Friday, February 27, 2009

Severe T'storm Watch: Middle TN and South Central KY

5:43 update: Line continues to weaken as it moves off to the east. Strong winds around 45-50 mph can still be witnessed in the line, but the severe winds look to be gone for all of Middle TN and South Central KY. Some wind damage was reported in Nashville where over 4800 are without power.
6:32 update: Severe T'storm Watch cancelled, wind damage reports are still few and far, but I do think more could be reported in as the sun begins to rise.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Slight Risk of Storms in Western Middle TN Today; Spreading Eastward Overnight

When these storms begin to fire up and around the Ozarks region, I believe they will form into a squall line type system that will have embedded stronger cells in it causing some damaging winds. This won't be a widespread event, but areas (especially west of I-65) need to watch this system closely today and then in all areas of Middle TN and South Central KY need to watch during the overnight hours. But I believe since it will hit us during the overnight into early morning hours, I don't see it being all that strong. But a few isolated areas could see some wind gust causing some damage.

Tomorrow almost all of the mid state is in a Slight Risk, but I won't mention that til tomorrow morning as I am focusing on today's threat right now...

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Blog Poll Results: Late Season Snowstorm; New Blog Idea...Need Comments

"Do You See A Late Winter Storm Coming Through Our Region?"

5 (38%)

8 (61%)

What is Winter?
0 (0%)

I would like feedback on a new idea I have floating around in my mind. I would like to know if you guys would like me to start asking weather questions in place of the polls, or would you rather me keep the polls as they are?

Warmer Day; Stormy Thursday and Friday

Today, you can expect much warmer temps, but we do have the chance at a few isolated showers across all of the mid state, but mainly in areas in western Middle TN have the best chance at seeing one of these pass through. Tonight we keep the clouds and showery activity around, so tonight our low won't bottom out as bad as it could be for the end of February (44ºF in Nashville tonight).

The SPC has put areas in Central Middle and western Middle TN in a Slight Risk zone for severe thunderstorms. The threat with these storms will again be large hail and damaging wind gust. The lift in the atmosphere won't be as potent with this system, so the tornadic potential should be pretty low with this event.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Chilly Start To Work Week

After a morning start in the upper teens to low 20's in a lot of places, we really won't feel a good warm-up today with high's getting to 36ºF in Nashville. At least today we won't have those unbearable winds adding the brutal wind chills in the teens all day like yesterday. We do see a light rain chance enter the region tomorrow, but it looks small at best and many areas won't see a shower pass by. But with that said, that isn't the only rain chance we have this week. Come Thursday and Friday we will have some heavy rain around with thunder also being possible. Severe weather isn't expected at this time, but we will keep you updated if it does become a threat.

Nashville: mid 30's
Clarksville: mid 30's
Cookeville: low to mid 30's
Columbia: mid to upper 30's
Manchester: mid to upper 30's

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Roller Coaster Weather, Weekend Light Snow Potential

If any of you are like me, I really am tired of this up and down temp swings we are seeing. I'm one who likes it warm for a long period or cold for a long period with no real breaks in between (severe and snow chances included!). And speaking of turning events, it looks like Saturday evening we could see some light snow fall behind a clipper system that will affect our area at the time. But with most clipper systems, this one doesn't look to bring much in accumulation with wet surfaces and marginal freezing temps in place. With the way TN weather is though, we will keep a close watch to this one for any changes that become necessary.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Today; Big Severe South of Here

This morning, the SPC has taken areas north of I-40 out of the Slight risk region of this system and placed a small MDT risk for areas in Southern AL. I want to point out that just because the SPC has us out of the risk area, doesn't mean we won't see severe weather north or east of I-40. I will even go out to say that if we end up seeing more sun then first thought, we could very well be put back into the Slight region.

If you are to get a t'storm to form over you, you can expect a lot of lightning and possibly some hail and damaging wind gust, but the main risk would be hail. And due to the isolated nature of this severe ability for us, I do not see us getting into a Watch at all today. Now for people in Southern AL...that's a whole different story where they have a tornado chance too.

Nashville: low to mid 60's
Clarksville: low to mid 60's
Cookeville: low 60's
Columbia: mid 60's
Manchester: low to mid 60's

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Severe Storms Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

This is the SPC's outlook for today and you can tell that all of Middle TN is included except for the Cumberland Plateau residence. With this threat today, large hail is the main risk with any of these storms with the tornado risk down south into AR and MS where it is even low their. Damaging winds are possible tonight, but the bigger risk for that will be tomorrow when the actual front comes through.

This outlook is for Day 2 and it shows the areas missed in today's outlook into this one. The main risk with this day will be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either. But on this day too, the tornadic risk will be further south into Central and Southern AL. I will continue to monitor this event today and will possibly post an update tonight if time permits.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Blog Poll Results: SKYWARN Poll

Will you attend a SKYWARN class this year?

4 (50%)

0 (0%)

0 (0%)

What is SKYWARN?
4 (50%)

SKYWARN is an association, associated with the NWS offices around the US as well as around the world that report in localized and area wide storm reports to the necessary office in their area. The local NWS offices put up a page specifically for storm spotters (which is what SKYWARN's population is made of) and they go to different areas each year to get more people certified. Here's the link to that page that is updated when they get new classes made.

*Sorry about lack of posting. I was gone to Memphis this weekend and forgot to tell Fred or Matt that and to see if they could do the blogging. But things should be back on schedule tomorrow morning.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Feb. 11th Severe Storm Reports; Fentress County EF-1 Tornado

* Link to area storm reports:

Here's the SPC's storm report page that shows us just how much wind damage was caused by this event and how only 2 tornadoes were confirmed with this system. One tornado just so happened to hit the areas just NE of Monterey, TN, in Fentress County where an EF-1 tornado touched down and caused some damage. Here's a link to the NWS survey of this area today with pictures.

* With the passing of this system, it has made for some beautiful weather to move into our region for today so if you had any yard damage, today was a great day to get it cleaned up. If not today then tomorrow will be another good day too before we see our next system move in Friday night and bring some area wide showers. No severe weather is expected with this round.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Severe Winds Today; Isolated Tornadoes Possible?

With today's threat you can clearly see that the wind is what we will have to worry most about. And even this morning ahead of the system we are seeing wind gust in the 30-35 mph range and those numbers could go up as the squall line gets closer.
Here's the tornado risk and as you can tell it is rather low like I thought it has been since we started tracking this system a couple days ago. But with a 5% risk area we need to keep a close watch on this system cause an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out with this squall line passing through at around the lunchtime hour for Nashville. The current squall line is back into Memphis and has died down quite a bit, but we do expect this line to strengthen as it moves are way later on today.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

OKC Supercells...4 of them!

This image speaks for itself. This is the newest radar view from the Oklahoma City radar view by weatherunderground and you can clearly see 4 different supercells that are tornado warned. The thing you can not see though is that these supercells are all training in the same path. The town of Edmond, OK has already been hit by a tornado from the first of these supercells and have more on the way. This is an unbelieveable radar shot and way for these storms to do. Hope everyone stays safe as it will be a long night for them with many Tornado Watches already in the Midwest region...

SPC's Convective Outlook: Severe Storms Still Possible

This is the new outlook posted by the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK; for our region for this significant threat. I expect the SPC to upgrade the areas you see in the 45% risk area (that includes all of Middle TN and SCK areas) to a Moderate risk for the damaging wind risk. I expect this event to be one that will bring a widespread wind event for many areas in Middle TN and SCK come Weds. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out, but the wind risk is the biggest threat and looks to be the biggest threat with this system. The line of storms look to come through at around the lunchtime hour tomorrow and should be out of the region by 7 p.m. for all areas. I will keep you guys posted on this threat and will have a new updated map come tonight.

Monday, February 9, 2009

The Highland Rim "StormCast" Map

Here's my forecasted SPC Convective Outlook map for the Weds. system. As you can tell from my map, I think most of Middle TN and South Central KY will be in the moderate risk areas (maybe excluding some of the eastern counties on or close to the Plateau) for the risk of strong, damaging winds. From reading the updated looks at OHX, they are saying that we could see wind gust as high as 45 mph in the pre-arrival of the front. With 45 mph winds at the surface ahead of the front, when we get these strong storms to move in, the winds wouldn't have to go up too much to cause damage. Over on you can see the post that Davis Nolan did concerning this wind potential.

Day 3 Slight Risk For Middle TN/South Central KY

Well here we go folks, it looks like around the Weds. time frame we are expecting some strong to severe storms with damaging winds being the primary threat, but isolated tornado development can't be ruled out either. For here the main concern is of a frontal squall line event bringing with it 60+ mph winds. But if we get more time to destabilize and to stay in the warm sector longer...we could see pre-frontal (storms ahead of the squall) storm development and those tend to have the better chance to spawn tornadoes. I will be monitoring this threat all day long today and will have more tonight. This is a threat that you need to take with caution. I'm not expecting anything near the magnitude of Feb. 5th, but this is a threat that needs to be watched closely for everyone in Middle TN/South Central KY.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Mid-week Severe Threat

This is the SPC's Day 4 outlook and this just shows you how much uncertainty they, and most people involved in the meteorological field, have with this system. They have the risk for severe storms all the way north to the Great Lakes region stretching downward to the Gulf Coast region of AL and MS. As of right now the main threat here in Middle TN and South Central KY looks to be a strong squall line type event with the possibility of some embedded rotating segments in that line that could put down a brief tornado or two. Matt, Fred, and I will continue to give you the latest on this risk as more data comes out and we get a better understanding on how this event might unfold.

Saturday, February 7, 2009

WSMV's "Surviving the Storm" Pictures and Write-Up

As you can tell, many people showed up to the event to learn more about severe weather and how to better protect themselves and their loved ones too in time of bad weather.
This image is a close-up of Lisa Spencer after the event. She joked with a few of us that many people get her confused with Jennifer Herron who does the traffic reports for Channel 4. :)
Here's a link to the other images

As many of you may know, I had the chance to go up to my high school Thursday night to watch and take pictures of the program given by WSMV's meteorologist. 3 of the 4 WSMV mets were in attendance (Tim Ross was unable to attend) and I got a chance to meet Lisa Spencer and Dan Thomas after the show, Nancy Van Camp had to leave after the program since she had to do the morning show. Just for some more info., one of my friends took a picture of me and Lisa and told her I was going to be a future TV meteorologist as well, but I don't have that image to put on here! And then I spoke with Dan Thomas and stayed at school til 10:30 to watch him give his 10 o'clock news weather segment, which was pretty cool since only 4 others did the same as me and watched him.

Warmer Today

For those of you early birds stirring this morning, step outside! It is a warmer morning for us here in Middle Tennessee. But warmer weather is here, warm enough that we may break the record temperature for today of 70 degrees....needless to say that's quite impressive. Today looks to remain constant with yesterday, Mostly Sunny and Warm!

Here's your Forecasted Conditions for some cities in Middle Tennessee:
Nashville, Mostly Sunny, 69
Clarksville, Mostly Sunny, 67
Tullahoma, Mostly Sunny, 69
Dickson, Mostly Sunny, 68

Have a good day!

Friday, February 6, 2009

Mild Weekend Awaits

After enduring bitter cold for most of this week, warmer weather looks to settle in to the mid-state this weekend. Well even today, highs in Middle Tennessee reached into the mid 60's! That's 20 degrees warmer than we were this time yesterday! Warmer weather will stay around for a bit. It will get cooler by the end of next week....but we're only talking highs in the 50's. So be happy!

Current Conditions:
Gallatin, Sunny, 61

Nashville, Sunny, 64

Lawrenceburg, Mostly Sunny, 65

3-Day Forecast
Tonight: Mostly Clear, Low in the 40's, SW Wind 5-10 m.p.h.
Saturday:Sunny, High's in the upper 60's
Saturday Night: Partly.....Becoming Mostly Cloudy in the late afternoon, Rain Chances after Midnight Chance of Rain: 20%


Thursday, February 5, 2009

February 5th Lafayette Tornado Post

This image was taken by the OHX storm survey team in the Scottsville Rd./Ackersville Rd. area. Directly to the left of where this image was taken, is where the Zion Missionary Baptist Church stood. It has now been built back thanks to all the donations givin from everyone! If you also notice in the far back right, you will see what looks to be a bus. That bus is of my church where we went to help out one of our fellow members clean-up their house which was heavily damaged with both sides of the house taken away.

Tonight, WSMV is coming up to our high school to do a event called, "Surviving the Storm". All 4 (Tim Ross, Nancy Van Camp, Lisa Spencer, and Dan Thomas) will be up here to show the safety percautions needed in wake of when severe storms strike. I won't be able to go I don't believe. But if I do, I will take pictures of the event and such. Here's a link to their page discussing this event tonight.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

First Severe Threat In Loom?

This is the SPC Convective Outlook map that I will use again very often with our severe storms this year, much like did last year. Right now, the risk looks to stay mainly north of Middle TN and South Central KY...but if the low placement shifts any further south, we are right back in the biggest risk area for severe storms. Again, this threat is still 6+ days out, but it still needs to be monitored and that is what Fred, Matt, and I will continue to do.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Mt. Redoubt Update

This is the seismic chart I have put on this blog before and this is an updated look at the current activity at the volcano. I have been tracking this thing for several days now and not once have I seen red lines appear on this map. If anyone knows why this is detecting red lines now, please leave a comment or e-mail me at I would greatly appreciate it. Here is the most recent report form a geologist their at Mt. Redoubt.

Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. Seismic activity remains elevated and
is well above background levels. Clear web camera images from this morning show
no activity at the volcano.

Light Snow Showers Today; Drier Period Ahead

After we get this mornings period of light snow showers to pass our Northern counties in Middle TN today, we look to see a drier period come into play to round out the week heading into next week. None of this snow should accumulate much, but we can't rule out an isolated area in Northern Middle TN or South Central KY to see more then a dusting from this. Travel problems should not occur due to this morning snow either. One of the bigger stories today is going to be the winds we are going to see. Once this cold front pushes its way through our region, it will usher in colder air and NW winds that could set off more snow showers and flurries later on this afternoon as well, but no accumulation is expected with those either.

Nashville: mid to upper 30's (Dropping to the upper 20's by 4 p.m.)
Clarksville: upper 20's to low 30's
Cookeville: low 30's
Columbia: mid to upper 30's (Dropping to the upper 20's by 4 p.m.)
Manchester: mid 30's (Dropping to the upper 20's by 2 p.m.)

Sunday, February 1, 2009

HR Call Map: GroundHog's Day Snow Event

This isn't the 4"+ snow event we first thought it could turn out to be...but 1.5" of snow isn't impossible with this system, especially for the ones N/NE of Nashville.