Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Heavy Rain Moving In; Flooding a Real Problem This Week

We are seeing a huge batch of rain move in from the west this morning and that is the big boy we will have to deal with for today. Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of west TN and northern MS, we could see those translate to heavy rainfall for us too.

This rain will move in this morning and by afternoon, we could see a few isolated thunderstorms form but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Wednesday we see this front stall over our region and bring with it more chances at scattered rain and storms. We could see a few isolated severe storms as well, but widespread severe storm activity isn't expected.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Dry Today...Then The Floodgates Open

After having the boundary sit across the Middle TN area yesterday, that will push further south today and leave many of us dry (can't rule out an isolated shower or t'shower for the counties bordering AL though).

After today...we won't be seeing many days of sunshine or dryness. The QPF readings (which they measure how much rain is expected over an extended period) have all areas of Middle TN and SCK getting over 2.5" of rain this week and one model has it over 3" for all areas with isolated higher amounts.

I will point out that Tuesday will be a mostly dry day til the later part of it into the overnight hours. Then Wednesday through Friday will be when we see the heavy rain come in and stay in.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Today's Severe Risk; Weekend Rain

This morning outlook looks very similar to the one they issued yesterday at lunchtime. The threat is for all of SCK, but residents living north of I-40, especially on the TN/KY line, need to watch this severe day closely. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but large hail is also possible. The bigger tornado risk will be up way north of here where the surface low is at.

While severe weather may not be in the forecast, heavy and widespread rain is. We will have off and on rain chances starting today for the northern third and spreading more widespread as we head into the middle of next week.

Friday, July 24, 2009

A Tornado Watch...For One Cell?

This is the watch that the SPC issued this afternoon at 1:10 pm for portions of the Upper Midwest. Most watches last between 7-10 hours because of the anticipation of severe storms to develop in that watch region and they issue it about 1-2 hours before storms really get going to alert the public of the severe storm potential.

This watch was only issued for that one lone supercell you see on the radar map above in NE Iowa and only put into effect for 4 hours and 50 minutes. You may be thinking that maybe they issued it because they thought more super cellular storms may form out ahead of that one, but the watch discussion didn't mention that risk at all and, in fact, no new storms formed and that one cell ended up dissipating.

I have only been tracking storms for two years and forecasting for one, but I will admit that this is a first I have ever seen and don't believe a watch has ever been issued before because of one cell.

Tomorrow's Severe Risk: SCK

SPC has updated the outlook for tomorrow and all of SCK is included in this area. Damaging winds look to be the main threats in this area as the better instability values will be up into portions of the Great Lakes region around Cleveland, OH, where the surface low will be and the SPC outlook has this same approach in this outlook.

It is not out of the question that northern areas of Middle TN will be in this risk tomorrow, so keep alert of the latest!

Some Morning Showers...Any For Your Afternoon?

We have some showers affecting the northern most part of Middle TN and parts of SCK as well. These are generally light showers, but we can't rule out a strike of lightning. Most people will stay dry today even with these showers across the Northern third of Middle TN.

Once these showers move out, the question on everyone's mind is if we will have more showers/t'showers this afternoon. To answer your question...probably not. I am putting the chance at 20% this afternoon for the northern third and SCK, but that means for you even there is an 80% chance it won't do anything.

But not to worry, if you are one who likes rain or storms...late Saturday into Sunday will be the day for you. A front will actually stall over our region or just south of us and bring rain chances well into the middle of next week.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Current Radar View...Lunchtime Rain!

Widespread Rain This Morning; Very Low Severe Risk

We wake up this morning to a wide swath of rain over the mid-state where many areas are seeing rain totals around .25"-up to an inch is very beneficial and for mid summer...quite pleasant!

As mentioned in the title, we do stand a severe threat today, but you have a better chance of seeing President Obama today then you do a severe storm. If a severe storm does decide to go up and up...the main risk will be severe wind gusts and possibly hail the size of pennies, but the hail threat is going to be almost non-existent today.

With this rain and storm coverage around, this will keep our temps. down today. I'm only forecasting 78ºF for Nashville with lower temps. elsewhere. There is an outside chance that areas of far western Middle TN could see the rain and possibly even the clouds give way. If that happens, then they could get into the 80's for a high, but like I said...that is an outside chance and will more then likely not happen.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Record Breaking Days Over; Dry Weather Over Too

After this morning of waking up to temps. in the mid to upper 50's...we will have no more of these type days for the foreseen future. For mid summer, we won't see another temporary "break" like this for years and years to come I don't imagine.

Rain chances start to increase late today and especially across the overnight hours into your Wednesday where we are forecasting scattered to numerous showers and storms. Severe weather isn't forecasted, but a few cells could get strong and produce pea to dime size hail and winds upwards of 45-50 mph. It will be one of those "SPS" type days. (SPS is the abbreviation for 'Special Weather Statement')

Our high's should get out of the 70's for today, and with this system approaching us from the west...our humidity and DP will be climbing too, so it will be a bit more uncomfortable out their today.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Bastardi's Winter Outlook...Good News For Us!

If you are a winter lover...this is the map for you! Our weather pattern has shifted into an El Nino. The just of what that means is that we look to enter a more wetter and colder pattern for our winter season. I fully believe we will see an above average winter in terms of snowfall, but how much above is yet to be determined!

But to some of us, this cold pattern has already set in, it seems. Nashville and many other SE cities broke records yesterday for "min max" temp., and many overnight lows this morning have set records too. In the Smoky Mountains region, Mt. Leconte only topped out at 55ºF yesterday after starting at 35ºF! Newfound Gap started the day yesterday at 36ºF...for July! It is very possible this morning that Mt. Leconte hit the freezing point at some point during the night, which would be unheard of for mid summer.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Nashville Ties Record...Will We Break Any?

Yesterday, Nashville high only reached 76ºF. That tied the old record set back in 1918, so that tells you how rare July days like this are. Just to show you how widespread this unseasonably cool air mass is...

Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, and Bowling Green, KY, all broke records yesterday for maximun low high for the day.

Their are also many other areas who may be flirting with record lows tonight and tomorrow night as this very cool Canadian air mass is here and gives us great relief!

I'm only forecasting a high of 77ºF in Nashville today and for places on the Plateau and Rim...low 70's!

We bottomed out at 52.2ºF last night...how cold did you get?

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Is This Still July?...Twinstateweather.com!

That is what many of you will be saying when you head outdoors this morning and out to do whatever chores you may need to do. I woke up with a morning low of 57.4ºF and have gotten back up to 59.8ºF...and that isn't the coldest it will get.

We will see high's range from the upper 70's across most of Middle TN, to "maybe" low 80;s for Nashville metro. I put maybe in quotes because it is very possible that Nashville will not get out of the 70's!

Low's will be really low for this time of year, we could see some records broken...good thing it is for low's and not high's! I am forecasting a low of 58ºF for Nashville with many areas ranging from 54ºF-58ºF.

*I want to make a quick post about a new blog I have joined. It is called http://www.twinstateweather.com/ and it is ran by Jonathan Burleson who used to work at WTVA out of Tupelo and has since moved to AL to work for a prominent weather service. He is a great forecaster and friend and I hope you guys check out his well done weather blog!

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Possible

Some storms have fired up along an outflow boundary in and around the Hopkinsville, KY area and there is some concern that this action will only increase in coverage and intensity. If that occurs...a WW will most likely come out.

Areas from Nashville westward stand the best chance at seeing a watch come out, but all of Middle TN is in the slight risk so be alert if you are out.

Severe Update...Slight Risk Now In Effect

We will have to watch for later development this afternoon and later this evening for a possible MCS moving across this region bringing with it the chance at scattered wind damage potential.

Strong Storms Possible Today...Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

As I mentioned, we do have a chance at some strong storms later this evening into the overnight hours, especially over the Northern third of Middle TN. The bigger storm chances will come on Thursday where the SPC has a slight risk across this whole region.

Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats, and localized flooding is also a concern especially over the areas that have received very heavy rain over the past few other weather events.

Once the sun sets, most of these storms should die down in intensity and coverage due to the lost of the heating of the surface.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Wednesday and Thursday's Storm Threat...Isolated Severe Chances Too

We won't be seeing any storms or rain today, but come Wednesday...the SPC has many areas of Middle TN in the 5% storm chance, but a few areas in Northern Middle TN are in the Slight risk zone (15% storm chance). All of SCK is in this outlooked area and high winds look to be the main concern with any of these storms that form. Shear looks to be in the 45 to 50 knots range and that will support some very strong winds if the storms get going.
Then on Thursday we keep the severe risk going for all areas of Middle TN and SCK, but only a 5% chance. It looks like Thursday will be our best rain chance day this week and the SPC thinks a Slight risk area may need to be issued for a few of these areas from the Mid South up into the New England regions, but where is still yet to be determined.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

A Scan of the Radar

I'm going to give you guys a little look into the radar and show you what is happening and who may be next to see this action.

As of right now, the MCS is leaving Middle TN and heading onto the Plateau regions. Just to name a few counties who will see this action here shortly...Cumberland, Van Buren, and Grundy Counties.

Currently we have a Severe T'storm warning out for Marshall and Bedford Counties which is on the very southern edge of this line and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible in this area.

There looks to be some redevelopment behind this line back in western Middle TN. These storms aren't severe right now, but we can't say that they never won't go severe as we still are pretty juicy here. Some places seeing this development are...Clarksville and Camden. We could see this happen all across Middle TN later on tonight, so a good majority of us may hear the roar of thunder tonight and these pest will be the reason why.

Loud and Windy Storms Today...and Tomorrow?

From the map I posted yesterday...you can tell that the SPC did some huge trimming back of the slight risk zone. Instead of one big area, they have divided it up into two smaller zones. Most of Middle TN is included the only areas not are the ones on the Cumberland Plateau as they are seeing some morning storms that will hamper their instability for this afternoon. The strongest of storms will have a good chance at producing damaging winds. An MCS could form and race SE into the outlooked areas later on tonight. So I will be on the lookout for that and let you guys know as soon as I know!
Tomorrow's outlook looks quite the same as today's. 2 smaller zones with one being in the High Plains and the other here in the Mid South, only difference is that only areas west and south of Nashville are included in this outlook. Damaging winds look to be the main threat tomorrow as well, but we can't rule out some large hail up to penny size. But with the mid-levels being pretty warm...that cuts the hail potential down.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Two Days of Severe?

This is the wind profile of the SPC outlooks and this is the main reason we are in a slight risk for today. Any storms that do decide to from will run the risk at producing damaging wind gusts.
We could see a weakening MCS move over us tonight and that will play a huge roll in Sunday's action.
Tomorrow's outlook is what I am more concerned about. The SPC meteorologists are forecasting that we could see one or even two MCS's move over this region during the day and evening on Sunday.
The leftover MCS that looks to hit late Saturday night into Sunday will play a key part in how unstable we are and what our atmosphere will be like for severe weather. If the MCS misses us altogether tonight, which is highly unlikely,...then our atmosphere will be untampered with and we will have very unstable conditions to deal with on Sunday.
If the MCS does hit, like expected, then it will take some time for our atmosphere to recharge itself and that could cut down on the popcorn severe type storms, but the SPC is thinking our atmosphere will destabilize enough to allow severe weather so that is why all of Middle TN/SCK is in the slight category.

Friday, July 10, 2009

No Rain For Today; Sunday's Severe Risk

The SPC has areas across Northern Middle TN and SCK in a Slight risk for severe storms during the Sunday period. From reading the discussion they put with each of these outlooks, it appears we may be looking at a one-two punch.

They mention that early on Sunday morning, an ongoing MCS looks to be occurring somewhere in the mid/lower Ohio Valley region. If that transpires in the "lower portion", then we could see that roll through here, but with it hitting in the early morning hours...I am unsure how strong it may be, but it helps with it hitting us, if at all, at the the least most favorable time for severe storms. But too, it could possibly form north of us in Central KY and race SE and miss us all together and that is a realistic scenario, and most likely one, as well.

Then during the day on Sunday, we could see a few strong to severe storms "pop" in the heating of the atmosphere mainly during the afternoon hours. We will have to watch the storms back up to our NW as well, because those storms will have the chance at forming into an MCS and charge its way SE into SCK and Northern Middle TN and bring with it a high wind and hail chance.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Up and Coming Temps.; Rain By Weekend?

We will see the thermometer rise today into the low 90's today as well, the only difference...the humidity will be up too. The good news is that the temps. will not get as warm this week as first thought. I was forecasting 94-96ºF on Monday for today, but now that Thursday is here, I am only forecasting 92ºF for Nashville.

The models are in good agreement of bringing us some rain/storm chances late Saturday into all day Sunday. Right now the chances are only at 40% for the OHX region, while in the LOU market they are forecasting a 50% chance Sunday. The 40% chances don't look all that good, but with this event still 2-3 days away...those are pretty big probabilities.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Dry, Non-Eventful Weather Continues

The only difference in today's forecast then yesterday's will be that we don't have the morning fog this morning and we are starting a couple of degrees warmer, other then that...everything looks and will feel the same. The humidity and "feel like temp." may feel a little more uncomfortable today, but tomorrow and Friday is when we will all really notice that change.

I am hoping it is tomorrow...I have yard work I have to get done today!

Nashville: low 90's
Clarksville: upper 80's to low 90's
Cookeville: upper 80's to possibly low 90's
Columbia: low 90's
Manchester: upper 80's to low 90's

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Morning Fog, Afternoon Sun

Good morning! This morning, many areas are waking up to some fog. It isn't thick fog up this way on the Rim or Plateau, but down towards the Buffalo River in Perry County, it may be more thick and turn down the visibility a bit. This morning fog will wear off fast once the morning sun rises and sets in for the day, not only will the sun rise, but so will our temps.

If you have any yard work to do...today would be the day to tackle that hassle. From here on out, the only thing going up with be our temps. and the heat indexes.

Nashville should get to around 92ºF today with places on the Rim/Plateau/and SCK getting to the low 90's as well.

You may think today is hot...just wait til end work week when we could see temps. range in the 94-96ºF range with heat indexes reaching upwards of 105ºF.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Possible..Middle TN/SCK

This was issued at 1:21 pm and the SPC is watching this current action in western and central KY and thinks that the severe weather risk is indeed increasing over our region. We continue to see peaks of sun here in Macon County and I would say all across Middle TN, that is helping to unstabilize our atmosphere. CAPE values are in the 2000 J/kg range across southern Middle TN and 1500 elsewhere...that is plenty enough to support severe weather.

If I watch is issued, I will post it here! So be on the lookout today if you are out and about.

Slight Risk: Middle TN and SCK

Storms are beginning to fire up across our region at this hour. Air mass will continue to destabilize across this area throughout the afternoon, and any storms that do form will have the risk at large hail and damaging winds.

Tornado Warnings, Severe T'storm Warnings...Glad Only One Storm Report

After yesterday's rough MCS came through, I was thinking we would see a lot of wind damage and maybe isolated tornadoes too...that, thankfully, didn't happen.

There was one tornado report and that occurred in the Woodlawn, TN area in Montgomery County where law enforcement reported seeing 2 tornadoes on the ground. As of this morning, no damage has been reported, and if there is no damage for the NWS to survey...they will just call this tornado an EF-0.

We could see more storms fire today anywhere in Middle TN, but the best chances for severe weather look to be south of Middle TN all together. The main concern today is going to be flooding as some areas have received over 3" since last night, especially in the SE corner around Parsons, TN.

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Last Glimpse At Radar

This is the latest radar image at 11:25 pm and it shows the leftover MCS over the Plateau and continuing to race eastward into east TN. The storms you see back in west TN fired back up and they look very potent on radar, but currently there are no warnings out for any of these cells and I think it is safe to think it will stay that way.

The people in western Middle TN will see frequent lightning and heavy rain out of this, but no severe weather is expected...could see some pea to dime size hail and also wind gusts upwards of 40-45 mph.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #549

This is a couple minutes old, just out from the Storm Prediction Center.


Updated Severe Outlook: 7/4

This is the wind profile from the outlooks and zoned out is a 15% risk area for now all of Middle TN and SCK. This morning it was just located in the Northern Middle TN areas and SCK. The 30% wind profiles do clip portions of western Middle around the Waverly and Dover areas.

We could see a MCS form tonight from the action that is associated back in OK moving into AR at this time, and the SPC is thinking that for anyone in this slight risk zone...could see damaging winds. This will be a damaging event, and the locations in the 30% risk area have the best chance.

By the time the next outlook comes (3 pm)...we should be seeing this MCS form and we should know if and when the storms will arrive.

Independence Day Forecast...Severe Storms Possible, But Where?

As of right now, it looks like the biggest area of concern for today is located up close to the surface low in Western KY and Eastern MO. In that location, we could also see isolated tornadoes on top of the damaging winds and large hail.

For here, at least SCK and Northern Middle TN, we could see a squall line or MCS form and move towards us late tonight into the early morning hours. Here is a list of locations and how bad it could get.

  • Hopkinsville, KY: MCS arrives at around 7 pm, damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail the size of quarters possible.
  • Springfield, TN: MCS arrives at around 8 pm, damaging winds up to 65 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
  • Bowling Green, KY: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 8:30-9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
  • Nashville, TN: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
  • Tompkinsville, KY: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
  • Gainesboro, TN: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.

I didn't mention any southern Middle TN counties for a reason, as you can see by my forecast, I am predicting the MCS to be dying out once it hits Central KY and Northern Middle TN by late tonight into early Sunday morning. For those of you in Southern Middle TN, you should get your fireworks off and going with no problem, while those of us in the Northern counties will have to keep a look to the sky and ears to NOAA weather radio as I do expect we will see a few warnings pop-up here.

Sunday we could see a severe threat, but that would mainly be across the SE counties where the cold front will be stationed and the SPC only gets to the AL/TN border with the latest outlook.

***I also want to say a personal message to the soldiers of our past and present. Thank you's just doesn't seem to be enough when you guys go out everyday and fight for our freedom and Independence, I am praying that you guys will be safe and also I am praying to those families who have loved ones overseas or even the ones who are still in training or on standby over here in the states. Thank you and may God Bless the USA and each one of you!

Friday, July 3, 2009

Tricky Independence Day and Weekend Forecast

This is the categorical risk zone for Saturday and in this zone are people North/NW of Nashville into SCK. The biggest risk is going to be damaging winds, but large hail will be possible too.

I say this is a tricky forecast because the timing of these storms is what has us up a creek without a paddle. The main line of storms doesn't look to hit Middle TN til the early morning hours of Sunday (Sunday's SPC outlook below), but we could see some strong to severe storms form out ahead of it late Saturday.

Tomorrow, we should know when these storms will hit and how bad they could be.

Sunday's risk includes areas from Nashville southward and eastward. Damaging winds will the main threat as we could see an MCS type system roll through here, but large hail could form as well if we get enough cold air aloft.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Clear, Warm Day Today and Tomorrow; Independence Day/Weekend Washout?

This outlook period is for Saturday and it includes most of Middle TN and SCK with Nashville being in it as well. The SPC is saying that a leftover MCS from Friday night will be trekking across this region, the outflow boundary that could form off of this MCS could spark off new storm development over this outlooked area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
This is the the Day 4-8 categorical risk outlooks and these events are ones that are more hard to pinpoint because they are far away, but the SPC felt that for Sunday's threat...they needed to issue one for us to see what they are thinking.
Right now they are saying that the leftover convection from Saturday could evolve into an MCS and move across this whole region starting in the Ozarks and moving into the TN Valley regions. All of Middle TN is included in this outlook.
I am putting the rain chances at 50% for Saturday and 60% for Sunday. Not everyone will see rain and if you do...I wouldn't cancel my Fourth of July plans as it won't be a constant rain over a long period of time, you may just have to call a short rain delay or something of that nature!

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Isolated Severe Storms Last Night, More Tonight?

This was issued at around 11:35 pm last night and they never did issue a watch, but they just outlooked this region as we were seeing some severe storms move through these regions. There was even a Tornado Warning issued for a cell over in Fentress and Overton Counties, luckily one never did produce and if it did it only hit rural areas.
  • There were a few severe reports from these storms. Close to Bethpage in Sumner County, a fireworks tent was blow upwards and caused a minor injury to the worker at that stand.
  • Also, over in Overton County, a few trees were down on power lines and caused few power outages in that county.
  • After those surprises last night, we could see some more isolated cells pop-up tonight in advance of another shortwave system that will push through here overnight. I put the chance at 20% for areas of Nashville northward and eastward. These storms will have the chance at damaging wind gusts and large hail to nickel size.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Great Weather Continues; Rain Chances Increase For Independence Weekend?

Yesterday was a great day to get outside and enjoy the sun and maybe shoot off some bottle rockets as we are inching ourselves closer to Independence Day. Many areas yesterday hit temps. in the mid to upper 80's which felt great since last week we were in the sauna constantly with no escape. Today, areas will only see their temps. get to the mid 80's and on Wednesday...we are looking at low to mid 80's all around. Good thing I am playing my golf game on Wednesday!

With these "cooling" trends, the next thing on your mind is more then likely when is it going to rain. We will have some waves of energy move in Thursday and Friday, but they will be very weak and only isolated areas will see rain. It isn't until the weekend rolls around that we see those chances jump up to 30-40%. Now with that said, not everyone will see rain and storms those two night, and even if you do get some rain...it will not be enough to cancel your fireworks show or cookout.

And we still have a good 4-5 says to see what happens. If this front decides to slow down...most of the rain may be on Sunday and Monday. Whereas if it speeds up it could get here by Friday and early Saturday. But as of right now the best rain and storm chances look to be on Independence Day and Sunday.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Severe T'storm Watch Issued...Doesn't Contain Any In OHX region

As I anticipated, the SPC has issued a watch for SE TN, but the southern most counties in Middle TN are Franklin, Moore, and Lincoln...all of those are not in the Nashville NWS office. They are in Huntsville's NWS area.

I want to point out though that we could still see some strong storms form along the southern and southeastern sections of Middle TN, so please keep up with what the weather is like in your immediate area.

Weather Graphic: 6/28 Update

This is the weatherunderground radar view as of 12:13 pm and where you see the red circle, that is where the best areas of storm development could take place. There is a storm in Grundy County, SE Mid. TN, where I am watching to see what it can do.

From the map and looking at the SPC's MCD out. This is where the cold front is positioned, blue line. Places like Clarksville and Dickson are clear of the rain chances for today and soon Nashville will be as this front continues its SE march. Once we see this clearage, sunny skies should surface as should a NW wind to help keep the temperature and humidity down.

As mentioned, the SPC has a MCD out for areas of SE/ parts of E Middle TN. A Severe T'storm Watch is possible, but more then likely they will issue one for further into GA as there is only about a 2-3 hour window of storm opportunity in these regions. We will see what the SPC and local NWS offices does and I will relay that back here.

Severe Storms Possible Today; Not Widespread However

We will have a weak cold front move through this region today and early this evening, we will see isolated severe storms pop anywhere here in Middle TN today, but the best chances lie across areas from mainly Nashville eastward and then on the TN/AL line. Any storms that do form will have the potential at 60-65 mph winds and large hail up to nickel size.

The hail threat won't be as prominent as we will have warm air aloft that will hamper in the hail formation process, but if we do see a storm produce large updraft and have a large VIL, which all VIL stands for is Vertically Integrated Liquid and that shows you how much moisture is in a storm. The higher the VIL, the more moisture and the greatest chance of seeing hail.

*As I was typing this post, I looked out my window and I am staring into the heart of a thick fog. When I started typing this post there was almost no fog present, now there is a thick blanket of it. And I do not live by a water source that would cause it to build up faster either. So be careful driving this morning if you run into thick areas of fog.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

MCD: Watch Possible Southern/SE Middle TN

To my surprise, the SPC has issued a MCD for these regions of the SE. Storms are forming right now in SE Middle TN but are not severe. With this dry air in place I am surprised we are seeing these storms fire this early, that means by later on this afternoon...we could see some go severe. Hence the reason we have this possible watch outlook. I will be here giving you the latest on watches and storm reports if any surface.

Heat Advisory: Western Middle TN

The NWS out of Nashville has issued a Heat Advisory for the following counties: Stewart, Montgomery, Benton, Houston, Humphreys, Dickson, Perry, Hickman, Lewis, Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles.

It goes into effect at 1 pm and will last til 8 pm. Temperatures will get up into the mid 90's and with abundant moisture present...the heat indexes will reach between 105º-107º.

Outdoor activity isn't advised in these regions, but if you do happen to be outdoors, make sure you drink plenty of fluids and wear light color clothes.

The SPC has our area zoned for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The main threats will be for isolated wind and hail potential in the strongest of storms. Too bad we can't get the rain relief today, I know the ones in western Middle TN would love some rain and clouds!

Friday, June 26, 2009

Slight Risk Issued For Today...Local Damaging Winds Main Threat

Temperatures will rise into the low 90's here and that, while accompanied with DP's in the low 70º range, will cause some scattered storms to develop over Middle TN and SCK. The best areas to experience this action will be the N/NE sections, but all of Middle TN can see storms pop.

Damaging winds will be the main threat, as we will have warm air aloft that will keep the hail potential at bay. We also have almost no shear or lift in the atmosphere...that is why the tornadic threat is at zero or very close to it.

Morning Convection, More Possible Later Today; Sunday's Severe Risk

This broad area of rain is moving SE at 35 mph and will only affect the NE sections of Middle TN and SCK. Rainfall amounts will be generally around the .25"-.5" rain category, but locally higher amounts are possible in the brief downpours.

We are expecting more storms to fire up later this afternoon. The SPC only has us in a "See Text" zone, but that still is a severe category, so we could see one or two isolated severe pulse storms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat today.
This is Sunday's map and as you can tell, all of Middle TN and most of SCK is included. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks, but this event is still two more days away...so the timing and intensity is still up in the air so to speak.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

SPC Convective Outlook High Risk Day Research; Phased Array Radar

Over the past few days, I have looked at the SPC's convective outlook for them issuing High risk zones. Here are a few facts:

  • Total # of High Risk Days Issued (since recordings began in 1984): 77

  • Busted: 13

  • Small Events (could have been a MDT or Slight risk day and done well): 5

The February 5th Tornado Outbreak tied for the deadliest High Risk day ever since recordings began. So that tells you how rare that event was...

As far as busted outlooks go, in the past 8 years from 2001-now, the SPC has busted 8 times. Over the other past 17 years (from 1984-2000)...only 5 busted.

I bring that statistic up not to make the SPC look bad because they do a great job on issuing these outlooks (77 total with only 13 busts!), but that is a problem that when over the past 8 years, 8 events have not gone as predicted. But at the same time it is a good thing because lose of property and life didn't occur, but for forecasting purposes...it was a bust and needs correcting

A new radar system called 'Phased Array Radar', is a newly developed system that will give you the same information the typical Doppler radar would, but in faster time. The researchers believe that with this new technology, they could increase warning times from the 10 minutes now...to 18-22 minutes. That extra 8-12 minutes is very crucial even if it doesn't seem like much.

This system works with 6 different radar beams going out at once collecting data. While the convectional Doppler radar would just give out the one beam or "sweep" we see on TV. That would normally take 5 minutes to do. With these 6 beams all working together...it cuts that new radar scan time down to 30 seconds. That is a huge difference!

They are also trying to develop a new product called 'Rotation Tracker' that will allow meteorologist to look at the increase or decrease in shear over time. Shear is a crucial, and key ingredient in the making of tornadoes. More info can be found on these projects at www.nssl.noaa.gov/par/

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Still 90º's...But Less Humid! Thankfully!!!

After having the past couple of days stuck in the fringe of this "H" pressure, we see it move a little to the west today and that will give us lower temps., less humidity, and also a nice NE wind to help cool things off as well.

We still will be in the 90's across all of Middle TN, but not the 96ºF readings or anything like that. (I'm forecasting 92ºF in Nashville) The only bad thing about today is that we won't have a rain chance to help cool things off even more, but Friday we do see a system from the NW come down and it gives all of Middle TN a chance (SE corner has the lowest chance).

I do want to stress that even with this weather being more bearable, it isn't an all clear to go outside and stay out all day. With temps. in the 90ºF range, it wouldn't take people long to get overheated, so please drink plenty of water if you are out today.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

LSR's From Yesterday's Event; More Isolated T'storms Today?

There were many counties in Middle TN and SCK that saw some wind damage from yesterday's morning/early afternoon event, as well as yesterday's early night event. Here is the list of counties in both TN and KY that saw some damage.

Albany, KY (Clinton): Tree down
Brownsville, KY (Edmonson): Trees down throughout county
Roundhill, KY (Butler): Tree down on Edmonson/Butler county lines
Morgantown, KY (Butler): Trees down
Edmonton, KY (Metcalfe): Trees down in the city limits
Bowling Green, KY (Warren): Trees down in city limts
Franklin, KY (Simpson): Several trees down
Scottsville, KY (Allen): Trees, telephone, and power lines down across county
Auburn, KY (Logan): A couple trees down
Dawson Springs, KY (Hopkins): Street signs down, tree debris in roadway

Celina, TN (Clay): Trees and power lines down
Byrdstown, TN (Pickett): One tree down
Orlinda, TN (Roberston): Trees down
Cross Plains, TN (Roberston): 71 mph wind gust
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Trees and power lines down in Donelson
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Spotter reported 60 mph wind dust and power outages
Gallatin, TN (Sumner): Trees down
Lebanon, TN (Wilson): Trees and power lines down blocking roadway
Belinda City, TN (Wilson): 60 mph wind gust

We do have the chance at more isolated storms to form, but coverage and intensity doesn't look as good today as it did yesterday. One or two could reach severe limits for a short time, but it doesn't look to be a big severe day at all. The heat will be the thing you notice more so.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Late Night Storms Rumbling Through

A nice cluster of storms that formed from an leftover outflow boundary in KY, has moved southward into and across portions of Middle TN. A wind gust to 71 mph was reported and numerous areas have reported trees and power lines down. I will have more on that tomorrow morning when all the reports will be in.

Until 9:45...a Severe T'storm Warning is in effect for portions of Cheatham, Williamson, and Dickson Counties. Winds approaching 70 mph are possible in that section of the line.

I expect the warning will expire on time and a new one not re-issued as the whole line looks to be weakening as it heads further southward.

Severe T'storm Watch: Eastern Middle TN/SCK

Isolated Strong Storm Threat Continues, So Does The Hot Weather

The past few days, we have seen storms pop-up...but not here. They have formed north of here in Central KY and move SSE into the Plateau regions of Middle TN. And I have no reason to think today will be any different.

The SPC does have the Rim and Plateau areas in a "See Text" zone and that means we do have a severe threat, but it is marginal at best. They say that storms will form over this region and track SSE into this area before losing some of its punch overnight.

For places that won't have the cloud cover and rain around (which will be many areas in Middle TN and SCK) you guys will still be in the pattern we are in. And just taking a look at the extended...looks like this hot, sunny weather will continue til at least next Sunday.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

OHX Graphic

Hot Again; Isolated Strong to Severe Storm Chances N/NE Middle TN and SCK

Once again, we will see these heat indexes reach dangerously high in the 100ºF+ range and if you are out, make sure you drink plenty of water and find some shade and don't be out in the sun constantly.

For the people N/NE of Nashville, there is actually a weak system pushing through to our north and the fringe of it will clip this part of Middle TN and SCK. With the isolated storms that do pop, isolated hail and strong wind gusts could be possible. The SPC has us just in a "See Text" area, but we could see a slight risk be issued for this area if they think the threat will be more scattered then isolated.

Nonetheless, even with these slight storm chances, we still need to take the precautions I mentioned above as not everyone will see rain today. Only a 30% chance for the storm possible areas.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Heat Indexes 100ºF+= Uncomfortable Day and Weekend

Nothing says welcome to summer then a nice stretch of 95ºF days does it! And that is exactly what we are going to get. With these heat indexes reaching over 100ºF, if you are out today, make sure you have plenty of water with you and take the breaks that are needed.

Here in Macon County, this weekend is going to be the 34th Annual Hillbilly Day and the real action starts today at the event. If you are going to be out enjoying the games and booths, or working at a booth (like myself) make sure you have plenty of water and take breaks as much as possible. And if you wear light color clothes and shorts, that helps out a lot more then you would think.

This warm weather is going to stay in the forecast til at least Monday, then later next week we could see those high's dip back into the low 90's for Nashville and maybe even get a few upper 80's on the Plateau or Rim.

Nashville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF -105ºF
Clarksville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Cookeville: mid 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Columbia: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF-105ºF
Manchester: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF

Thursday, June 18, 2009

PDS Severe T'storm Watch: Parts of SCK and Eastern Middle TN

A huge MCS is forming over in Northern KY at this time and is pushing SE into the watch region. The PDS I mentioned is just short for a Particularly Dangerous Situation watch. So this threat is one we really need to watch.

Possible Tornado in SCK Yesterday; Drying Out?

A big area of storms dropped down out of KY yesterday and once they right on the TN/KY line and came into TN...they became tornadic. In Trigg County, KY, a possible tornado touchdown took place in between the towns of Guthrie and Elkton. Funnel clouds were reported in the Cooperstown, TN and Jolten, TN areas too from these same complex of storms.

Today, the only areas under the gun for severe weather is the far eastern areas of Middle TN and SCK. I am only putting the rain chances at 30% for this region, so the odds of any one place seeing rain is at 30% while there is a 70% chance it won't rain in your backyard.

We keep this dry weather through here til at least Sunday, but with this dry weather comes the ridge of high pressure which will dominate over this region and bring with it uncomfortable heat. For the SE counties in Mid. TN, that heat starts today. Heat Indexes will be in the 100ºF-103ºF range today through Sunday and that is very dangerous if you are outside for far too long. If you have a pool...I would suggest using it today through Sunday!

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Severe T'storm Watch: Northern and Central TN; Rest of SCK

Severe T'storm Watch: Parts of Middle TN and SCK

Updated Day 1 Outlook...30% Wind Potential

Storms are popping across TN/KY at this time. The SPC mentions that these storms should intensify and more should form. The NWS in Nashville has upped the rain chances to 50% over northern sections of Middle TN.

Yesterday's Storm Reports; Continued Severe Threat

Here is the map of yesterday's storm reports. You can see that the majority of the reports were in SCK and Northern Middle TN. Also, in Laurel County in SCK...a possible tornado could have touched down, but that has yet to be confirmed or not.
Once again, the SPC has many of us in the slight risk zone. The only areas of except are in the far SW corner in the Waynesboro/Savannah areas. The chance at storms today are only at 30-40%, but if we do get storms to fire along these leftover outflow boundaries, we could see them go severe so that is why we are in this zone even with our storm chances being so low.

The biggest threat for this region is going to be high winds yet again. The 30% wind profile is right on the Highland Rim/Cumberland Plateau line and the increase in elevation in these regions, will only help out the damaging wind potential.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Storms Pushing Through; Storm Reports Coming In

Right now the storms are pushing eastwards across the Cumberland Plateau and still producing a solid line of warnings ranging from a Tornado Warning in the Somerset, KY, area to Severe T'storm Warnings elsewhere. Once these storms pass through your region, you will be in the clear for the rest of the night. We could see some isolated showers/t'storms form later on tonight, but none are expected to get severe at all or get close to it.

A widespread area of wind and hail reports have come in, too many for me to list. If you pick a county in Middle TN/SCK...they probably have some form of wind damage. The strongest area seems to be in the Cross Plains area where they had one of their Fire Department's sustain some roof damage. But most of the damage reports is of trees and power lines down.

Severe T'storm Watch: Rest of Middle TN and SCK

Severe T'storm Watch: Parts of Middle TN and SCK

Big Wind Event Possible; Isolated Tornado Chances Too

As my blog title mentions, the biggest threat with today's complex systems will be widespread damaging winds. I mention widespread because if we get an MCS or even a derecho to form, that will cause a large area of damage over where ever it moves. The SPC has put areas from a Nashville to Manchester line, northward in the 30% wind zone. I think if we see a MDT risk come out in later outlooks...it will be for the 30% wind area which will include Middle TN and all of SCK.
I want to point out as well that we even have a small tornado chance with an cells that may pop-up out ahead of any MCS/MCV's that may form. The 5% tornado risk sits right on the TN/KY border. While it isn't a huge risk, we still need to watch this threat too.
Here is the lowdown on what the SPC is thinking for our region...
The morning MCS's are across areas just to our north and NW. The one to our north will miss us, but the one to our NW we will have to watch. This system will swing down into our region later this morning into the early afternoon hours. We will have plenty of instability to work with and this has the folks at SPC concerned that this area could at least maintain a strong MCS already, and could actually strenghten one.
They say the most likely areas that could see this MDT upgrade, would be the regions of the lower OH/TN Valley's to the Southern Appalachians. Which with that said...would be us here in SCK and across Middle TN.
And I would say with us not getting this morning MCS (missed us to the north like I mentioned above) we still have our instability, where as people north of us in KY and IL will have to get their instability back from this morning convection. So the upgrade to MDT, in my forecasting opinion, looks very possible for this region.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Tornado Watch: Parts of Western Middle TN

Supercells are popping up across MO and AR at this time and are moving into western TN. Many tornado warnings are out and this action will continue through 6 pm. All of this action is spreading eastward where the Severe T'storm Watch is still in play.

I expect the tornado threat to be much lower for us, but the damaging wind threat is still of interest to me.

Looking Ahead To Tomorrow's Risk

I know I shouldn't be looking ahead to tomorrow's risk while we are looking a a severe episode today, but I think this threat needs to monitored closely. I think we could see an event here much like what Memphis saw a couple days ago with widespread damaging wind event...possibly a derecho type event setting up.

Here is the just of what the SPC says...

At the start of the day 2 outlook, a healthy MCS is forecasted to be ongoing in the Ozarks region (MO area) and will be moving ESE and as it heads our way it is forecasted to strengthen or at least maintain its strength. SPC says that instability will be in place to allow for an ongoing widespread wind and hail event. They say once they get more model agreement on where the MCS will form...a MDT risk is very plausible.

The area you see in the 30% area, has the best chance at seeing the MDT risk. That is just my forecast and prediction.

Severe T'storm Watch: Much of Middle TN and Western Parts of SCK

Hail to 2.5" (baseball size) and thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph are all possible with the strongest storms.

Isolated, brief tornadoes are possible too, but hail and damaging winds will be the main threat.