Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Big Wind Event Possible; Isolated Tornado Chances Too

As my blog title mentions, the biggest threat with today's complex systems will be widespread damaging winds. I mention widespread because if we get an MCS or even a derecho to form, that will cause a large area of damage over where ever it moves. The SPC has put areas from a Nashville to Manchester line, northward in the 30% wind zone. I think if we see a MDT risk come out in later outlooks...it will be for the 30% wind area which will include Middle TN and all of SCK.
I want to point out as well that we even have a small tornado chance with an cells that may pop-up out ahead of any MCS/MCV's that may form. The 5% tornado risk sits right on the TN/KY border. While it isn't a huge risk, we still need to watch this threat too.
Here is the lowdown on what the SPC is thinking for our region...
The morning MCS's are across areas just to our north and NW. The one to our north will miss us, but the one to our NW we will have to watch. This system will swing down into our region later this morning into the early afternoon hours. We will have plenty of instability to work with and this has the folks at SPC concerned that this area could at least maintain a strong MCS already, and could actually strenghten one.
They say the most likely areas that could see this MDT upgrade, would be the regions of the lower OH/TN Valley's to the Southern Appalachians. Which with that said...would be us here in SCK and across Middle TN.
And I would say with us not getting this morning MCS (missed us to the north like I mentioned above) we still have our instability, where as people north of us in KY and IL will have to get their instability back from this morning convection. So the upgrade to MDT, in my forecasting opinion, looks very possible for this region.

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