Here's my MCB forecast, if any of you are going to the game like I will be...you may want to wear an extra layer of clothing cause the Wind Chills will be brutally be cold.
As you can tell, the SPC has moved the biggest threat to the NE a good bit. That move to the NE is big for us and here's why. The bigger dynamics of this system will be moving off to the NE all day today. With that shift to the NE, when the suspected squall line moves through our region, the tornadic threat we will have (which is small to begin with) will begin to move off to the NE as it moves eastward. With that said, the biggest risk of severe weather (TOR and WIND combined) is going to be places around the TN River area, while the areas with less chance are on the Plateau areas around Crossville. Either way you look at it, we could see some warnings and possibly a Tornado Watch issued for our area later on this evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. But like the title says, the biggest threat will be damaging winds.
Here's the SPC's Convective Outlook of this weekends potential severe day. Here is a list of things that I think you may see here in Middle TN and South Central KY from this system.
HO HO HO! Well, I'm not Santa Claus, but if I was; this TN weather would be like Caribbean weather to me. Even if we don't have snow on the ground like the penguin family in the picture above has, I hope you are having a very Merry Christmas today anyway. The weather couldn't be any more right for a day like today. Yes the temps. could be a little warmer, but God has blessed us with a wonderful weather day with no rain or weather worries around.
Wind Chill Advisories may be needed tonight for us. We haven't been in a WCA for a few years now, so this cold weather will take us all by surprise.
This is the Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook posted by OHX this morning. Along with the rain, we are experiencing some very windy conditions with gust as high as 35 mph in some places. This rain and wind will be around for much of the day and our temps. will be falling throughout the day as well, but the lowest I see it getting to is the low 50's for everyone.
SHOWERS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOULD CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD...PERHAPS INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.15/3-HR PERIOD.
For the counties you see in purple, an ICE STORM WARNING has been issued for your region. The TN counties in the warning include, Robertson, Montgomery, Stewart, Dickson, Houston, Cheatham, and Humphreyes Counties.
This chart is from the HPC telling us what the chances are of seeing ice accumulation. Areas in the 10% (Slight risk) include: Portland, Ashland City, and Scottsville, KY. Areas in the 40% (Moderate risk) include: Clarksville, Dyersburg, and Hopkinsville, KY. The NWS in Louisville has issued a WSW (Winter Storm Watch) for their DMA due to this impending event. And so has the NWS office from Paducah.
And with that wind whipping around today, the NWS in Louisville has issued a Wind Advisory for places in South Central KY and I would expect Nashville to issue one for us here in Middle TN shortly due to these gusty, hazardous winds. If you are out driving today, please use extreme caution with the wind and rain all about. Even with the rain in our forecast. I'm forecasting a high in Nashville of 61ºF and that is only the second time we have seen temps. in the 60's here for a good while. (The past 60º day was on Thanksgiving.) It looks like that most of the really stormier weather will stay to our south and south west, but I can't rule out an isolated storm or two when the line moves through our region. Fred, Matt, and I will monitor the situation closely here at the Highland Rim Station. Have a good Tuesday everyone!
Due to the icy start, some of the Northern and Eastern counties have decided to close or delay the start of school. We had some surprise snow last evening that left another good coating of snow on the deck and road this time. With the current temps. in Middle TN ranging from the low 30's to the low 20's, the roads will take some time to clear, but the skies are clearing out so when that sun rises in the east...the temperatures will bounce back pretty well and we should see area temps. be in the 40's with no snow or sleet or rain around and a south wind pushing the temps. up. So for tomorrow all area schools should go as planned and on schedule.
As you can tell, you more then likely didn't get any accumulation from last night's event, but tonight the places on the Rim and Plateau have another shot at accumulation before this system pulls out late Monday evening for them. And with the snow and mix coming tonight as well...our temps. won't be a problem this time. I'm forecasting the Rim and Plateau lows to range anywhere from 24ºF-28ºF so the sticking will be more prone in these areas. For many others in Middle TN your low should reach the freezing mark tonight, but most of the moisture will be on the Plateau and Rim so your accumualtion amounts should be limited.
The only changes I have made from yesterday's SnowTrac forecast, is that I moved all the dark blue shaded areas out of TN and put them into KY. And I've also moved the gray (no accumulation area) up some places. WKRN meteorologist Davis Nolan mentioned that some of the county school systems north and east of Nashville could get out tomorrow, and WTVF meteorologist Kelly Cox showed a map this morning where places north and east of Nashville would get around 1" of snow to accumulate. So with those predictions, I'm finding that we could wake up too a good snow cover tomorrow here at the station.
And just so everyone knows, these snowfall totals are being very generous. The most out of the system we may end up getting is 1" and that would be on the Plateau where I think 1.5" could fall.
Here's the Highland Rim SnowTrac map (from the weatherunderground site) for the November 30th possible winter event. The current thinking is that most places along the KY state line and on the Rim and Plateau, will see some accumulation. While places along the AL state line might see a dusting on the grassy surfaces. The only thing keeping this from being a huge event is the potential of the ground temps. being too high to support much in the way of snow. While my forecast map says Nov. 30th, this event looks to continue into Monday with an all day snow/mix occurring with temps. barely getting to 36ºF anywhere in Middle TN and South Central KY.
I thought this picture suited our turkey brethren quite well for Thanksgiving! And since today is Thanksgiving please take the time out of your hectic schedule to ponder on what you are have, cause we have more then we could ever imagine and I can confess that I don't thank God enough for the things he has given me.
I want to give a big THANK YOU to Leah Robertson for taking these pictures of the Albuquerque Balloon Festival. Leah has sent me storm picture before as well from New Mexico earlier this year. This first image really caught my eye and just shows you how many people where out and about in this fiesta. And Leah even told me that this picture doesn't do justice to just how many balloons where actually in flight that day. 
Now this picture is my favorite of them all. How many times have you guys seen a Darth Vader Hot Air balloon? From looking at these pictures, I hope one day I get a chance to go out into Albuquerque and see this event unfold. Thanks again Leah for sharing these amazing photos.
Don't Forget to remember ALL of the veteran's who fought for this country in previous wars. These men and women have more courage then may of us could ever imagine, so please take the time sometime during your day to thank them for their service.
From looking at this tornado potential...it looks like areas in the SE KS and NE OK will be the most likely places to see the tornadoes and I agree with that reasoning and have agreed with it from the day we knew about this system. I expect to see 5-8 tornado reports from the Plains states today, but hail is going to be the primary threat.
Man, is is good to be posting these again. And as you can tell, the SPC already has areas from the TN River, westward in a Slight risk for Thursday and Thursday night. From reading the outlook, it looks like the many severe risk will damaging winds, but hail is also going to be a threat with any storms that do form out ahead of the front. It doesn't appear that tornadoes will be a big issue do to the lack of lift in the atmosphere come Thursday, but that can't be said for places in the Plains that will have to deal with this system Weds and Weds night.
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Yes! Winter now looks to be here in Middle TN, and so goes the growing season with the freeze we should see tonight. We didn't see a freeze here last night due to the clouds not breaking up and because the clouds didn't break up...flurries have been flying on the Rim and Plateau all night. As of right now, the NWS office in Nashville says that light snow is falling in Cookeville and Crossville this morning. None of it will stick (temperatures are at 36ºF in Cookeville and Crossville), but it is nice to see that we can have snow in October. Most of this activity will subside at around the 7-8 o'clock time frame.
The map above shows that all the areas of Middle TN and Highland Rim are in a Freeze Watch for Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This will be the first freeze of the year for many, but if you live in the Nashville suburbs you may not see a freeze this go around due to the UHIE (Urban Heat Island Effect) which I will possibly mention a lot this year and will come into play with the winter snows here.
Here's the HPC's rainfall prediction map for over the next 5 days. Most areas in Middle TN will see totals right around the 1" mark it seems. Isolated spots could see more (more then likely the western parts of Middle TN) and some spots might see less then an inch (more then likely the eastern parts of Middle TN and Cumberland Plateau). But once you get the rain to pass your area...the weekend looks nice and dry. Hope everyone has a great Friday!
This is the potent system to the west which will be bringing its winds and rains to us tomorrow. The winds will pick up today, especially in the afternoon hours, so remember that when driving on your way home from work or school. The rains look to arrive here in Middle TN by the morning, rush hour commute. This rain is much needed and it looks like the severe potential is will be at 0, so no risk for severe weather in this rain which is good news. The rain does look to clear the area before Friday night, so the football games should be fine , even though you could see a passing shower or two Friday evening, it will be nothing like what Friday morning will be. The high's will only get into the mid 50's and with rain in the area...it will be a chilly Friday.For most of us Middle Tennessean’s and South Central Kentuckians, December may be a “bluff” month of winter wx. I say that because it looks as if the cold air will be in place, but the lack of moisture may cause us to not get much snow at all. If we do get an increased amount of moisture, then December could be a fun month and that is why I call it the “bluff” month cause January and February will be much different.
As I mentioned in the radar photo above, the rain has yet to enter the Nashville metro area, but it has begun raining in the Dover and Paris areas of TN. All of this wet weather is associated with a cold front positioned around Paducah like I also mentioned. It should reach the Nashville area by the lunchtime rush, so be careful if your out and about driving today. Most of the rain should be east of Nashville by the 6-7 o'clock period. There could still be some isolated spots of showers/t'showers in the Nashville area even after the 6-7 o'clock time frame so keep that in mind also.
Here's the weatherunderground storm rainfall total map from the system that brought many areas .50" to 1" of rain. People along the I-65 corridor had amounts upward of 3-5". We had right around 3" here at the Highland Rim Station. This will help out the drought situation, but it will in no way clear it out.
The counties in light blue on this map by weatherunderground, have the chance at seeing some patchy, light frost this morning when the low got down into the low 40's to upper 30's and the clear skies we had overnight helped this to be possible. We have a current temperature of 40ºF here while areas in Nashville, with the heat island effect, have a temperature of around 45ºF. This frost should wear off by sunrise and we shall see a day in the 70's occur for many in the Mid State, areas on the upper part of the Plateau may not get out of the 60's again, but that will be a very few.
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