Tuesday, July 28, 2009
This rain will move in this morning and by afternoon, we could see a few isolated thunderstorms form but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Wednesday we see this front stall over our region and bring with it more chances at scattered rain and storms. We could see a few isolated severe storms as well, but widespread severe storm activity isn't expected.
Monday, July 27, 2009
After today...we won't be seeing many days of sunshine or dryness. The QPF readings (which they measure how much rain is expected over an extended period) have all areas of Middle TN and SCK getting over 2.5" of rain this week and one model has it over 3" for all areas with isolated higher amounts.
I will point out that Tuesday will be a mostly dry day til the later part of it into the overnight hours. Then Wednesday through Friday will be when we see the heavy rain come in and stay in.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
While severe weather may not be in the forecast, heavy and widespread rain is. We will have off and on rain chances starting today for the northern third and spreading more widespread as we head into the middle of next week.
Friday, July 24, 2009
This watch was only issued for that one lone supercell you see on the radar map above in NE Iowa and only put into effect for 4 hours and 50 minutes. You may be thinking that maybe they issued it because they thought more super cellular storms may form out ahead of that one, but the watch discussion didn't mention that risk at all and, in fact, no new storms formed and that one cell ended up dissipating.
I have only been tracking storms for two years and forecasting for one, but I will admit that this is a first I have ever seen and don't believe a watch has ever been issued before because of one cell.
It is not out of the question that northern areas of Middle TN will be in this risk tomorrow, so keep alert of the latest!
Once these showers move out, the question on everyone's mind is if we will have more showers/t'showers this afternoon. To answer your question...probably not. I am putting the chance at 20% this afternoon for the northern third and SCK, but that means for you even there is an 80% chance it won't do anything.
But not to worry, if you are one who likes rain or storms...late Saturday into Sunday will be the day for you. A front will actually stall over our region or just south of us and bring rain chances well into the middle of next week.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
As mentioned in the title, we do stand a severe threat today, but you have a better chance of seeing President Obama today then you do a severe storm. If a severe storm does decide to go up and up...the main risk will be severe wind gusts and possibly hail the size of pennies, but the hail threat is going to be almost non-existent today.
With this rain and storm coverage around, this will keep our temps. down today. I'm only forecasting 78ºF for Nashville with lower temps. elsewhere. There is an outside chance that areas of far western Middle TN could see the rain and possibly even the clouds give way. If that happens, then they could get into the 80's for a high, but like I said...that is an outside chance and will more then likely not happen.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Rain chances start to increase late today and especially across the overnight hours into your Wednesday where we are forecasting scattered to numerous showers and storms. Severe weather isn't forecasted, but a few cells could get strong and produce pea to dime size hail and winds upwards of 45-50 mph. It will be one of those "SPS" type days. (SPS is the abbreviation for 'Special Weather Statement')
Our high's should get out of the 70's for today, and with this system approaching us from the west...our humidity and DP will be climbing too, so it will be a bit more uncomfortable out their today.
Monday, July 20, 2009
But to some of us, this cold pattern has already set in, it seems. Nashville and many other SE cities broke records yesterday for "min max" temp., and many overnight lows this morning have set records too. In the Smoky Mountains region, Mt. Leconte only topped out at 55ºF yesterday after starting at 35ºF! Newfound Gap started the day yesterday at 36ºF...for July! It is very possible this morning that Mt. Leconte hit the freezing point at some point during the night, which would be unheard of for mid summer.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, and Bowling Green, KY, all broke records yesterday for maximun low high for the day.
Their are also many other areas who may be flirting with record lows tonight and tomorrow night as this very cool Canadian air mass is here and gives us great relief!
I'm only forecasting a high of 77ºF in Nashville today and for places on the Plateau and Rim...low 70's!
We bottomed out at 52.2ºF last night...how cold did you get?
Saturday, July 18, 2009
We will see high's range from the upper 70's across most of Middle TN, to "maybe" low 80;s for Nashville metro. I put maybe in quotes because it is very possible that Nashville will not get out of the 70's!
Low's will be really low for this time of year, we could see some records broken...good thing it is for low's and not high's! I am forecasting a low of 58ºF for Nashville with many areas ranging from 54ºF-58ºF.
*I want to make a quick post about a new blog I have joined. It is called http://www.twinstateweather.com/ and it is ran by Jonathan Burleson who used to work at WTVA out of Tupelo and has since moved to AL to work for a prominent weather service. He is a great forecaster and friend and I hope you guys check out his well done weather blog!
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Areas from Nashville westward stand the best chance at seeing a watch come out, but all of Middle TN is in the slight risk so be alert if you are out.
Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats, and localized flooding is also a concern especially over the areas that have received very heavy rain over the past few other weather events.
Once the sun sets, most of these storms should die down in intensity and coverage due to the lost of the heating of the surface.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Sunday, July 12, 2009
As of right now, the MCS is leaving Middle TN and heading onto the Plateau regions. Just to name a few counties who will see this action here shortly...Cumberland, Van Buren, and Grundy Counties.
Currently we have a Severe T'storm warning out for Marshall and Bedford Counties which is on the very southern edge of this line and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible in this area.
There looks to be some redevelopment behind this line back in western Middle TN. These storms aren't severe right now, but we can't say that they never won't go severe as we still are pretty juicy here. Some places seeing this development are...Clarksville and Camden. We could see this happen all across Middle TN later on tonight, so a good majority of us may hear the roar of thunder tonight and these pest will be the reason why.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Friday, July 10, 2009
They mention that early on Sunday morning, an ongoing MCS looks to be occurring somewhere in the mid/lower Ohio Valley region. If that transpires in the "lower portion", then we could see that roll through here, but with it hitting in the early morning hours...I am unsure how strong it may be, but it helps with it hitting us, if at all, at the the least most favorable time for severe storms. But too, it could possibly form north of us in Central KY and race SE and miss us all together and that is a realistic scenario, and most likely one, as well.
Then during the day on Sunday, we could see a few strong to severe storms "pop" in the heating of the atmosphere mainly during the afternoon hours. We will have to watch the storms back up to our NW as well, because those storms will have the chance at forming into an MCS and charge its way SE into SCK and Northern Middle TN and bring with it a high wind and hail chance.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
The models are in good agreement of bringing us some rain/storm chances late Saturday into all day Sunday. Right now the chances are only at 40% for the OHX region, while in the LOU market they are forecasting a 50% chance Sunday. The 40% chances don't look all that good, but with this event still 2-3 days away...those are pretty big probabilities.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
I am hoping it is tomorrow...I have yard work I have to get done today!
Nashville: low 90's
Clarksville: upper 80's to low 90's
Cookeville: upper 80's to possibly low 90's
Columbia: low 90's
Manchester: upper 80's to low 90's
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
If you have any yard work to do...today would be the day to tackle that hassle. From here on out, the only thing going up with be our temps. and the heat indexes.
Nashville should get to around 92ºF today with places on the Rim/Plateau/and SCK getting to the low 90's as well.
You may think today is hot...just wait til end work week when we could see temps. range in the 94-96ºF range with heat indexes reaching upwards of 105ºF.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
If I watch is issued, I will post it here! So be on the lookout today if you are out and about.
There was one tornado report and that occurred in the Woodlawn, TN area in Montgomery County where law enforcement reported seeing 2 tornadoes on the ground. As of this morning, no damage has been reported, and if there is no damage for the NWS to survey...they will just call this tornado an EF-0.
We could see more storms fire today anywhere in Middle TN, but the best chances for severe weather look to be south of Middle TN all together. The main concern today is going to be flooding as some areas have received over 3" since last night, especially in the SE corner around Parsons, TN.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
The people in western Middle TN will see frequent lightning and heavy rain out of this, but no severe weather is expected...could see some pea to dime size hail and also wind gusts upwards of 40-45 mph.
We could see a MCS form tonight from the action that is associated back in OK moving into AR at this time, and the SPC is thinking that for anyone in this slight risk zone...could see damaging winds. This will be a damaging event, and the locations in the 30% risk area have the best chance.
By the time the next outlook comes (3 pm)...we should be seeing this MCS form and we should know if and when the storms will arrive.
As of right now, it looks like the biggest area of concern for today is located up close to the surface low in Western KY and Eastern MO. In that location, we could also see isolated tornadoes on top of the damaging winds and large hail.
For here, at least SCK and Northern Middle TN, we could see a squall line or MCS form and move towards us late tonight into the early morning hours. Here is a list of locations and how bad it could get.
- Hopkinsville, KY: MCS arrives at around 7 pm, damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail the size of quarters possible.
- Springfield, TN: MCS arrives at around 8 pm, damaging winds up to 65 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
- Bowling Green, KY: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 8:30-9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
- Nashville, TN: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
- Tompkinsville, KY: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
- Gainesboro, TN: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
I didn't mention any southern Middle TN counties for a reason, as you can see by my forecast, I am predicting the MCS to be dying out once it hits Central KY and Northern Middle TN by late tonight into early Sunday morning. For those of you in Southern Middle TN, you should get your fireworks off and going with no problem, while those of us in the Northern counties will have to keep a look to the sky and ears to NOAA weather radio as I do expect we will see a few warnings pop-up here.
Sunday we could see a severe threat, but that would mainly be across the SE counties where the cold front will be stationed and the SPC only gets to the AL/TN border with the latest outlook.
***I also want to say a personal message to the soldiers of our past and present. Thank you's just doesn't seem to be enough when you guys go out everyday and fight for our freedom and Independence, I am praying that you guys will be safe and also I am praying to those families who have loved ones overseas or even the ones who are still in training or on standby over here in the states. Thank you and may God Bless the USA and each one of you!
Friday, July 3, 2009
I say this is a tricky forecast because the timing of these storms is what has us up a creek without a paddle. The main line of storms doesn't look to hit Middle TN til the early morning hours of Sunday (Sunday's SPC outlook below), but we could see some strong to severe storms form out ahead of it late Saturday.
Tomorrow, we should know when these storms will hit and how bad they could be.
Sunday's risk includes areas from Nashville southward and eastward. Damaging winds will the main threat as we could see an MCS type system roll through here, but large hail could form as well if we get enough cold air aloft.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
- There were a few severe reports from these storms. Close to Bethpage in Sumner County, a fireworks tent was blow upwards and caused a minor injury to the worker at that stand.
- Also, over in Overton County, a few trees were down on power lines and caused few power outages in that county.
- After those surprises last night, we could see some more isolated cells pop-up tonight in advance of another shortwave system that will push through here overnight. I put the chance at 20% for areas of Nashville northward and eastward. These storms will have the chance at damaging wind gusts and large hail to nickel size.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
With these "cooling" trends, the next thing on your mind is more then likely when is it going to rain. We will have some waves of energy move in Thursday and Friday, but they will be very weak and only isolated areas will see rain. It isn't until the weekend rolls around that we see those chances jump up to 30-40%. Now with that said, not everyone will see rain and storms those two night, and even if you do get some rain...it will not be enough to cancel your fireworks show or cookout.
And we still have a good 4-5 says to see what happens. If this front decides to slow down...most of the rain may be on Sunday and Monday. Whereas if it speeds up it could get here by Friday and early Saturday. But as of right now the best rain and storm chances look to be on Independence Day and Sunday.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
I want to point out though that we could still see some strong storms form along the southern and southeastern sections of Middle TN, so please keep up with what the weather is like in your immediate area.
From the map and looking at the SPC's MCD out. This is where the cold front is positioned, blue line. Places like Clarksville and Dickson are clear of the rain chances for today and soon Nashville will be as this front continues its SE march. Once we see this clearage, sunny skies should surface as should a NW wind to help keep the temperature and humidity down.
As mentioned, the SPC has a MCD out for areas of SE/ parts of E Middle TN. A Severe T'storm Watch is possible, but more then likely they will issue one for further into GA as there is only about a 2-3 hour window of storm opportunity in these regions. We will see what the SPC and local NWS offices does and I will relay that back here.
The hail threat won't be as prominent as we will have warm air aloft that will hamper in the hail formation process, but if we do see a storm produce large updraft and have a large VIL, which all VIL stands for is Vertically Integrated Liquid and that shows you how much moisture is in a storm. The higher the VIL, the more moisture and the greatest chance of seeing hail.
*As I was typing this post, I looked out my window and I am staring into the heart of a thick fog. When I started typing this post there was almost no fog present, now there is a thick blanket of it. And I do not live by a water source that would cause it to build up faster either. So be careful driving this morning if you run into thick areas of fog.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
It goes into effect at 1 pm and will last til 8 pm. Temperatures will get up into the mid 90's and with abundant moisture present...the heat indexes will reach between 105º-107º.
Outdoor activity isn't advised in these regions, but if you do happen to be outdoors, make sure you drink plenty of fluids and wear light color clothes.
The SPC has our area zoned for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The main threats will be for isolated wind and hail potential in the strongest of storms. Too bad we can't get the rain relief today, I know the ones in western Middle TN would love some rain and clouds!
Friday, June 26, 2009
Damaging winds will be the main threat, as we will have warm air aloft that will keep the hail potential at bay. We also have almost no shear or lift in the atmosphere...that is why the tornadic threat is at zero or very close to it.
We are expecting more storms to fire up later this afternoon. The SPC only has us in a "See Text" zone, but that still is a severe category, so we could see one or two isolated severe pulse storms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat today.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
- Total # of High Risk Days Issued (since recordings began in 1984): 77
- Busted: 13
- Small Events (could have been a MDT or Slight risk day and done well): 5
The February 5th Tornado Outbreak tied for the deadliest High Risk day ever since recordings began. So that tells you how rare that event was...
As far as busted outlooks go, in the past 8 years from 2001-now, the SPC has busted 8 times. Over the other past 17 years (from 1984-2000)...only 5 busted.
I bring that statistic up not to make the SPC look bad because they do a great job on issuing these outlooks (77 total with only 13 busts!), but that is a problem that when over the past 8 years, 8 events have not gone as predicted. But at the same time it is a good thing because lose of property and life didn't occur, but for forecasting purposes...it was a bust and needs correcting
A new radar system called 'Phased Array Radar', is a newly developed system that will give you the same information the typical Doppler radar would, but in faster time. The researchers believe that with this new technology, they could increase warning times from the 10 minutes now...to 18-22 minutes. That extra 8-12 minutes is very crucial even if it doesn't seem like much.
This system works with 6 different radar beams going out at once collecting data. While the convectional Doppler radar would just give out the one beam or "sweep" we see on TV. That would normally take 5 minutes to do. With these 6 beams all working together...it cuts that new radar scan time down to 30 seconds. That is a huge difference!
They are also trying to develop a new product called 'Rotation Tracker' that will allow meteorologist to look at the increase or decrease in shear over time. Shear is a crucial, and key ingredient in the making of tornadoes. More info can be found on these projects at www.nssl.noaa.gov/par/
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
We still will be in the 90's across all of Middle TN, but not the 96ºF readings or anything like that. (I'm forecasting 92ºF in Nashville) The only bad thing about today is that we won't have a rain chance to help cool things off even more, but Friday we do see a system from the NW come down and it gives all of Middle TN a chance (SE corner has the lowest chance).
I do want to stress that even with this weather being more bearable, it isn't an all clear to go outside and stay out all day. With temps. in the 90ºF range, it wouldn't take people long to get overheated, so please drink plenty of water if you are out today.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Albany, KY (Clinton): Tree down
Brownsville, KY (Edmonson): Trees down throughout county
Roundhill, KY (Butler): Tree down on Edmonson/Butler county lines
Morgantown, KY (Butler): Trees down
Edmonton, KY (Metcalfe): Trees down in the city limits
Bowling Green, KY (Warren): Trees down in city limts
Franklin, KY (Simpson): Several trees down
Scottsville, KY (Allen): Trees, telephone, and power lines down across county
Auburn, KY (Logan): A couple trees down
Dawson Springs, KY (Hopkins): Street signs down, tree debris in roadway
Celina, TN (Clay): Trees and power lines down
Byrdstown, TN (Pickett): One tree down
Orlinda, TN (Roberston): Trees down
Cross Plains, TN (Roberston): 71 mph wind gust
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Trees and power lines down in Donelson
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Spotter reported 60 mph wind dust and power outages
Gallatin, TN (Sumner): Trees down
Lebanon, TN (Wilson): Trees and power lines down blocking roadway
Belinda City, TN (Wilson): 60 mph wind gust
We do have the chance at more isolated storms to form, but coverage and intensity doesn't look as good today as it did yesterday. One or two could reach severe limits for a short time, but it doesn't look to be a big severe day at all. The heat will be the thing you notice more so.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Until 9:45...a Severe T'storm Warning is in effect for portions of Cheatham, Williamson, and Dickson Counties. Winds approaching 70 mph are possible in that section of the line.
I expect the warning will expire on time and a new one not re-issued as the whole line looks to be weakening as it heads further southward.
The SPC does have the Rim and Plateau areas in a "See Text" zone and that means we do have a severe threat, but it is marginal at best. They say that storms will form over this region and track SSE into this area before losing some of its punch overnight.
For places that won't have the cloud cover and rain around (which will be many areas in Middle TN and SCK) you guys will still be in the pattern we are in. And just taking a look at the extended...looks like this hot, sunny weather will continue til at least next Sunday.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
For the people N/NE of Nashville, there is actually a weak system pushing through to our north and the fringe of it will clip this part of Middle TN and SCK. With the isolated storms that do pop, isolated hail and strong wind gusts could be possible. The SPC has us just in a "See Text" area, but we could see a slight risk be issued for this area if they think the threat will be more scattered then isolated.
Nonetheless, even with these slight storm chances, we still need to take the precautions I mentioned above as not everyone will see rain today. Only a 30% chance for the storm possible areas.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Here in Macon County, this weekend is going to be the 34th Annual Hillbilly Day and the real action starts today at the event. If you are going to be out enjoying the games and booths, or working at a booth (like myself) make sure you have plenty of water and take breaks as much as possible. And if you wear light color clothes and shorts, that helps out a lot more then you would think.
This warm weather is going to stay in the forecast til at least Monday, then later next week we could see those high's dip back into the low 90's for Nashville and maybe even get a few upper 80's on the Plateau or Rim.
Nashville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF -105ºF
Clarksville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Cookeville: mid 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Columbia: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF-105ºF
Manchester: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Today, the only areas under the gun for severe weather is the far eastern areas of Middle TN and SCK. I am only putting the rain chances at 30% for this region, so the odds of any one place seeing rain is at 30% while there is a 70% chance it won't rain in your backyard.
We keep this dry weather through here til at least Sunday, but with this dry weather comes the ridge of high pressure which will dominate over this region and bring with it uncomfortable heat. For the SE counties in Mid. TN, that heat starts today. Heat Indexes will be in the 100ºF-103ºF range today through Sunday and that is very dangerous if you are outside for far too long. If you have a pool...I would suggest using it today through Sunday!
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
A widespread area of wind and hail reports have come in, too many for me to list. If you pick a county in Middle TN/SCK...they probably have some form of wind damage. The strongest area seems to be in the Cross Plains area where they had one of their Fire Department's sustain some roof damage. But most of the damage reports is of trees and power lines down.
Monday, June 15, 2009
I expect the tornado threat to be much lower for us, but the damaging wind threat is still of interest to me.
Here is the just of what the SPC says...
At the start of the day 2 outlook, a healthy MCS is forecasted to be ongoing in the Ozarks region (MO area) and will be moving ESE and as it heads our way it is forecasted to strengthen or at least maintain its strength. SPC says that instability will be in place to allow for an ongoing widespread wind and hail event. They say once they get more model agreement on where the MCS will form...a MDT risk is very plausible.
The area you see in the 30% area, has the best chance at seeing the MDT risk. That is just my forecast and prediction.
Isolated, brief tornadoes are possible too, but hail and damaging winds will be the main threat.