Friday, June 27, 2008
Big Storm Chances Today; Tomorrow's Severe Update
I posted the updated Convective Outlook, as well as the updated Probability chart and there have been some changes to it. The outlook still has all of TN in it, but in the Probability chart, they've trimmed the 30% area back to not include areas in Eastern TN (Knoxville and Chattanooga), but it still includes all of the Nashville area, Cookeville, and areas westward of there. Matt and I will be looking at any new developments in the outlook and chart, and we will bring you the newest updates as soon as we hear of any. Here's the new written outlook posted by the SPC for us.
...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 2000 J/KG. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. STRONGER BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
Today, things look on the upside for a bigger, more widespread storm chance later this afternoon. The chances I'm putting us at for storms is roughly 40% as we are getting alot more moisture pumped in here just in time for the severe weather tomorrow. Here's the forecasted high's for today, as well as the much improved storm chances.
Nashville: upper 80's; 40% chance
Clarksville: upper 80's; 40% chance
Cookeville: low to mid 80's; 40% chance
Columbia: upper 80's; 40% chance
Manchester: mid to upper 80's; 40% chance