies are clearing out so when that sun rises in the east...the temperatures will bounce back pretty well and we should see area temps. be in the 40's with no snow or sleet or rain around and a south wind pushing the temps. up. So for tomorrow all area schools should go as planned and on schedule.

Nashville: mid 40's
Clarksville: mid to upper 40's
Cookeville: low to mid 40's
Columbia: mid 40's
Manchester: low to mid 40's

UPDATE: Clay, Jackson, Trousdale, Overton, and Pickett counties changed from 2 hour delays to closed. And Fentress has changed from 1 hour delay to closed.

Monday, December 1, 2008

SCHOOL CLOSINGS

Well I can say it...that was a flop! We didn't receive the once expected wintery wonderland that we came to wish for...oh well the winter season is still young.....On another note..happy December 1st!!

SCHOOL CLOSINGS

Winter Weather System; Dec. 1st

As you can tell, you more then likely didn't get any accumulation from last night's event, but tonight the places on the Rim and Plateau have another shot at accumulation before this system pulls out late Monday evening for them. And with the snow and mix coming tonight as well...our temps. won't be a problem this time. I'm forecasting the Rim and Plateau lows to range anywhere from 24ºF-28ºF so the sticking will be more prone in these areas. For many others in Middle TN your low should reach the freezing mark tonight, but most of the moisture will be on the Plateau and Rim so your accumualtion amounts should be limited.

* The school closing are becoming to numerous for me to keep up with. So if you want to check to see if you are out, go to WKRN.com and click on their link for school closings.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Evening Outlook

As your day comes to a close.....mine is just beginning!! I will beup all night updating the blog and the Winter Weather that could come to town tonight and tomorrow. As of now..it doesn't appear to be too significant. Areas south of Nashville could receive a light dusting..but some of our Northern Counties could receive up to an Inch of snow, especially areas on the Eastern Highland Rim and Cumberland Plataue.

Tonight should remain the same as it has been today...just a bit colder. Cloud cover should continue for most...though a few areas tonight could see some breaks.

Have a Safe Warm Night!!

Afternoon Outlook

Well....it is here..we just received a report of flurries flying in South Gallatin. But that's not the only ones. Middle Tennesseeans are in for a cold, snowy night. Temperatures will drop down enough for us to see some snow. We're already running a 70% chance of seeing some of the white stuff!
Tonight will remain mostly cloudy...then the snow will move in late tonight, and should still be falling into the morning.

Remember to tune in to the Highland Rim TN WX Blog tonight and Tommorow for up-to-the-minute School Closings and Major Traffic Issues.

If you receive any snow...please send us some pictures!! All you need to do is include Your Name Location and Where the Picture was taken and of what!

Be sure to check in for our nighttime forecast!!

Wet Morning; Snow Tonight


Good morning on a very wet and somewhat cold day. As Charles has pointed out SNOW is the topic of Tennessee Weather Today! Tonight as area temperatures drop, our snow chances will rise. But that's later. Here's your HighlandRimTNWX Forecast.


Today:
Cloudy with A.M. Rain Showers
High 44 degrees
Winds at 10-15 m.p.h.

Tonight:
Snow Likely
Low near 32 degrees

Monday:
Snow Likely
High near 38

**As of yet no school closings have been reported...but follow the Highland Rim Blog for School Closings and Traffic Reports Today and Tomorrow as this situation unfolds**
Rain bands are still present in the Middle Tennessee area. Areas that can be expecting this activity within the next couple hours are:
-Cookeville
-Lafayette
-Sparta
Have a GREAT Safe Day...and stay tuned for more on the wintry weather situation!

Last SnowTrac Map for November 30th System

The only changes I have made from yesterday's SnowTrac forecast, is that I moved all the dark blue shaded areas out of TN and put them into KY. And I've also moved the gray (no accumulation area) up some places. WKRN meteorologist Davis Nolan mentioned that some of the county school systems north and east of Nashville could get out tomorrow, and WTVF meteorologist Kelly Cox showed a map this morning where places north and east of Nashville would get around 1" of snow to accumulate. So with those predictions, I'm finding that we could wake up too a good snow cover tomorrow here at the station.

*I shaded Savannah, TN in pink for a reason. Savannah, part of NWS in Memphis' DMA region, were mentioned in this morning's outlook stating that they might issue Winter Weather Advisories for that area and places in their DMA. If they where to do that, I wouldn't doubt it one bit if Nashville decided to follow suit and issue the same thing for many of it's counties (especially the places in NE and Northern Middle TN). So keep those fingers crossed people.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Updated November 30th SnowTrac Map

And just so everyone knows, these snowfall totals are being very generous. The most out of the system we may end up getting is 1" and that would be on the Plateau where I think 1.5" could fall.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Black Friday Forecast; November 30th SnowTrac Map

Here's the Highland Rim SnowTrac map (from the weatherunderground site) for the November 30th possible winter event. The current thinking is that most places along the KY state line and on the Rim and Plateau, will see some accumulation. While places along the AL state line might see a dusting on the grassy surfaces. The only thing keeping this from being a huge event is the potential of the ground temps. being too high to support much in the way of snow. While my forecast map says Nov. 30th, this event looks to continue into Monday with an all day snow/mix occurring with temps. barely getting to 36ºF anywhere in Middle TN and South Central KY.

As I push that winter threat aside for a bit, the temperatures today won't be as warm as yesterday, but they will still be better then the 40ºF with a WC of 32º days. I'm forecasting a high of 55ºF for Nashville today with many areas not getting out of the low 50's. Have a great Friday everyone!

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Thanksgiving Forecast!

I thought this picture suited our turkey brethren quite well for Thanksgiving! And since today is Thanksgiving please take the time out of your hectic schedule to ponder on what you are have, cause we have more then we could ever imagine and I can confess that I don't thank God enough for the things he has given me.

And too add to the thankfulness, the ironic thing is that for the first time in 3 weeks, our temperature will be above average and it happens to fall on Thanksgiving. I'm forecasting a high in Nashville of around 63ºF today, with little to no cloud cover over head. Now come this weekend all of this will change, I'm thinking we have a great shot at some wintry weather this weekend, but I'm either going to make a post tonight or in tomorrow's post about this possible event, since it garners its own post. Happy Thanksgiving to all!!

Mid-South Regional Thanksgiving Forecast

Nashville: low 60's
Memphis: upper 60's
Louisville, KY: upper 50's
Atlanta, GA: mid to upper 60's
Birmingham, AL: upper 60's
Raleigh, NC: upper 50's to low 60's

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

11/25 Forecast; No Rain, Better Tuesday

As we roll out another day before our Thanksgiving breaks (mine comes tomorrow!) the weather should be more doable then yesterday's wet and dreey day. The temperature won't get out of the upper 40's, but we should have mostly clear skies throughout the day, but what is keep our temps. down is the west wind we will see today. Come tomorrow however, it looks like we will get somewhat of a south wind and that will push our temps. back up to almost average for this time of year (upper 50's to low 60's). Your Thanksgiving day continue to looks dry and warmer, but on Black Friday I'm forecasting the chance at a passing shower or two for you holiday shoppers, but it shouldn't be enough rain to slow you down any.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Blog Poll Results: Favorite Types of Severe WX

"What Type of Severe Weather Do You Like Most?"


Tornadoes
1 vote

Hail
0 votes

Wind
1 vote

NONE OF IT!
3 votes

All of it!
5 votes

Thanks to all for voting...I guess you can tell which one I voted for. :) A new blog poll is in effect and it has something to do with Middle TN and South Central KY weather!

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Cooler Weather Continues

With the arrival of yet another cold front, the temperatures will be keep below average for another day and even longer. Yesterday we saw our high reach to around 50º's give or take a degree, but today, those 50's won't be around due to a NW wind from this front passing through us today. The morning lows didn't reach no where near as low as last night's did, but with this cold front the temps. won't rebound like they did yesterday. I'm looking for the average Middle TN high to be around 45ºF and SCK's average high being 44ºF. Hope everyone has an enjoyable Thursday!

Nashville: mid 40's; WC: mid to upper 30's
Clarksville: mid 40's; WC: upper 30's
Cookeville: mid to upper 40's; WC: low 40's
Columbia: mid 40's; WC: mid to upper 30's
Manchester: mid to upper 40's; WC: upper 30's

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta; Weds. Forecast

I want to give a big THANK YOU to Leah Robertson for taking these pictures of the Albuquerque Balloon Festival. Leah has sent me storm picture before as well from New Mexico earlier this year. This first image really caught my eye and just shows you how many people where out and about in this fiesta. And Leah even told me that this picture doesn't do justice to just how many balloons where actually in flight that day.
Now this picture is my favorite of them all. How many times have you guys seen a Darth Vader Hot Air balloon? From looking at these pictures, I hope one day I get a chance to go out into Albuquerque and see this event unfold. Thanks again Leah for sharing these amazing photos.
* Now onto the weather aspect of things, after this cold start to the morning (this morning is the coldest start for some this winter year) we will rebound nicely in the temperature department and we should see those bank thermometer's reach the 50º mark later on today. That would be about 10º's warmer then yesterday. Most of the models are keeping the next wet chance out of here til Monday of next week where we could see a front come through and give us yet another shot of cold weather behind the system.
Nashville: low 50's
Clarksville: low 50's
Cookeville: upper 40's to low 50's
Columbia: low 50's
Manchester: low 50's

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Out the Door Forecast: 11/18

Having yet another late start so I'm having to give, you, my blog readers the fast forecast. So for today, you can expect here in Middle TN and South Central KY cold and windy conditions. The high should reach the 40º mark, but it probably won't go much higher then that come this afternoon. Like I mentioned yesterday, this whole week will be below normal with the highest Nashville temp. not getting to 60º anytime this week. But with this cold air mass in place, the moisture factor looks to be out of the picture for anyone this week as well...it looks more and more likely that this weekend will be dry rather then wintry like first thought.

*WC- Wind Chill

Nashville: low 40's; WC in the mid 30's
Clarksville: low 40's; WC in the mid 30's
Cookeville: upper 30's; WC in the low 30's
Columbia: low 40's; WC in upper 30's
Manchester: upper 30's to low 40's; WC in the low to mid 30's

Monday, November 17, 2008

Below Normal Week...Weather Wise

After our weekend flurry fiesta...the rest of the work week will tend to follow in the cold temps. footsteps with our temperatures staying below average for much, if not all of this week. And in keeping with the cold temperatures, we could see a NW wind as well to keep the wind chill down in the 40's and 30's.

By next weekend, the models are showing yet another front coming through our region and with it comes rain and back side flurries/snow showers. But that is still 5-6 days away and anything can change in that amount of time as we have seen before. Hope everyone has a great Monday.

Nashville: upper 40's
Clarksville: upper 40's
Cookeville: mid to upper 40's
Columbia: upper 40's
Manchester: mid to upper 40's

Friday, November 14, 2008

Out The Door Forecast: 11/14

I'm having to pack to go to Kentucky so I'm having to get this post done and done fast.

Today: look for wet and windy (15-20 sustained gust to 25-30) conditions the wetter weather should begin right as football games go on tonight, but most of the heavier rain should hold off til the overnight hours into Saturday morning. High's range from 64-67ºF today.

Saturday: look for wetter and colder conditions. While Friday looks relatively warm, Saturday will be quite the opposite. Our temps. will be falling throughout the day rather then warming and our high could come at midnight or sometime during the early morning hours right before the rains arrives and stays Saturday while changing to flurries!/ light snow showers! Saturday evening.

Sunday: Expect much the same like Saturday but minus the rain and add in flurries! Some of the models are taking much of the moisture out of our region, but since cold air can't hold moisture...I think we will (most likely places Rim and Plateau) see some flurries fly off and on Sunday morning.

Don't forget to vote in the blog poll at the top of the site.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Another Rainy Day; Snowy Weekend?

Today, it looks like we have another chance at rain coming in from the SW. Yesterday, the rain wasn't as common around areas like I though it would be, but for today...it is going to be their. Many places in Middle TN and South Central KY will receive amounts over 1" of rain from this system. And on Thursday and Friday, their is still an outreached chance of strong to severe t'storms, but don't I'm not counting on it thus far.

And after the cold front passes, our temps. will take a nose-dive southward for just a little while, cause on Sunday, our high's here are barely going to get out of the 40's in my forecast. And with these low temps...if we have enough moisture left we could see some flurries on the back side of this system so that is something to continue to watch.

Nashville: mid to upper 50's; 90% chance
Clarksville: mid 50's; 100% chance
Cookeville: mid 50's; 80% chance
Columbia: mid to upper 50's; 100% chance
Manchester: mid 50's; 90% chance

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Wet Veteran's Day; Much Wetter Week

Don't Forget to remember ALL of the veteran's who fought for this country in previous wars. These men and women have more courage then may of us could ever imagine, so please take the time sometime during your day to thank them for their service.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Warmer Monday; Flurries By Weekend?

As many of us Middle Tennesseans wake up to 20º readings, today's high should reach higher then what yesterday brought us, cause today we don't have the cloud cover around the keep the cold air trapped. With that being said, when I say warmer, I mean the high will probably get to around the 51-54ºF today which will be 7-10ºF warmer for some then what yesterday brought. We don't see rain enter the picture til tomorrow evening and into the early morning hours. The NWS office here in Nashville is saying that our low will get to around 34ºF tonight with the chance of rain, so we ALMOST reached that 32º mark for snow, but I don't think we will quite make it.

And as I mention snow, this weekend is looking better and better for snow flurries/ snow showers to form Saturday night into Sunday morning. It won't be much due to it being leftover moisture from the system, but we are currently thinking that enough moisture will be leftover for some people (especially the Plateau people) to at least see some flurries fly. Places on the Plateau might even see a dusting of snow on their patio decks, much like the last flurries we had.

Nashville: low to mid 50's
Clarksville: low to mid 50's
Cookeville: low to mid 50's
Columbia: low to mid 50's
Manchester: low to mid 50's

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Blog Poll Results

"How Cold Has It Been at Your House?"

27ºF- (Hard Freeze)- 3 votes

28ºF-30ºF (Light Freeze)- 0 votes

31ºF-32ºF (Frost)- 4 votes

32ºF+ (No Frost or Freeze Yet)- 2 votes

The lowest my temperature has gotten has been right around the 26ºF mark. Don't forget to vote in the new blog poll!

Friday, November 7, 2008

Rainy End to Work Week; Nice, Cooler Weekend



Too add to the text above, after this cold front passes, we Middle Tennesseans and South Central Kentuckians will be witness to much cooler weather. Where the high's won't reach the 70º mark anymore, but we will be back into a more fall like atmosphere which is where you should be on November the 7th weekend. Hope everyone has a great end to your work week.

Nashville: mid 60's; 40% this afternoon
Clarksville: mid to upper 60's
Cookeville: low to mid 60's; 70% chance this afternoon (watch for strong t'storms)
Columbia: mid 60's; 20% chance this afternoon
Manchester: low to mid 60's; 60% chance (watch for strong t'storms)

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Plains Severe Day; Great TN Weather

From looking at this tornado potential...it looks like areas in the SE KS and NE OK will be the most likely places to see the tornadoes and I agree with that reasoning and have agreed with it from the day we knew about this system. I expect to see 5-8 tornado reports from the Plains states today, but hail is going to be the primary threat.

As for as here...GREAT weather will continue for at least one more day before this same system comes through our region Thursday night. We here at the Highland Rim Station aren't forecasting any severe storms due to the model consistency of there being low amounts of instability and too it hitting overnight.

The high's today should easily hit the mid 70º mark today, and for November...that is just unheard of, but come this weekend, these 70º readings will feel like Florida weather cause we won't be in the 70's come this weekend...try more like mid 50's. At least we have ONE more day of nice weather.

Nashville: mid 70's (isolated upper 70's)
Clarksville: mid 70's
Cookeville: low to mid 70's
Columbia: mid 70's
Manchester: mid 70's

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Forecast; Severe Risk Thursday?

Man, is is good to be posting these again. And as you can tell, the SPC already has areas from the TN River, westward in a Slight risk for Thursday and Thursday night. From reading the outlook, it looks like the many severe risk will damaging winds, but hail is also going to be a threat with any storms that do form out ahead of the front. It doesn't appear that tornadoes will be a big issue do to the lack of lift in the atmosphere come Thursday, but that can't be said for places in the Plains that will have to deal with this system Weds and Weds night.

Now, as I push the severe risk to the side for a minute, today looks to be another great, November day with the high getting to around 72-75º with low humidity making it a fantastic day to get out and vote for the next President of the United States or to do whatever outdoor plan you might have in mind. Our next rain chance doesn't come til Thursday evening with this front and at this point it doesn't look like severe weather will be too big of a problem for us, due to the system hitting at the overnight hours and it just doesn't look like all the weather "science" will come together for us either.

Nashville: low to mid 70's
Clarksville: low 70's
Cookeville: low 70's
Columbia: low to mid 70's
Manchester: low to mid 70;s

Monday, November 3, 2008

Wonderful Day Ahead; 1 Day Til Election!

Oh boy is today going to be awesome! The weather couldn't get any better, especially for being the start of November! Even though this is a Monday, the weather looks and will feel more like a Saturday deal, so if you have the time, take a break or something and get out and enjoy this beautiful weather...cause I have a feeling it won't last much longer. The high;s today should reach well into the 70's with most places seeing reading around 74º-76º.

If you have yet to vote today would be a great time to vote cause the weather won't be slowing you down a bit. With tomorrow being Election Day, most TN and South Central KY school are out and that includes me and I will keep this blog informed on the latest election news as the day goes on...or when I'm not outside enjoying the weather!!! Have a great Monday everyone.

Nashville: mid 70's
Clarksville: mid 70's
Cookeville: low to mid 70's
Columbia: mid 70's
Manchester: low to mid 70's

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Mild Night; Severe Weather?

It was a rather mild day here in Middle Tennessee. Area temperatures got up into the 70's for many places. Gallatin's High was near 74. Tonight will be mild....er than some of the other, more chilly nights we have come to expect.

HighlandRim Road Report:
1-65 N. of Nashville: Moderate to Heavy Traffic, mainly due to Titans Game:Rush Hour

HighlandRim Forecast:
Tonight:


Mostly Clear with Patchy Fog
Low near 43 degrees



Monday:

Mostly Sunny
High near 75 degrees


Monday Night:

Clear
Low near 42 degrees

SEVERE WEATHER??


The Storm Prediction Center has East Tennessee outlined in a "Convective Outlook" for This THURSDAY. They are monitering the possibility of a "Squall Line", or a Solid or Nearly Solid Band of Active Thunderstorms sweeping across our area and bringing us some bad weather. For more information please visit the SPC at the Link above.


Have a good Safe Night!


Saturday, November 1, 2008

Cool Night; Tomorrow's Outlook



It will yet again be another cold night here in the Mid-State. Area lows will get down into the lower 40's maybe in some low lying areas get down to 37 degrees. It was a great day in the weather department today, I think we will repeat this tomorrow as the Green Bay Packers come to face the Hometown Titans.









Sunday Outlook:



High Near 73
Winds South Near 5 MPH.



Sunday Night:


Low Near 42
Winds Light



Have a Good Night!!

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Halloween Forecast

Another great day for us here in the Mid-State. Area Temperatures hovered in the high 60's throughout much of the day. Skies, again, remained clear. You can expect this weather for another several days. Looks like our next chance of rain is next Wednesday, but it is still WAY to early to write that in stone.

Tonight will remain Clear with a Low near 38 degrees.

Halloween looks perfect for Tennessee Trick-or-Treaters tomorrow.
Tomorrow: Sunny, High near 72 Degrees
Halloween Night: Clear with a low near 45 degrees

Have a safe, warm night!

Quick Forecast: 10/30

I'm not feeling the best this morning (people at my school are getting sick and I think it may of spread to me) so I'm just going to give you guys a quick forecast. Today, the high will be right around 70ºF so you can wave those 40º high's good bye for a while at least. Rain doesn't seem to become a factor til next week, so that should leave you with a good end of the week and the beginning of the weekend. Have a good, safe Thursday!

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Poll Results

Will You Be Watching The Show "Storm Chasers" This Year?

Yes: 4 votes

No: 1 vote

Maybe: 0 votes

Thanks for voting, and don't forget that the new episodes of "Storm Chasers" comes on at 10:00 est/9:00 central on Sunday nights. The new blog poll is now up and running!

Freeze!; Sunny, Warmer Afternoon Though

Since we had a hard freeze last night, here are some current reports in these select cites.

Westmoreland (Highland Rim Station): 26ºF
Cookeville: 30ºF
Nashville: 33ºF
Lawrenceburg: 29ºF
Bowling Green, KY: 32ºF
Dover: 28ºF
Hopkinsville, KY: 26ºF

So as you can tell, with most of these temperatures (minus Nashville's) most areas are still dealing with the frost and freezing at this point. We should see a warm up this afternoon and that will lead too a great, sunny day with high's getting close to 60ºF! That's going to feel great, especially when our temps. have barely even gotten out of the 40ºF these past few days. Have an awesome day everyone!

Nashville: upper 50's to low 60's
Clarksville: upper 50's to low 60's
Cookeville: mid to upper 50's
Columbia: upper 50's
Manchester: upper 50's

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Rim and Plateau Flurries, Freeze Warning Tonight

Yes! Winter now looks to be here in Middle TN, and so goes the growing season with the freeze we should see tonight. We didn't see a freeze here last night due to the clouds not breaking up and because the clouds didn't break up...flurries have been flying on the Rim and Plateau all night. As of right now, the NWS office in Nashville says that light snow is falling in Cookeville and Crossville this morning. None of it will stick (temperatures are at 36ºF in Cookeville and Crossville), but it is nice to see that we can have snow in October. Most of this activity will subside at around the 7-8 o'clock time frame.

Today will be much like yesterday...cold and windy. With the high's barely getting into the 50's if they even get that high.

Nashville: low 50's
Clarksville: upper 40's to low 50's
Cookeville: mid 40's
Columbia: low 50's
Manchester: upper 40's

Monday, October 27, 2008

Get Your Heaters On!!

Boy the title says it all! Freeze Warnings are now replacing the Previous Freeze Watches. This means that below freezing temperatures are anticipated and any outdoor plants or vegetation could be killed. Temperatures here in Gallatin are hovering in the lower 40's, i'm expecting temperatures to drop into the thirties by 9:30 pm. Now if you are going to the Titans Game tonight, TAKE A JACKET OR FIVE!!!! It will be EXTREMELY cold. I know, with the wind blowing off the Cumberland River and it going into the stands, it will be unpleasent. And also, Please be vigilant of others in your area that may not have adequete heating or a way to stay warm. Give them a blanket or heater.

Here's Tonight's GraphiCast:



**If you are a HAM Radio operator in the Northern Mid-State, (Sumner, Robertson, Trousdale, and Macon Counties) Please tune into to the Tri-County SKYWARN First ever SKYWARN Training net. It will be at 8:00 pm tomorrow(Tuesday) on the 147.2400 Frequncy. I will be the Net Controller so give me a shout out and check in!!!

Good Night and GO TITANS!!!!!!

Brrrr....Cold Is Now Here

The NWS offices in both BNA (Nashville) and LOU (Louisville) have issued Freeze Watches for our areas for the freeze potential for both tonight and tomorrow night. My best guess tells me that we may all get into a Freeze Warning tomorrow night, with most of the area temperatures being below freezing for a short period.

As for today, it looks to be a cold all around day with the high's here on the Rim not getting out of the 40's while areas in and around Nashville will only get into the low 50's (52ºF high for Nashville). We will also have a N/NW wind today at 10-15 mph which will also put a bit of a wind chill in place. So Nashville's high of 52ºF, will more then likely only feel like 47ºF. And guys and gals....tomorrow will be even colder then today, so keep that in mind. Hope everyone has a safe a good Monday!

Nashville: low 50's
Clarksville: upper 40's to low 50's
Cookeville: mid to upper 40's
Columbia: upper 40's to low 50's
Manchester: upper 40's

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Middle TN Freeze Watch; Comfortable Sunday

The map above shows that all the areas of Middle TN and Highland Rim are in a Freeze Watch for Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This will be the first freeze of the year for many, but if you live in the Nashville suburbs you may not see a freeze this go around due to the UHIE (Urban Heat Island Effect) which I will possibly mention a lot this year and will come into play with the winter snows here.

But for today, you can expect much of the same like yesterday, dry and comfortable the only difference is, is that we will possibly see 70's today for many. You should get out and really enjoy today as over the next few days, the Artic chill will be in place over our region. Today would be a nice day for a Sunday drive across your county! Hope everyone has a terrific Sunday.
Nashville: low 70's
Clarksville: upper 60's to low 70's
Cookeville: upper 60's
Columbia: low 70's
Manchester: upper 60's to low 70's

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Another Chilly Night

After a cloudy start to the day this morning, clouds began to make their way out of Middle Tennessee. Today was another cool one, I think the cloud cover eraly kept the temperatures from getting up into the 70's. For tonight we are expecting temperatures to remain in the mid-to-lower 40's. The rest of your weekend looks to stay clear and cool right up into next week.

This Graphic is the 06Z run of a Surface Frontal System. As you can see we have a cold front moving through the Mid-South. This system won't bring us anything in the way of rain, but will drop our temperatures enough, to where Monday Night's Low appears to be 32 degrees! THAT'S FREEZING!!!(Literally!)

With that the National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Watch

Have a Great, Warm Night!!!

Clouds Out... Brief Warm-Up... Then Colder Weather Ahead!

Clouds associated with the late week storm system that brought us all the beneficial rain will be on the way out today. Still, most folks will have to deal with patchy dense fog this morning, due to calm winds and saturated ground. The sun will pop out during the afternoon and highs will climb into the lower 60s across the Mid State area. Winds turn southwesterly tomorrow, and a short-lived warm-up ensues. Afternoon highs will climb to near 70...but don't let it fool you... changes ARE on the way. By Monday, a strong cold front will be barreling southeastward, knocking highs Monday back firmly into the 50s on brisk northwest winds. Expect a widespread light frost both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Afternoon highs will slowly moderate into the low to mid 60s through the week, with highs reaching 70 by Friday.

Today's Hometown QuickCast

Nashville: Afternoon sun with a high of 61
Cookeville: Some afternoon clearning with a high of 60
Lawrenceburg: Afternoon sun with a high of 62
Manchester: Afternoon sun with a high of 61
Clarksville: Afternoon sun with a high of 61
Gallatin: Afternoon clearing with a high of 60

Have a great Saturday everybody!

Friday, October 24, 2008

Rains Subsiding; Weekend Forecast

After a GREAT rainfall day, we can expect Middle Tennessee's CoCoRaHs observers to chime in their reports from around the area. I can say, for one, it rained ALL DAY at Gallatin and only started to subside after 2:30-3:00 pm! I'm sure I received a Fair amount of precipitation from this system.

Weekend Outlook:
Saturday, Partly Sunny with a High Near 63 degrees

Saturday Night, Cloudy With a Chance of Rain at 30% Low near 40 degrees

Sunday, Mostly Sunny, High near 75 degrees

Sunday Night, Clear with a low near 42 degrees
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT PLEASE USE CAUTION!!!!

Rainy Friday; Rainfall Amounts

Here's the HPC's rainfall prediction map for over the next 5 days. Most areas in Middle TN will see totals right around the 1" mark it seems. Isolated spots could see more (more then likely the western parts of Middle TN) and some spots might see less then an inch (more then likely the eastern parts of Middle TN and Cumberland Plateau). But once you get the rain to pass your area...the weekend looks nice and dry. Hope everyone has a great Friday!

Nashville: low to mid 50's; 100% chance
Clarksville: low 50's; 80% chance
Cookeville: low to mid 50's; 100% chance
Columbia: low 50's; 100% chance
Manchester: low to mid 50's; 100% chance

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Windy and Wet Weather Approach

This is the potent system to the west which will be bringing its winds and rains to us tomorrow. The winds will pick up today, especially in the afternoon hours, so remember that when driving on your way home from work or school. The rains look to arrive here in Middle TN by the morning, rush hour commute. This rain is much needed and it looks like the severe potential is will be at 0, so no risk for severe weather in this rain which is good news. The rain does look to clear the area before Friday night, so the football games should be fine , even though you could see a passing shower or two Friday evening, it will be nothing like what Friday morning will be. The high's will only get into the mid 50's and with rain in the area...it will be a chilly Friday.

Nashville: upper 60's; clouds building by afternoon
Clarksville: mid to upper 60's; clouds building by the noon hour
Cookeville: upper 60's; clouds building by the evening hours
Columbia: upper 60's; clouds building by afternoon
Manchester: upper 60's; clouds building by mid-afternoon

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Quick Forecast: 10/22

Good morning everyone, I'm having a late start so I'm going to just have to give you the details of today's weather. Like it was yesterday, today will be clear, but we will have breezy conditions out there so keep that in mind as you are driving home this afternoon. Have a good and safe Weds.

Nashville: upper 60's (isolated low 70's)
Clarksville: upper 60's
Cookeville: upper 60's
Columbia: upper 60's
Manchester: upper 60's

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Cold Night; Rain Chances on the Rise

It is going to be another chilly night for us in the Mid-State. Temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 40's for most in the area. Skies will also clear before tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be a picture perfect day, but unfortunantly it won't last. After tomorrow, get your umbrellas ready, for Thursday through Saturday we have rain chances stacked up, so it will be a relatively soggy way to end the work week. But let's just look forward to tomorrow, shall we?

Tomorrow's Forecast:
*Morning
Clear
8:15 Temp. 49 degrees

*Day
Mostly Sunny
High Near 68 degrees

*Night
Partly Cloudy
Lows near 39 degrees

Have a Great Night!!!!!

Calm In The Weather Department; Rainy Weekend?

As today seems like another calm, "safe" weather day, we could really still use some rain. Today won't be that day for rain, but later on this week we could see some showers/t'showers move into our region and bring us that needed wet weather. Most of the models are showing the rain leave our area by the time the weekend rolls around, so that would mean our weekend looks like it should be mostly rain free and sunshine abundant.

Nashville: upper 60's (isolated 70's)
Clarksville: upper 60's
Cookeville: mid to upper 60's
Columbia: upper 60's
Manchester: mid to upper 60's

Monday, October 20, 2008

Frost Advisories; Below Average Week

This morning, if you hadn't already noticed, we have some areas of frost here in Middle TN and some patchy areas of frost in South Central KY. At this time yesterday morning, places on the Highland Rim and Plateau where in a frost advisory, but no one else was. Well this morning all of Middle TN is in a frost advisory with temps. getting down into the mid to upper 30's.

Speaking of temperatures, all of this week you can expect the temperature to stay relatively below average for this time of year. We are normally at 70ºF at this time, but all this week we should stay in the 60's with possibly some isolated 70º spots. We see our next shot of rain and cooler air come in by Thursday evening and Friday night which is fine with me! Hope everyone has a good Monday.

Nashville: upper 60's to low 70's
Clarksville: upper 60's
Cookeville: upper 60's
Columbia: upper 60's
Manchester: upper 60's

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Blog Poll Results; "Storm Chasers Show"

Are You In CoCoRAHs?
Yes
4 (50%)

No
2 (25%)

What is That?
1 (12%)

Heard of it, Haven't Joined
1 (12%)

Votes so far: 8

Thanks to everyone for voting! Don't forget to vote in the new blog poll in place of this one.

* I'd like to remind everyone that the infamous Discovery Channel show "Storm Chasers" will be airing its first episode tomorrow night at 10:00 on Discovery. Reed Timmer and his fellow TVN chasers appeared on the show this year. The site he runs is called www.tornadovideos.net, so go check it out!

Friday, October 17, 2008

TN/KY Winter Forecast 08-09' Season

08-09’ TN and KY Winter Outlook
  • Winter Headlines
  • It looks as if the precipitation overall will be slightly below average for not only TN and KY, but for most of the Southeastern states.

    And as far as temperatures go, it seems as they will be above average for much of the winter period, especially as we enter the February period.

    For the ones who may remember, you have probably seen this same year mentioned in many other outlooks, the winter year of 89-90’ looks like the best winter resemblance of what this year may become. And I’ll explain that more at the end of the outlook.

    December

For most of us Middle Tennessean’s and South Central Kentuckians, December may be a “bluff” month of winter wx. I say that because it looks as if the cold air will be in place, but the lack of moisture may cause us to not get much snow at all. If we do get an increased amount of moisture, then December could be a fun month and that is why I call it the “bluff” month cause January and February will be much different.

  • January
If we get any decent amount of snow here in Middle TN and South Central KY, it will more then likely be in the month of January. The moisture will be on the increase, but so will the temps. It does look cold enough, however, that we could see one good TN “snowstorm’ (3+”) occur in this month. Also in this month, due to the moisture and temperature increase…severe weather becomes an issue.
  • February
As far as the month of February goes, if you’re looking for snow, travel to a ski slope in Colorado or Montana cause you are not getting any snow here. I expect to see an active severe weather month in February instead of a winter month due to the warm, above average temperatures and moisture. February looks to have the best precipitation chance out of the 3 months, and as that is a good thing, our severe risk will be amplified when any strong cold fronts comes through our area much like we saw last year.
  • Conclusion
To end on a good note, I will say that for us here in TN and KY, it seems that we will have everything in place to at least have an average 08-09’ winter with many school closings and snow days! I’m going to say that areas of South Central KY may get a total of 11-13” this year while areas in Nashville will see totals of maybe 8-10” this winter. The thing that irritates me is that we will have all the ingredients for snow, but the month that has the most moisture, also will have the highest temperature avg. of all 3 months (February) and then in December, we will have the cold air, but lack the moisture. If we could turn some things around, I’d say this winter would be fun, but we can’t and should still see at least an average snowfall season!

Chilly, Fall Like Weather Pattern In Full Swing

After yesterday's rain/mist event, today will be much different in the fact that we will have sunny skies and highs right around the 65ºF-68ºF depending on your location. I hope everyone saw some rain yesterday, I was out til 11 o'clock last evening and it was still misting here in Lafayette like it was all day. With my rain gauge out of service, I don't know how much rain fell here, if you'd like to post how much rain you got at your location, leave a comment in the comment section. What can be a better end to a work week then a 60º, sunny skied day? Have a great Friday everyone!

* I'm going to be posting my TN/KY Winter Outlook later on today, so be sure you come check out my predictions for the upcoming winter.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Fall Type Weather Here...And Here To Stay?

As I mentioned in the radar photo above, the rain has yet to enter the Nashville metro area, but it has begun raining in the Dover and Paris areas of TN. All of this wet weather is associated with a cold front positioned around Paducah like I also mentioned. It should reach the Nashville area by the lunchtime rush, so be careful if your out and about driving today. Most of the rain should be east of Nashville by the 6-7 o'clock period. There could still be some isolated spots of showers/t'showers in the Nashville area even after the 6-7 o'clock time frame so keep that in mind also.

From what the models are saying, it looks like we could be in this fall like pattern from here on out. I wouldn't be surprised at all if yesterday's 80º reading was the last of the year. Isn't that nice to know! Have a good Thursday everyone.

Nashville: upper 60's; 80% chance
Clarksville: mid to upper 60's; 80% chance
Cookeville: upper 60's to low 70's; 60% chance
Columbia: upper 60's; 80% chance
Manchester: low 70's; 60% chance

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Afternoon Update: 10/15

I hope you guys are out enjoying this great day as it looks like once this front comes through Thursday and Friday that we will be in a fall like pattern for at least a week. It's good to have sunshine today as the past couple of days have been partly to mostly cloudy depending on your location in TN and KY. Here are some of the current conditions in Middle TN and South Central KY. All of these reports are from weatherunderground.com

Sparta: 81ºF, Mostly Sunny
Lewisburg: 78ºF, Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny
Dickson: 86ºF, Mostly Sunny
Bowling Green, KY: 85ºF, Mostly Sunny
Gallatin: 83ºF, Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Warmth Stays...For a Little While At Least

As you guys may of found out yesterday, we had more cloud coverage then what I was expecting and that caused our temperature to not get as warm as I hoped it would of gotten. Since yesterday was a bit cloudier then anticipated, I feel like today will be much like yesterday in the cloudiness and dryness and the high only getting to about 80ºF. Like I mentioned in the blog title, this warmth won't be around much longer. As this cold front moves over us later on this week, it will not only bring rain, but it will bring cooler temperatures that don't look to rebound any time soon.

Nashville: upper 70's to low 80's
Clarksville: upper 70's to low 80's
Cookeville: upper 70's
Columbia: upper 70's to low 80's
Manchester: upper 70's to low 80's

Monday, October 13, 2008

Less Clouds and a little more toasty... Rain chances ahead???

Clouds hung tough again across the mid-state today as the easterly flow from the Atlantic remained. Clouds should break up a little more tomorrow, and this should allow our afternoon highs to shoot well into the mid 80s for tomorrow and Wednesday. Things should remain dry until around Thursday and Friday, when a cold front settling down toward the area will increase chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area. No severe weather is expected at this time, but we are nearing our fall tornado season... when we have to watch the passage of each cold front very carefully. Things clear out and cool down behind the cold front over the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows between 45 and 52.

Your Hometown Forecast.

City | Conditions | High | Low |
-------------------------------

Nashville | Mostly Sunny | 84 | 61
Cookeville | Mostly Sunny | 82 | 56
Clarksville | Partly Sunny | 83 | 59
Lawrenceburg | Mostly Sunny | 84 | 58
Manchester | Sunny | 83 | 57

Warm Autumn Day; Mid-Week Rain?

After what seemed like a short weekend, the next work week period has rolled around and as for the weather, you can expect the first few days to be like the weekend was, warm and dry. Now as we head on into the Thursday and Friday time frame, that is when our next significant rain chance comes into play with an advancing cold front. But for today you don't really have to worry about anything weather wise as it should stay relatively warm and dry. Hope everyone has a good Monday...if that is even possible!

Nashville: low 80's
Clarksville: low 80's
Cookeville: upper 70's to low 80's
Columbia: low 80's
Manchester: low 80's

* Since I'm out of school for Fall Break this entire week, I'm going to be making my Middle TN Winter Outlook forecast and post it sometime this week. It would more then likely be posted on Thursday or Friday.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Nice, clear weather ahead... at least for the next few days....

The upper-level storm system that brought our rain during the middle of the week has moved off to the southeast, and high pressure is re-establishing itself across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The next several days should be partly cloudy to mostly clear, with highs in the lower 80s... and overnight lows in the lower 60s. No chance of rain for the next few days, but that changes toward late Tuesday and especially Wednesday, as a cold front associated with a major winter storm in the Rockies and High Plains this weekend eventually makes it in this direction and washes out. We're not expecting any significant threat of severe weather with this system, and really, rain chances should only increase into the 20-30% range by mid-week next week...as the dynamics with the system will have been long gone into Canada...and any showers or thunderstorms will be scattered.

Friday Night Lights

If you're headed out to any high school football games across the area this evening, the weather will be absolutely great. Temperatures will be around the mid 70s for kickoff, dropping into the upper 60s to near 70 by 4th quarter. No rain and light winds are expected.

Your Hometown Forecast

City | Conditions | High | Low |
-------------------------------

Nashville | Mostly Sunny | 82 | 61
Cookeville | Partly Cloudy | 81 | 60
Clarksville | Mostly Sunny | 80 | 62
Lawrenceburg | Mostly Sunny | 83 | 61
Manchester | Mostly Sunny | 82 | 62

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Rainfall Totals; Foggy Start, Sunny End

Here's the weatherunderground storm rainfall total map from the system that brought many areas .50" to 1" of rain. People along the I-65 corridor had amounts upward of 3-5". We had right around 3" here at the Highland Rim Station. This will help out the drought situation, but it will in no way clear it out.

Since we had this rain and clearing skies, fog has developed across the area making the morning drive a rough go. Please use extreme caution if your going to work this morning. The fog should dissipate at around the 9-10 o'clock time frame and then we will be left with a sunny, dry day. Have a good Thursday everyone!

Nashville: upper 70's
Clarksville: upper 70's
Cookeville: mid to upper 70's
Columbia: upper 70's
Manchester: mid 70's

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Soggy Day; Sunny Week in Store

After a very soggy day today, Middle Tennessee is beginning to total up our rainfall estimates and measures. Here in Gallatin at my home, we received 3.38 inches of rain in the past two days. We were running a 2.85' deficit for the year, yeah we're now back to normal. The cold front that generated this activity for us has now pushed through Middle Tennessee and is now heading on the Highland Rim and Cumberland Platuea. Clearing skies can be expected after 10:00pm for most.

Forecast:
Tonight, Mostly Cloudy, Becoming Partly Cloudy, Low near 65 degrees

Thursday. Sunny, High near 82 degrees

Friday, Partly Cloudy, High near 84 degrees
Have a Safe Night and Take it easy on those Roadways!

Quick Forecast- 10/8

For today, expect wet conditions all day long with clearing from west to east later this afternoon. Be careful if you're out and about as the roads will be slick due to the lack of rain mixing with the oil from your vehicle. The high's should get only to 70 due to the rain being around. Hope everyone has a great Wednesday.

Nashville: low 70's; 80% chance
Clarksville: low to mid 80's; 40% chance
Cookeville: upper 60's to low 70's; 100% chance
Columbia: low 70's; 60% chance
Manchester: low 70's; 90% chance

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Remembering a Hero; Nighttime Forecast

I will first be posting on the most important weather news of the day. Jerry Orchanian, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Nashville, passed away last Saturday as a result of battling cancer. I was shocked and DEEPLY saddened by the news. I have known Mr. Orchanian since 2006 when he taught a SKYWARN Storm Spotter Class in Gallatin. I had so many questions about the warning process and how things were conducted, pay, and where to get the best education, i'm sure I overwhelmed him with my questions, but he took the time and answered the questions. He even went out of his way to mail me a list of Colleges and Universities offering Meteorological degrees. A few months after the class I E-Mailed him to see if he could let me take a tour of the facility and show me how it's done in the NWS. It was so AMAZING, it was a great day, me and Jerry talked about the Weather, SKYWARN and MANY other topics on my visit there. It was an experience I will never forget. So as I logged on this morning and read the devestating news, I could only think how great of a man he was. As I went to lunch today I glanced outside and to my surprise it was raining...no pouring. I tried to think of the forecast and it hit me....This is Jerry's message to us that all is well and he is in heaven. We will miss Jerry greatly and wish his family the best in this very difficult time.

Forecast: Tonight- Mostly Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain. Low's near 75.

Stormy Afternoon, Windy Conditions; Jerry Orchanian

As I'm typing this blog post, I'm hearing the wind chimes ding outside with those breezy conditions. All this wind we are seeing is the rain coming in from our west that will affect us later on this afternoon and this evening. It will also affect us guys on the Highland Rim and Plateau region tomorrow and that will keep our temperature down into the 60's and 70's. Severe weather doesn't look likely due to the lack of instability, but a few embedded stronger t'storms could have gusty winds in them, but don't expect anything too rough. It's great to finally be forecasting wet weather, we really need this rain and it looks like everyone should get some amount out of this event. Some places may get over an inch from this system where there are currently flash flood warnings out for areas in eastern Arkansas due to the heavy rain.

Nashville: upper 70's to low 80's; 50% chance
Clarksville: mid to upper 70's; 70% chance
Cookeville: upper 70's to low 80's
Columbia: upper 70's to low 80's; 50% chance
Manchester: low 80's

* Also, the NWS in Nashville is mourning the lose of the Warning Coordinator and spotter class coordinator Jerry Orchanian. He had been battling a long stint with colon cancer and was only 61. He will be missed deeply, but he is in a much better place now and not feeling any more pain! Please keep his family and co-workers in your prayers. Davis Nolan of News 2 did a kind write-up about this sad ordeal. You can read it at www.nashvillewx.com

Monday, October 6, 2008

Warmer, Still Dry Though

As you begin your work week this week, you can expect a warmer and yet still dry start with the high's getting into the mid to upper 80's today. Rain does enter the picture however come mid-week and so does the chance of some isolated severe storms. We here at the Highland Rim Station will keep you updated on that potential as that situation progresses. But for today expect hotter and dry conditions. Have a great Monday everyone! Don't forget to vote in the blog poll, it doesn't have much time left.

Nashville: mid to upper 80's
Clarksville: mid 80's
Cookeville: mid 80's
Columbia: mid to upper 80's
Manchester: mid to upper 80's

Friday, October 3, 2008

Patchy Frost; 70º Day Ahead

The counties in light blue on this map by weatherunderground, have the chance at seeing some patchy, light frost this morning when the low got down into the low 40's to upper 30's and the clear skies we had overnight helped this to be possible. We have a current temperature of 40ºF here while areas in Nashville, with the heat island effect, have a temperature of around 45ºF. This frost should wear off by sunrise and we shall see a day in the 70's occur for many in the Mid State, areas on the upper part of the Plateau may not get out of the 60's again, but that will be a very few.

Nashville: low to mid 70's
Clarksville: low 70's
Cookeville: low 70's
Columbia: low to mid 70's
Manchester: low to mid 70's

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Crisp Morning; Cool Afternoon

This morning is the coldest it has been for Nashville all year and for many other TN locations too. Our low got to around 40ºF last night and as of right now it is 43ºF and we also are going to have a slight N/NW wind in place that will make it feel cooler then it actually is just like yesterday. Rain still isn't our 7 day future, but some of the models are painting more of a warmer/wetter period to come into play later on this month. Models do change in an instant sometimes, so we will continue to monitor this situation here at the Highland Rim TN WX Station.

Nashville: upper 60's
Clarksville: upper 60's
Cookeville: mid to upper 60's
Columbia: upper 60's
Manchester: upper 60's

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Cool Sweep to Continue

The cool air that has been funneling into the mid-south will continue to bring us much of the same. For the week ahead expect much of the same, High's only in the High 60's to Low 70's. Clouds will not be a factor either as we continue to enjoy sunshine.

Sorry for the short post, Have a Good Night!

Fall Is In the Air

And my allergies are showing it too. Every year my allergies go off the wall when everything grows or dies. But that is a sure sign that winter is right around the corner, but we have to get through the fall severe threat first. There won't be any severe storm threat this afternoon as it will be calm and cool. Some people on the Rim and Plateau may not even get out of the 60's for the high today, and the overnight low will give justice to that cool high. So the weather words for today to tell your fellow workers and friends...cool and calm. Hope everyone has a great Wednesday.

Nashville: low 70's
Clarksville: low 70's
Cookeville: upper 60's to low 70's
Columbia: low 70's
Manchester: low 70's

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Cool Sweep Sets In; Nighttime Forecast

Another calm day for us in Middle Tennessee. As I said, the areas that received rain from the passage of the cold front. Not much fell in the way of rain for those who got it. But those who got it are lucky. We won't see much in the way of rain....or clouds for that matter, for the rest of the week as a ridge of High Pressure sets in for a LONG visit. As mentioned before, we woill see below-average temperatures for the remainder of the week.



Around the Mid-State:

Nashville: Sunny; 77 degrees

Smyrna: Mostly Sunny; 80 degrees

Tullahoma: Sunny; 79 degrees



Here's how our forecast is shaping up for the week ahead:



Wednesday: Sunny; High near 68 degrees



Thursday: Sunny; High near 67 degrees



Friday: Sunny; High near 74 degrees

Friday Night (Football): Clear; Low near 46

Have a Good Night!

Wet Morning; Cooler Weather Ahead

Matt's evening post last night tells the story on why this cool down will be in affect, but before the cool down, the cold front has to pass and that is what is occurring this morning. There is some light to moderate rain falling from the sky due to the cold front passage this morning which is mainly confined to the northern and eastern sections of Middle TN into the Rim and Plateau regions. We had some rain pass over the Highland Rim Station this morning, it didn't last long, but it was a good sign that rain can still fall in TN! Most of this action will be pushing off later this morning and that will leave us with a cooler and sunny afternoon. The high's shouldn't get out of the 70's today and those overnight low's will be LOW. Have a good Tuesday!

Nashville: upper 70's
Clarksville: upper 70's
Cookeville: mid to upper 70's
Columbia: upper 70's
Manchester: mid to upper 70's

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Changes in the Week Ahead

The title says it all. We have major changes coming to the Mid-South on Tuesday. A cold front will sweep across our area bringing temperatures down in a BIG way. Low 70's can be expected for the Tuesday-Friday timeframe with the best day being Wednesday for experiencing the low temperatures. Now for the rain department it appears that Monday Night and Tuesday Morning hold a slight chance of seeing a shower or two, I don't think this will be a widespread event, so i'll label it as a Isolated Chance, mainly in the Upper Counties (Montgomery, Robertson, Sumner, Macon, etc.,).

Other than that the weather department looks to be very quiet for a while.

Tonight:
Mostly Clear
Low's Near 59
Light Winds

Have a great night

And, GO TITANS 4-0 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FRANCHISE HISTORY!!

Sunday Forecast; Gametime Conditions

Another chilly start for us this morning, not that we don't enjoy it or anything, right? Today looks to be a fairly unactive day in Middle Tennessee's Weather Department. Today's high should reach up to about 83.
There is a much noticeable change coming for the week ahead. The Graphic explains it. A cold front will move across our region Tuesday, that should filter in cold air, which in turn will drop our temperatures. Wednesday is the prime example of the cooler air, as the High will only be 70 Degrees!


Here's your Titans Gameday Forecast!
Titans vs. Vikings
12:00 PM in Nashville, Channel 17.
Temp at Kickoff 82


Current Conditions in Nashville

Sunny

65 degrees


Have a great rest of the week.


**DONT FORGET TO VOTE IN THE NEW BLOG POLL**

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Chilly Start to the Weekend

You can feel it step outside and say, ahhh, that was nice! The cool air is setting in across the mid-state. Even the highs today will reflect the significant drop in temperatures. On last night's post, I said that it would be mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Today is much different:

Today, Partly Cloudy, High Near 82 degrees

The clouds are a result from a Low Pressure sytem over the Carolinas that will swoop some clouds our way. I would show you the Satellite Image but it is still to early to get a good view of the clouds.

Current Conditions at Nashville International Airport:
Temperature, 63 degrees
Dew Point, 56
Relative Humidity, 77.9%

Have a Good Day.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Football Friday Forecast

It has been a great day to end the work week. Throughout the Mid-State, skies were cloudless. We can love the weather but we also need the rain, we are now running a deficit. After such a great start to the 2008 Rain Totals, we have now dipped. Not to fret, there is a minute chance of rain on the horizon, I'll detail that in my Highland Rim 3-Day Forecast. Here's a small rundown of some area Football Games:

Gallatin @ Smyrna (Radio 1010 AM)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m.
Kickoff Temp. 72 (getting down into the 60's!!)

Hillsboro vs. Hillwood
Kickoff: 7:30
Temp. Low 70's , Upper 60's

Beech @ White House
Kickoff: 7:30 pm
Temp. Lower 70's

**It would be a good idea to take a light jacket to any games or outdoor activities tonight, as it will be a little chilly.

The Highland Rim Forecast:

Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Lows in the Upper 50's
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy, Slight Chance of Rain, High near 80, Chance of Rain 20%
Sunday, Partly Sunny, High near 80.

Have a good safe weekend!

Tropical Clouds, Cooler Weather

With the tropical clouds in place from the disturbance over in the Carolinas, our temperatures will be held down today into the low 80's with areas east of Nashville not getting out of the 70's. We will also have a north wind in place that will keep the humidity down as well. Areas over on the Plateau and eastern Highland Rim (Cookeville, McMinnville, Livingston, etc.) you guys could see some light rain from this tropical system, but everyone else should stay dry for the most part. So all in all expect nice, cloudy conditions like we have had over the past week.

Nashville: low 80's
Clarksville: low to mid 80's (not as much cloud cover)
Cookeville: upper 70's; 20% chance
Columbia: low 80's
Manchester: upper 70's to low 80's; 20% chance

*Sorry for my lack of posting, my computer has been giving me fits lately and now it has decided to straighten up. So I shouldn't have any more computer interruptions for a while.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Fall Weather; Drought Update

This fall like weather that has been going on for at least a week now looks to continue for a while. The GFS model is pointing out a possible early frost about a week away, but the models can change in a hurry but it's something to watch.

The drought situation is only worsening and there still looks to be no rain in the forecast for at least this week. A handful of counties in Middle TN have asked for state relief due to the drought cutting their crop production down substantially. Hopefully we can get a couple of days of rain here soon.

Nashville: low to mid 80's
Clarksville: low to mid 80's
Cookeville: low 80's
Columbia: low to mid 80's
Manchester: low to mid 80's

Monday, September 22, 2008

Sept. 22nd Forecast

Today, like many of the past days, will bring to us Middle Tennesseans dry and cooler weather. The high's will be in the 80's, but overall it shouldn't be a bad day. If you guys mowed your lawn this weekend (like I did) then you may not have to mow it again til next spring if the rain stays away like it's doing. We have a stubborn High pressure in place which is keeping all the rains out of our region. Don't expect too many rain chances this week either, the best chance we have all week is 20%.

Nashville: mid 80's
Clarksville: mid 80's
Cookeville: low to mid 80's
Columbia: mid 80's
Manchester: mid 80's

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Drought Situation; Less Wind, Higher Temp., but Still Great Weather

I hate to be the messenger of bad news during these great weather times, but underneath this 80º cool fall type weather, the drought is still continuing for many here in the Mid. State. The rest of the work week doesn't show any rain chances at all. We really have to wait til next week to have a decent shot at anything. Hopefully we can enjoy these next couple f days and then soon we will have good rains that will hopefully knock this drought for a loop. But we will need alot of rain to do that.

Nashville: low to mid 80's
Clarksville: low to mid 80's
Cookeville: low 80's
Columbia: low to mid 80's
Manchester: low 80's