Tuesday, June 30, 2009
With these "cooling" trends, the next thing on your mind is more then likely when is it going to rain. We will have some waves of energy move in Thursday and Friday, but they will be very weak and only isolated areas will see rain. It isn't until the weekend rolls around that we see those chances jump up to 30-40%. Now with that said, not everyone will see rain and storms those two night, and even if you do get some rain...it will not be enough to cancel your fireworks show or cookout.
And we still have a good 4-5 says to see what happens. If this front decides to slow down...most of the rain may be on Sunday and Monday. Whereas if it speeds up it could get here by Friday and early Saturday. But as of right now the best rain and storm chances look to be on Independence Day and Sunday.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
I want to point out though that we could still see some strong storms form along the southern and southeastern sections of Middle TN, so please keep up with what the weather is like in your immediate area.
From the map and looking at the SPC's MCD out. This is where the cold front is positioned, blue line. Places like Clarksville and Dickson are clear of the rain chances for today and soon Nashville will be as this front continues its SE march. Once we see this clearage, sunny skies should surface as should a NW wind to help keep the temperature and humidity down.
As mentioned, the SPC has a MCD out for areas of SE/ parts of E Middle TN. A Severe T'storm Watch is possible, but more then likely they will issue one for further into GA as there is only about a 2-3 hour window of storm opportunity in these regions. We will see what the SPC and local NWS offices does and I will relay that back here.
The hail threat won't be as prominent as we will have warm air aloft that will hamper in the hail formation process, but if we do see a storm produce large updraft and have a large VIL, which all VIL stands for is Vertically Integrated Liquid and that shows you how much moisture is in a storm. The higher the VIL, the more moisture and the greatest chance of seeing hail.
*As I was typing this post, I looked out my window and I am staring into the heart of a thick fog. When I started typing this post there was almost no fog present, now there is a thick blanket of it. And I do not live by a water source that would cause it to build up faster either. So be careful driving this morning if you run into thick areas of fog.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
It goes into effect at 1 pm and will last til 8 pm. Temperatures will get up into the mid 90's and with abundant moisture present...the heat indexes will reach between 105º-107º.
Outdoor activity isn't advised in these regions, but if you do happen to be outdoors, make sure you drink plenty of fluids and wear light color clothes.
The SPC has our area zoned for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The main threats will be for isolated wind and hail potential in the strongest of storms. Too bad we can't get the rain relief today, I know the ones in western Middle TN would love some rain and clouds!
Friday, June 26, 2009
Damaging winds will be the main threat, as we will have warm air aloft that will keep the hail potential at bay. We also have almost no shear or lift in the atmosphere...that is why the tornadic threat is at zero or very close to it.
We are expecting more storms to fire up later this afternoon. The SPC only has us in a "See Text" zone, but that still is a severe category, so we could see one or two isolated severe pulse storms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat today.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
- Total # of High Risk Days Issued (since recordings began in 1984): 77
- Busted: 13
- Small Events (could have been a MDT or Slight risk day and done well): 5
The February 5th Tornado Outbreak tied for the deadliest High Risk day ever since recordings began. So that tells you how rare that event was...
As far as busted outlooks go, in the past 8 years from 2001-now, the SPC has busted 8 times. Over the other past 17 years (from 1984-2000)...only 5 busted.
I bring that statistic up not to make the SPC look bad because they do a great job on issuing these outlooks (77 total with only 13 busts!), but that is a problem that when over the past 8 years, 8 events have not gone as predicted. But at the same time it is a good thing because lose of property and life didn't occur, but for forecasting purposes...it was a bust and needs correcting
A new radar system called 'Phased Array Radar', is a newly developed system that will give you the same information the typical Doppler radar would, but in faster time. The researchers believe that with this new technology, they could increase warning times from the 10 minutes now...to 18-22 minutes. That extra 8-12 minutes is very crucial even if it doesn't seem like much.
This system works with 6 different radar beams going out at once collecting data. While the convectional Doppler radar would just give out the one beam or "sweep" we see on TV. That would normally take 5 minutes to do. With these 6 beams all working together...it cuts that new radar scan time down to 30 seconds. That is a huge difference!
They are also trying to develop a new product called 'Rotation Tracker' that will allow meteorologist to look at the increase or decrease in shear over time. Shear is a crucial, and key ingredient in the making of tornadoes. More info can be found on these projects at www.nssl.noaa.gov/par/
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
We still will be in the 90's across all of Middle TN, but not the 96ºF readings or anything like that. (I'm forecasting 92ºF in Nashville) The only bad thing about today is that we won't have a rain chance to help cool things off even more, but Friday we do see a system from the NW come down and it gives all of Middle TN a chance (SE corner has the lowest chance).
I do want to stress that even with this weather being more bearable, it isn't an all clear to go outside and stay out all day. With temps. in the 90ºF range, it wouldn't take people long to get overheated, so please drink plenty of water if you are out today.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Albany, KY (Clinton): Tree down
Brownsville, KY (Edmonson): Trees down throughout county
Roundhill, KY (Butler): Tree down on Edmonson/Butler county lines
Morgantown, KY (Butler): Trees down
Edmonton, KY (Metcalfe): Trees down in the city limits
Bowling Green, KY (Warren): Trees down in city limts
Franklin, KY (Simpson): Several trees down
Scottsville, KY (Allen): Trees, telephone, and power lines down across county
Auburn, KY (Logan): A couple trees down
Dawson Springs, KY (Hopkins): Street signs down, tree debris in roadway
Celina, TN (Clay): Trees and power lines down
Byrdstown, TN (Pickett): One tree down
Orlinda, TN (Roberston): Trees down
Cross Plains, TN (Roberston): 71 mph wind gust
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Trees and power lines down in Donelson
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Spotter reported 60 mph wind dust and power outages
Gallatin, TN (Sumner): Trees down
Lebanon, TN (Wilson): Trees and power lines down blocking roadway
Belinda City, TN (Wilson): 60 mph wind gust
We do have the chance at more isolated storms to form, but coverage and intensity doesn't look as good today as it did yesterday. One or two could reach severe limits for a short time, but it doesn't look to be a big severe day at all. The heat will be the thing you notice more so.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Until 9:45...a Severe T'storm Warning is in effect for portions of Cheatham, Williamson, and Dickson Counties. Winds approaching 70 mph are possible in that section of the line.
I expect the warning will expire on time and a new one not re-issued as the whole line looks to be weakening as it heads further southward.
The SPC does have the Rim and Plateau areas in a "See Text" zone and that means we do have a severe threat, but it is marginal at best. They say that storms will form over this region and track SSE into this area before losing some of its punch overnight.
For places that won't have the cloud cover and rain around (which will be many areas in Middle TN and SCK) you guys will still be in the pattern we are in. And just taking a look at the extended...looks like this hot, sunny weather will continue til at least next Sunday.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
For the people N/NE of Nashville, there is actually a weak system pushing through to our north and the fringe of it will clip this part of Middle TN and SCK. With the isolated storms that do pop, isolated hail and strong wind gusts could be possible. The SPC has us just in a "See Text" area, but we could see a slight risk be issued for this area if they think the threat will be more scattered then isolated.
Nonetheless, even with these slight storm chances, we still need to take the precautions I mentioned above as not everyone will see rain today. Only a 30% chance for the storm possible areas.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Here in Macon County, this weekend is going to be the 34th Annual Hillbilly Day and the real action starts today at the event. If you are going to be out enjoying the games and booths, or working at a booth (like myself) make sure you have plenty of water and take breaks as much as possible. And if you wear light color clothes and shorts, that helps out a lot more then you would think.
This warm weather is going to stay in the forecast til at least Monday, then later next week we could see those high's dip back into the low 90's for Nashville and maybe even get a few upper 80's on the Plateau or Rim.
Nashville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF -105ºF
Clarksville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Cookeville: mid 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Columbia: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF-105ºF
Manchester: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Today, the only areas under the gun for severe weather is the far eastern areas of Middle TN and SCK. I am only putting the rain chances at 30% for this region, so the odds of any one place seeing rain is at 30% while there is a 70% chance it won't rain in your backyard.
We keep this dry weather through here til at least Sunday, but with this dry weather comes the ridge of high pressure which will dominate over this region and bring with it uncomfortable heat. For the SE counties in Mid. TN, that heat starts today. Heat Indexes will be in the 100ºF-103ºF range today through Sunday and that is very dangerous if you are outside for far too long. If you have a pool...I would suggest using it today through Sunday!
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
A widespread area of wind and hail reports have come in, too many for me to list. If you pick a county in Middle TN/SCK...they probably have some form of wind damage. The strongest area seems to be in the Cross Plains area where they had one of their Fire Department's sustain some roof damage. But most of the damage reports is of trees and power lines down.
Monday, June 15, 2009
I expect the tornado threat to be much lower for us, but the damaging wind threat is still of interest to me.
Here is the just of what the SPC says...
At the start of the day 2 outlook, a healthy MCS is forecasted to be ongoing in the Ozarks region (MO area) and will be moving ESE and as it heads our way it is forecasted to strengthen or at least maintain its strength. SPC says that instability will be in place to allow for an ongoing widespread wind and hail event. They say once they get more model agreement on where the MCS will form...a MDT risk is very plausible.
The area you see in the 30% area, has the best chance at seeing the MDT risk. That is just my forecast and prediction.
Isolated, brief tornadoes are possible too, but hail and damaging winds will be the main threat.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Our severe chance increases for tomorrow and Tuesday, I will have more on that later. Today's rain chances are at 70% for all of Middle TN and SCK.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Friday, June 12, 2009
I was planning on taking today off from blog posting since I stayed up really late to watch that line come through, but then I saw today's severe outlook and thought it would be a disservice to you, my blog readers, if I didn't since we do have a slight risk of severe storms today.
The front is positioned right now over Nashville. So if you live anywhere N/NW of Nashville, you are more then likely in a NW wind and won't see much rain today. If you live S/SE of Nashville, that is where the greatest severe chances lie today.
You may be asking, "If places like Clarksville and Gallatin won't see much rain today, then why are they in the slight risk?" Well, tonight, we expect to see a large complex of storms to march eastward and increase our severe chances across all of Middle TN. The biggest risk with this complex will be damaging winds.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
The line looks like it is weakening as it makes its way south into Music City as there are no current warnings out. Even though no warnings are out, still expect winds upwards of 35 mph, very intense lightning, and heavy rains.
I will have more updates as they become necessary.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL COFFEE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... In effect til 10:45 pm **Warning has expired on time.**
Currently NO warnings in effect across Middle TN- 10:50 pm update
There is a pretty weak line of storms across Memphis at this hour and we are expecting that line to strengthen as it rides right up I-40 towards us. The biggest threat today is going to be damaging winds and large hail.
The SPC is mentioning the possibility at some Gulf moisture ruining our severe chances today. You can see that they have put areas as far south as Montgomery, AL in the slight risk and if they start getting storms to fire down that way...that could very well rob our southern gulf flow and make convection very minimum. So that is something I will keep an eye on today.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO...STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
For the ones in SCK, here is Louisville's HWO update...
.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER TOWARD MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
Nonetheless, when and if the weather gets rough tonight, I will be sleeping very lightly tonight in case any watches or warnings are issued for our area.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
As I posted this morning, we are in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow too and the new updated outlook for Wednesday has this written for our area.
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM ERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION...AS AT LEAST TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION/MCS SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD.
The reason I posted this portion of the text was for this simple fact. The SPC mentioned that here in the lower OH and TN Valley regions (that is us essentially) we would see an MCS move through our region during the Day One period. The Day One period they speak of is today's outlook.
So what I am thinking is that this action we see forming out in MO where the Tornado Watch is located, is what we are going to see form into an MCS for our region tonight and affect us early tomorrow.
Areas from Nashville westward are in a slight risk for severe storms today. The biggest risk is going to be large hail and some damaging wind gusts. But the overall severe storm potential is low as we are only forecasting a 20% chance of storms.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Here is OHX's (NWS office in Nashville) take on this possible severe day...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE, INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1IdTQyG30g
Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qouyXSBLeBs
Friday, June 5, 2009
But we got good news for today, the cold front has now made its slow move across us and now we will have a couple of days to dry out. I plan on getting out and enjoying the day...no matter how wet or soggy it may be! We will have plenty of sunshine to help in this drying process, but for some, it may take a few more days.
I'm not forecasting our next rain chance til early next week (Tuesday) and right now that chance is small at best.
Hope everyone has a great Friday!
Nashville: mid to upper 70's
Clarksville: mid to upper 70's
Cookeville: mid 70's
Columbia: mid to upper 70's
Manchester: mid 70's
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Nashville: mid 70's
Clarksville: low 70's
Cookeville: mid 70's
Columbia: mid 70's
Manchester: mid to upper 70's
*Flash Flood Warnings in Effect for White, Van Buren, and Grundy Counties until 5:45 pm*
Several roads have been flooded throughout Van Buren county this afternoon. If you are out tonight and you live around the SE corner or southern Plateau regions, be extremely careful as roads may be flooded in low lying areas.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Any of these storms could go severe at any time so be aware if you are planning on being out tonight. Also, with any of these storms that do form, heavy rain is likely and you could see some localized flash flooding. Remember that if you can't see the bottom of the road, don't drive through it.
We saw some interesting storms yesterday afternoon. All reports that I have heard about around our area was hail reports, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few trees are down that just wasn't called or e-mailed in. We will see more of that action today and even though southern sections of Middle TN aren't in the slight zone, that doesn't mean you won't see strong storms.
Nashville: upper 80's; 60% chance
Clarksville: upper 80's; 60% chance
Cookeville: upper 80's; 60% chance
Columbia: upper 80's: 50% chance
Manchester: upper 80's to low 90's; 50% chance
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Nickel size hail (.88") has been reported in Hendersonville: Sumner County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Centerville: Hickman County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Hohenwald: Lewis County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Columbia: Maury County
Nickel size hail (.88") has been reported in Nashville: Davidson County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported close to Kingston Springs: Williamson County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Springfield, also small tree limbs down: Roberston County
I fully expect more severe weather reports later on as the afternoon has just begun and more storms are beginning to pop.
Today, we will see much of the same, but I believe we all will have a chance at seeing an isolated severe storm pop. Now the chance of you seeing rain is very small (10% chance). This is going to be an event that a mile or two down the road is going to make a difference. If you do get under one of these stronger storms. You should be aware that you might very well see some hail (anywhere from pea to possibly quarter size) and gusty winds (60-70 mph inthe strongest of storms possible). Lightning will also be present, like always, so just be aware of that.
Nashville: low 90's; 10% chance
Clarksville: low 90's; 10% chance
Cookeville: upper 80's to low 90's; 10% chance
Columbia: low 90's; 10-15% chance
Manchester: low 90's: 10-15% chance
Monday, June 1, 2009
THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION HAS ISSUED A CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY FOR AIR QUALITY IN THE NASHVILLE AREA FOR MONDAY. THE CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED LEVELS OF OZONE. POLLUTANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UNHEALTHY RANGE FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION RECOMMENDS THAT ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS, AND PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS ASTHMA, LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION.
The counties in this alert are: ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-CANNON