Bellevue Lightning; Today's Lightning Storm Risk

This image was taken last night at around 9:55 in the Bellevue area by Clarence Bennett who caught this AMAZING lightning strike as storms where moving through the region! We could see more of this activity later on today as well. In the form of MANY Special Weather Statments, Severe T'storm Warnings and maybe wind damage.
Here's the SPC's take on the severe risk areas today and we are right, again, in the "See Text" region. My thinking is that the areas who will most likely see the stormy action, will be the areas south of I-40. We won't see much in the way of severe weather up here, due to the fact of this morning rain stabilizing the atmosphere and it won't have time to recover for this afternoon's event. Here's today's forecasted high's, as well as the rain chances for this afternoon.

Nashville: mid to upper 80's!; 60% chance this afternoon
Clarksville: mid 80's; 50% chance
Cookeville: low to mid 80's; 60% chance
Columbia: upper 80's; 60% chance
Manchester: upper 80's; 70% chance

Albuquerque, NM Storm Photos

I have these photos sent to me from Leah Robertson out of Albuquerque, NM. This picture of a mini-rainshaft, was taken over SE Albuquerque. I'd love to go out there and taken photos and videos...you could literally see for miles and miles!
This picture is also from Leah Robertson and this was taken on July 25th from Albuquerque, but the storm was around Belen, NM. You can clearly see a weak anvil sticking out the side of the cell. Thanks Leah for these wonderful photos!

Tornado Vortex Signature (Weatherunderground Radar)

I came by this while looking at the weatherundergroud radar, and as you can tell, the radar was picking up a Tornado Vortex signature at around 10:22 for Western Wilson County (Mt. Juliet area). I don't know why it picked it up, but it sure did. I thought I might need to share that with you guys.

MSD (TN and SE KY)

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

Because of the isolated nature of the severe potential...a watch is unlikely. But the severe threat could last a few more hours...til the sun goes down.

Storm Updates

Here's the weatherunderground radar image as of 3:05. There's a Severe T'storm Warning in effect for E Central Davidson County and NE Wilson County for damaging wind gust reaching past 60 mph. The Emergency Management has reported down trees and power lines from this same storm. More storms could fire up later on during the afternoon til the sun goes down and takes all the fueling power away with it. Tomorrow looks to be about the same as today is too.

Glen Falls, NY Storm Pictures; Low Severe Risk Today

These pictures where both taken by Monica Dobbs in Glen Falls, NY, on July 26th. She writes, " There was a series of storms that moved through, and produced some good lightning in my region. They also produced, in nearby regions, hail and high winds. We were lucky not to get any of that." Now this photo is pretty amazing. As you can see, there's a cloud or fog mist right in between her house and the neighbors house. But the cool thing is, is that it looks to be forming. You can't really tell by a picture, but she believes from capturing it on camera and watching it, it was forming right above her. Cool! Thanks Monica for sharing these photos with us here in TN. I have more photos that I will continue to share with you later on this week.

I chose her photos, due to our risk of seeing some lightning later on this afternoon. While the risk is low, here's the SPC's take on what may or may not happen.

...TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVING EWD THROUGH BROAD/WEAKLY-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY. WHILE STRONGEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...MODERATE FLOW FIELD WILL EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THUS -- A FEW STRONGER CELLS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL.

My forecast calls for not alot of severe weather, but for a mostly good late July/Early August rain gift. We don't get these chances too often, so any wet weather we can get...I won't complain. Here's today's forecasted high's, along with the afternoon and overnight rain chances.

Nashville: low to mid 90's; 30% chance...^ to 60% tonight
Clarksville: low 90's; 30% chance...^ to 60% tonight
Cookeville: upper 80's to low 90's; 40% chance...^ 60% tonight
Columbia: low to mid 90's; 30% chance...^ 60% tonight
Manchester: low 90's; 40% chance...^ 70% tonight

Muggy Night; Rain Chances

It will be another muggy night here in the Mid-State. Temperatures will stay in the low-to-mid 80's. Rain Chances for tonight are VERY low. The areas that could be seeing rain are in the southwestern counties, where rain is already present.

Tomorrow, we are running a VERY LOW chance of seing some strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threats with these storms will be damaging winds.

If the severe weather doesn't happen, the rain will, maybe. Rain chances look best on Thursday as a weak frontal boundary tries to push in to the mid-state. Chances for rain on Thursday look to be about 50%.

Update on Site: The RADAR, is going VERY slow. I'm trying to load one, but the computer just won't do it, yet. I'm working on it, so bear with me. The Graphics are coming along, i'll have them by Friday.

Have a Great Night, and Safe Day.

Pop-up Day #2

I took the weatherunderground image of the storms that have pop-uped in south and eastern TN, and added the blue outlines to the counties that the NWS in Nashville has put out a Short Term forecast for. Here's the List of the 17 counties and what the forecast says.

TNZ009>011-029>034-063>066-077>080-291830-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARDT...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...SPENCER1157 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008.NOW...WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL OF PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS OF ROADWAYS.

Foggy Start For Some; Balmy Day Awaits

After yesterday's pop-up feast. Today looks about the same, but with less coverage and intensity in the pop-up storms. The western half of Middle TN stands the best chance at witnessing the t'storm activity later on this afternoon, but I can't discount the chance at a pop-up shower/t'shower for the Highland Rim, Cumberland Plateau, or Southern TN areas. With the less morning cloud coverage, it opens the window for more of a mid 90 degree day for Middle Tennesseans. With the temperatures getting in the mid 90's, the Heat Indexes will be getting well up into the upper 90's around 100º's. Here's today's forecasted highs in addition to the storm chances.

Nashville: mid 90's; 20% chance
Clarksville: low to mid 90's; 30% chance
Cookeville: low 90's; 10% chance
Columbia: mid 90's; 30% chance
Manchester: low to mid 90's; 20% chance

Mesoscale Discussion (Eastern KY and TN included)

A watch is unlikely, but the chance for some more afternoon pop-up storms is possible as the system continues to move eastward out of the area.

Storm Prediction Center's Outlook

As you can see, the SPC has put a "See Text" marker right over on top of us. And here is what there outlook says for us here in Mid. TN and South Central KY.

...NE AR/KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON... A REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OVER NRN KY. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILS WSWWD ACROSS WRN KY/NW TN INTO NE AR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS REMOVED...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL.

Midday Update: July 28th

Here's the wording from the NWS office in Nashville.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.

Weather Words For This Work Week: Hot and Humid!

The name of the game this work week is the heat and humidity we will have to endure, with the very little rain chances not helping much at all. Today, the temperatures look to reach the 95º mark in Nashville, but the heat index will put the feel like temp. close, if not over the century point. Our next big rain chance (30-40% in late July and into all of August is BIG for us) comes Weds. night into Thursday morning and those chances are at 30%, so everyone won't see rain those two days. And tomorrow only looks hotter and drier with the temps. getting well past the mid 90's (I'm forecasting 97ºF for Nashville with Heat Index close to 105ºF) and Heat Index's getting over 100 in most spots. We will come very close at a Excessive Heat Watch day I believe. Here's today forecasted high's and heat index numbers you can expect.

Nashville: mid 90's; Heat Index close to 100ºF
Clarksville: low to mid 90's; Heat Index close to 99ºF
Cookeville: upper 80's to low 90's; Heat Index close to 96ºF
Columbia: mid 90's; Heat Index close to 100ºF
Manchester: low to mid 90's; Heat Index close to 98-99ºF

Mild Evening Tonight; Cool Pic

It has been another typicl summer day here in Middle Tennessee, some areas reached up into the mid-90's for the second straight day. Like I said this morning we had a few pop-up thunderstorms in Wayne and Lawrence County. And that was it for the heat relief! Expect the next several days to be hot, the heat wave should end on Wednesday.

Tomorrow it's much of the same, heat with a slight chance of seeing a shower or storm in the extreme southern counties.

This image is from KDMX, the NWS field office in Des Moines. I was watching these storms and I looped the image after I saved it and vwal-la. This image is from the Radar product Base Velocity it is good for determining strong winds at the lowest level of the radars sweep. This is a large swath of positive return from an intense, Tornado Warned cell. The yellow cicle is an area of storm based rotation 2-6 miles in diameter called a Mesocyclone. Look at the Bright Red. It is Radar Indicated winds at 86 MILES PER HOUR, OUCH! There was a severe thunderstorm warning out I just had them turned off.

HOT Day; Showers Possible

It is going to be a HOT day. The temperatures are high, and dewpoints (tD) is very high, combined that equals, EEEEK! The heat index today should be in the 100's.

There is a 20% chance of rain for the southwestern counties in Tennessee. As the day goes on the atmosphere will begin to stabilize and discourage any rain development.

Here's today's Forecast:

Partly Cloudy, To Cloudy, High near 95 degrees, Light Wind, Chance of Rain is 20%

Have a good day and stay cool.

Saturday Evening Post; Matt's Post

Sorry about not making a morning post, was sort of busy. Anyway, for your Saturday night plans, everything looks like it may go well weather wise. I can't completely rule out an after shower this evening, but that chance looks VERY slim and the most likely places to even see this possibly occur, would be in Southern Mid. TN. Overnight lows look to dip down to only into the low 70's for the Nashville region, but a lot of people may reach the 68-69ºF readings. As we look towards next week, a heat wave may be in store for us Middle Tennesseans, but I'll have more on that in tomorrow's post.

Nashville: low 70's
Clarksville: upper 60's to low 70's
Cookeville: upper 60's
Columbia: upper 60's to low 70's
Manchester: upper 60's to low 70's; >5% chance

As you all know, Matt is doing some works for the blog, and what I've proposed to Matt is, is that I take over his blog duties for now, til he gets the work done. I haven't gotten a response from him on this matter yet, but I think I should have one tomorrow morning.

Blog Poll Results

"Do You Believe That Another Wilma or Katrina Could Form This Year in the Atlantic or Gulf?"

Yes: 5 votes

No: 5 votes

Thanks to everyone for voting. Remember to vote in the new blog poll question that replaces this one.

Also, if you have any storm photos you'd like for us to show on the blog. You can find my e-mail address just under the blog poll question! We'd LOVE to have your storm or nature photos.

Matt Deserves a Standing Ovation!

As you guys know, Matt has been putting up the new "Highland Rim Mobile Alert" for us and he is also making a new radar for us. And that's not all. He is also making weather graphics for us to use fro our forecasting. I know almost everyone is questioning, and should be questioning, "Why isn't Charles helping him out?" Well...my computer has been acting up for a while now, and I'm not able to make the radars, graphics, etc., but Matt is. I e-mailed Matt to send me some suggestions on what I could do for the blog. If anyone else has any suggestions, it would be greatly appreciated. I am making a Winter Wx forecast outlook for us later on in August for the upcoming TN winter year.

Wet Morning Commute; Wetter Weekend?

We have finally hit another end to a work week and what a wet start it is for some people. Regardless if you get rain, the clouds will be in the story for today. With the abundant cloud cover, the high's will struggle to get out of the 80's here in Mid. TN, but over in West TN...they may reach the mid 90's with high humidity with this less cloud cover. The big question is, can we get the rain out of here, before your weekend plans roll around? Well yes for many, no for few. There's a chance (30%) for pop-up showers/storms on Saturday, while on Sunday there is a slight chance (20%) for the pop-up showers/storms. But we will have clouds both of those days, but due to the dry air...rain chances will be slim for everyone. Not everyone will see rain any of the next 3 days and some might get rain all 3 (consider yourself lucky if that happens!). Here's today's forecasted high's and rain chances.

Nashville: upper 80's; 30% chance this afternoon
Clarksville: upper 80's; 20% chance this afternoon
Cookeville: mid 80's; 40% chance this afternoon
Columbia: upper 80's to low 90's; 30% chance this afternoon
Manchester: upper 80's; 30% chance this afternoon

Mild Day, Rain Chances for the Weekend

It has been a very mild day today. Some areas got up to 90, but it wasn't the AHHHH! 90 we've come to know! I'm sorry i've missed my posts, i've been taking care of stuff for the AP7 Team (New RADAR-Had to load shapefiles) But i'm here. I do have a special report in the works, and i'm trying to get the blog a new radar.

Highland Rim Blog-MOBILE!

Get the latest updates from the Highland Rim Team, on your cell phone!!! Just type in highlandrimtnwx.blogspot.com into your mobile web browser and read the latest forecasts and updates. Check it out today!

GREAT Weather Day Ahead

Today here in Middle TN and the Highland Rim...you can expect quit and clear conditions for your Thursday. The high's today will be in the normal mid to upper 80's with some possible isolated 90's in the downtown areas of Middle TN. The rain chances really don't enter the picture til late Friday and into early Saturday, but like it has been the past couple of rain chances, the chance is slim. Here's today's forecasted high's for these Mid. TN and Highland Rim regions.

Nashville: upper 80's (isolated low 90's)
Clarksville: mid to upper 80's
Cookeville: mid to upper 80's
Columbia: upper 80's (isolated low 90's)
Manchester: upper 80's (isolated low 90's)

Hurricane Dolly's Landfall; Tennessee Afternoon Storms

While Matt is working on giving us a radar map up. Thanks Matt! It looks like Hurricane Dolly has made landfall JUST north of Jim Cantore and Julie Martin in Port Isabel, TX. The storm is at Cat. 2 strength with winds up too 100 mph like I forecasted they would be at this moment. There have been numerous reports of damage in the South Padre Islands regions and as well in Brownsville, TX.
This image is from the weatherunderground radar as well, and it shows the storms that have begun to fire in southern and western Mid. TN. This should be the current trend of what to expect today, but I can't rule out an isolated shower/t'shower for places north of I-40.

Working in Progress

I'll be working on the blog for a while to get a RADAR program on here.

Hurricane Dolly Coming On Shore!

Hurricane Dolly, as of 11:11, is still off shore, but BARELY. Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel was reporting in Port Isabel, but due to the high winds and debris danger...he's moved indoors. This is the rainfall totals that have yet to move on shore from Hurricane Dolly. Those number are in the 12"+ range and Port Isabel where Cantore is...is in for a long ride. There's also a Tornado Watch out for places in southern TX til 7 o'clock tonight. Corpus Christi was in a Tornado Warning not too long ago, but a tornado touchdown was not reported. I'll have more updates as she comes a shore.

Storm Photo; Hurricane Dolly

This is a storm image that our own Matt Brawner caught during yesterday's storms. If you have any weather pictures you'd like to send us, e-mail me them at charlesloring_2010@hotmail.com and I'll put them up here on the blog during my morning or mid-day post. I hope my inbox gets full! The storms caused alot of damage south and east of my location. There was a report out of Cookeville of one injury when a tree fell on a car at an intersection! But as for me and my video camera...we didn't see alot of anything. And my attitude showed it! But I'll be ok if I get some storm photos.
This image is the latest satellite image of Dolly from space. Here's the current numbers on Dolly.

Winds: 85 mph (higher gust): Cat 1 strength
Location: 45 miles off coast of Brownsville
Movement: NW at 8 mph
Landfall location/Time: Anywhere in between Brownsville and the South Padre Island/ 5-6 hours away

Here's my forecast prediction of Dolly:

Maximum Strength Winds: 100 mph (Low Cat. 2)
Landfall Location: Brownsville or slightly north of Brownsville
Landfall Time: Mid-Morning to early afternoon (12-3 o'clock)
Spawned Tornadoes from Dolly: 10-12 tornadoes across the coast of TX.

Hurricane Dolly Has Arrived!

Finally, Finally Dolly has made it to where we have thought she would, hurricane strength. The current winds are at 75 mph by the NHC's numbers, but she is forecasted to strengthen rapidly and could very well reach the Cat. 2 stage. There's a SMALL chance that she hits the Cat. 3 stage, but I feel her close proximity to land will keep that from happening. The current track has it making a close, if not direct, hit on Brownsville, TX.

Mesoscale Discussion Out; Watch Possible

As watch is possible for areas in TN/Southern and Eastern Kentucky/ Northern MS and AL. The storm coverage should continue to increase as the day goes on.

Severe Day Ahead: Update

Here's the updated SPC outlooks as of 8 o'clock. And as you can clearly tell, the SPC has all of Mid. TN in the 30% risk are for damaging wind potential. The next update will be at 12:30 and I'll give you any updates then if it changes. I'm getting ready for an eventful weather day and Matt and I will be up during the night blogging the weather scenario if it becomes necessary.

Another Round of Severe Weather Today

Here's the SPC's outlook for us today. The second map shows the wind possibility and areas and places from I-40 northward, have the best chance at seeing the severe weather, but all of the Mid. State has a chance. We could see two rounds of severe weather today. The first will come by the afternoon pop-up storms, and the other round will be what is associated with the actually front pushing through here tonight. The high's today will once again reach the mid to upper 90's with the Heat Index's rising over the 100º mark.

*Yesterday's Middle TN Storm Reports (All Found at the SPC website)

• Smith County, TN (Carthage): Nickel Size Hail reported

• Clay County, TN (Celina): Trees Blown Down in Moss Community and Trees Blown Down Near Intersection of HWY 85 and Turkey Creek HWY

*Dolly: Tropical Storm Dolly has increased her winds too 60 mph and will continue to strengthen as she moves up through the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters. Stormpulse.com has Dolly hitting the southern tip of TX at Cat. 1 strength with winds up to 85 mph and coming within 14 miles west of a Brownsville, TX; direct hit.

Here's today's forecasted high's and storm chances for later this afternoon too.

Nashville: mid to upper 90's; 30% chance
Clarksville: mid 90's; 40% chance
Cookeville: low to mid 90's; 30% chance
Columbia: mid to upper 90's; 30% chance
Manchester: mid 90's; 30% chance

Another Outflow Boundary Image

Hey guys, I'm posting a image from the weatherunderground of the outflow boundary that has formed and is moving my way from the west. Storms should begin to fire after this line has passed through. I'm taking my video camera and will be out videoing the clouds and winds it brings. I thought I should share this with you guys like I did last time.

Severe T'storm Watch #718 (Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau Included)

The SPC has put out Severe T'storm Watch number 718 for us here at the Highland Rim Station, eastward. The batch of storms in southern KY will continue to march this way and that is why the watch has been issued. I'm surprised that a watch was issued today by the SPC cause tomorrow is when our severe day begins. Matt and I will continue to monitor this developing situation, and we will give it back to you guys as soon as we hear and see anything. The counties in Mid. TN that are include are: Macon, Smith, Clay, Jackson, Putnam, Overton, DeKalb, Pickett, Van Buren, White, Fentress, Grundy, and Warren counties.

Severe T'storm Watch #717 (Southern KY in Our Viewing Area)

Well, the day just got more active. The storms that you see in the box, are suppose to continue to increase in size and intensity as they move off towards our direction. Our atmosphere is even riper for development then there's is, so we may very well see storms begin to fire here soon. So Matt and I will be keeping a look out for these storms.

*Matt has a surprise he is going to share with us shortly. And he has pictures too.

WHEW! Do I Have A lot to Blog About!

I never knew missing 2 days of weather would maen this much would happen, but it sure is exciting! This map, as I've always posted, is the SPC's Convective Storm Outlook. This is for tomorrow and as you can tell, all of Mid. TN is included in this slight risk zone with the main threat being a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) developing in MO and KY and spreading and growing as it moves this way. So with that said, damaging wind will be the main threat, but an isolated/brief/weak tornado, can't be ruled out either. The counties on the KY/TN border are almost in a slight risk for today, but the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) decided not to include us in it.
I love looking at the infrared pictures of tropical storms, it gives them more of a mean look. This image is of Tropical Storm Dolly which has sustain winds of 50 mph. It is forecasted to strengthen and move VERY close to the TX/Mexico border around Brownsville, TX. The forecast is for it to hit the border of the US with Mexico, at hurricane strength, making it the first hurricane landfall on the US this 2008 year...and where only in July!

Highland Rim/Cumberland Plateau/and Mid. TN Forecast: As my hand is now cramping up...Today doesn't look any different then the past several days, with the exception of maybe a few isolated spots of 100º's, but who wants to hear that bad news. Yep, areas in southern Mid. TN could very well hit the century mark some time this afternoon and that's not including the heat index numbers (Feel Like Temps. as the TV meteorologist call them) while even places on the plateau (Crossville) will still be close to the mid 90's mark. So the point I'm making is, wait til tomorrow or Weds. after the storms pass through and the temps. get back down into the mid to upper 80's to do yard work. If you have any elderly person in mind today or any day as a matter of fact, check up on them and see how they're doing during these hot days to come in August.

Hot Day; Severe Threat Tuesday

Well repeat is a BIG word here in Tennessee. Well today you can say it again. It'll be hot, it'll be muggy, it'll be MISERABLE!!! Even the air is unhealthy, Code Orange Alert today for air quality. I think we could get a pop-up storm at the 2:00-4:00 time frame.

There is a severe threat on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a threat of; SEE TEXT; for the Middle Tennessee area. Right now it'll be a hit-or-miss severe threat.

Forecast:

Gallatin, Partly Cloudy, High 92 degrees

Nashville, Partly Cloudy, High 93 degrees

Clarksville, Partly Sunny, High 91 degrees

Chances of Rain today, 10%

VOTE IN THE BLOG POLL!!!!

Hot Day; Tropical Storm Cristobal

Well it has been another scorcher here in the Mid-State area. The high today has been 93 DEGREES!!!!! I think that's hot; how 'bout ya'll?

Once again there is a Code Orange Air Advisory, for the Nashville and surrounding areas.

Current Conditions:
Nashville, Mostly Sunny, 91 degrees

Clarksville, Sunny, 90 degrees

Tropical Storm Cristobal; Max.Sustained Winds, 40-45 mph

Pressure at 1008 mb.

Morning and Evening Forecast; July 19th

Hey guys, I've got a jammed packed day in store, so I'm only doing one post today for the morning and evening.

Morning: Today is going to look alot similar to what yesterday looked like. Temps. in the 90's; Small Afternoon Pop-up showers; and high humidity. The better rain chances don't show up til the start of the next work week. But those chances are less then 50% at this time.

Evening: Tonight, you can expect temps. to not feel so low. Most places will not get out of the 70's with the exception being the Cumberland Plateau. The rain chances will back off as the sun sets, so your Saturday evening plans shouldn't be ruined weather wise.

• Counties in and around Nashville are, again, in an Air Quality Alert for today.

• Bertha has yet again strengthened up to hurricane status as of late yesterday.

• The Tropical Wave off the coast of GA and FL, has now been upgraded into a Tropical Depression, and is the 3rd one of the hurricane season so far.

Stay-In-Place Warning

This isn't for us because of the Air Quality Alert, but this if for places in upstate Wisconsin for a methanol tanker truck explosion. Here's the write up and the instructions on what they should do.

WIC075-182300-BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING MARINETTE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI143 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008THE FOLLOWING URGENT MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF MARINETTE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.ON JULY 18 2008 AT APPROXIMATELY 1230 PM THERE WAS AN ACCIDENT INVOLVING A METHANOL TANKER AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 141 AND TOWN CORNER ROAD IN THE TOWN OF AMBERG. AT THIS TIME THE TANKER IS BURNING. PERSONS LIVING WITHIN AN 8 1/2 MILE RADIUS OF THIS INTERSECTION NEED TO SHELTER IN PLACE AND AWAIT FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS.INSTRUCTIONS INCLUDE STAY CALM...GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY INDOORS.CLOSE ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS. TURN OFF ALL VENTILATION...HEATING...AIRCONDITIONING AND CLOSE FIREPLACE DAMPERS. SEAL CRACKS AROUND DOOR SAND WINDOWS WITH TAPE OR WET TOWELS. LISTEN TO RADIO...TV...OR ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS.WAIT FOR THE ALL CLEAR BY PUBLIC SAFETY OFFICIALS.$$GA/TH

Tropical Invest 96L...Cristobal?

Well, from the latest satellite image of this tropical wave, it has the potential to from into a depression very soon. There's a lot of convection around the low pressure center and more seems to be forming. The NHC has put this low pressure center in a medium risk area for development, but it sure looks good right now. Matt and I will continue to monitor the NHC's reports and this situation (as well as the other areas of concern) and relay the information back to you, as soon as possible.

*The current conditions that are reporting close to the low looks like this:

Charleston, SC: Light Rain/Mist; 77ºF; Flash Flood Watch in Effect; mb pressure (1015.1 mb)

Wilmington, NC: Fair; 78ºF; mb pressure (1018.8 mb)

Savannah, GA: Mostly Cloudy; 80ºF; Flash Flood Watch in Effect; mb pressure (1013.9 mb)

Friday Forecast; Weekend Outlook

There's an Air Quality Alert out again for areas of Nashville and the surrounding counties. There's a small, SMALL chance at a pop-up shower/t'shower for the eastern Highland Rim and Plateau areas of Mid. TN for this afternoon. I am putting the chances at about 10% for those areas. From what the models are saying, the best rain chances this weekend look to be on late Sunday as a dissipating cold front moves our way. Along with the slight weekend rain chances, the heat will be on. Temps. look to get in the 90's for everyone and the heat index will be pushing the 100º mark in some spots. Here's your Friday forcasted high's.

Nashville: mid 90's; Air Quality Alert for Davidson County
Clarksville: low to mid 90's
Cookeville: upper 80's; 10% chance
Columbia: low to mid 90's
Manchester: low 90's; 10% chance

Hot Day;Air Quality Alert Tomorrow

It has been a hot and dry day for many here in Middle Tennessee. I expect the dry weather pattern to continue into the weekend. On Monday I think we will be seeing a chance of showers and storms.

...CODE ORANGE ALERT ISSUED FOR THE NASHVILLE AREA ON FRIDAY...

THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION HAS
ISSUED A CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY FOR AIR QUALITY IN THE
NASHVILLE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED LEVELS OF OZONE. POLLUTANTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UNHEALTHY RANGE FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION
RECOMMENDS THAT ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS, AND PEOPLE WITH
RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS ASTHMA, LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR
EXERTION.
$$
STEIGERWALDT

Here's the three day forecast:

Friday, Sunny with a high near 92 degrees

Saturday, Mostly Sunny with a high near 92 degrees

Sunday, Mostly Sunny with a high near 90 degrees

Volunteer Weather Blog

Hey to all my blog readers, I was wanting to tell ya'll about a site ran by a guy who is a moderator at Tennesseewx.com , his name I can't say, but his site, www.SouthernTnWx.wordpress.com is a site I can speak of. Over on his site, has a discussion section on his blog and all you do is look at the top bar where it says, "Severe", "Tropical", "Forecast", etc. and on the end, you will see a tab that says"Talk", just click on that and it takes you to the discussion section, you'll also see my enteries as well. Have fun at his site and thanks for visiting mine and Matt's too!

Active Tropics; Tennessee's Forecast

Here's the busy, NHC (National Hurricane Centers) take on the low pressure systems out and about in the Atlantic. They're getting there paychecks worth this week! This could be a sign of things to come for later on during the August and September hurricane months. With that in mind, they may not all be strong, there's a slight chance that Bertha will be the strongest one on recorded this year, but it be an above average year.

Getting on too us Tennesseans forecast, today looks the same likes it has been for the past 4 days, but we are beginning to warm up and everyone should reach or get close to the 90º mark some time this afternoon. Change is coming in the world of weather for us soon (I feel like Obama!), this High Pressure can't stay here forever and it won't. The next chance of rain comes this weekend, but I still believe that not everyone will see rain and maybe not alot of people.

Nashville: low to mid 90's
Clarksville: low 90's
Cookeville: upper 80's to low 90's
Columbia: low to mid 80's
Manchester: low 90's

Child Abduction Emergency

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
AMBER ALERT MESSAGE
TBI NASHVILLE TN
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
AMBER ALERT MESSAGE
TBI NASHVILLE TN
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
0333 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

...OFFICIAL AMBER ALERT...

THIS IS A CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY RECEIVED BY THE
TENNESSEE BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION


A MIDDLE TENNESSEE REGIONAL AMBER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
THE TENNESSEE BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION FOR THE MAURY COUNTY
SHERIFF`S DEPARTMENT FOR THIRTEEN YEAR OLD RYAN BRONSON
WALDRUM.

RYAN MADE A NINE ONE ONE CALL STATING SOMEONE WAS BREAKING
INTO HIS RESIDENCE AND UPON LAW ENFORCEMENTS ARRIVAL AT
HIS RESIDENCE FOUND THE FRONT DOOR OPEN AND RYAN MISSING.
NUMEROUS VALUABLES WERE MISSING FROM THE RESIDENCE AS
WELL. RYAN IS A WHITE MALE WITH BROWN HAIR AND BROWN
EYES. HE IS FIVE FEET SIX INCHES TALL AND WEIGHS ONE
HUNDRED AND FIFTY FIVE POUNDS NO CLOTHING DESCRIPTION IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME FOR RYAN. IF YOU HAVE SEEN RYAN OR
HAVE INFORMATION REGARDING HIS ABDUCTION, PLEASE CONTACT
THE TENNESSEE BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION AT ONE EIGHT HUNDRED
T B I FIND OR THE MAURY COUNTY SHERIFF`S DEPARTMENT AT
NINE THREE ONE THREE EIGHT EIGHT FIVE ONE FIVE ONE

Air Quality Alert Day

Today, the NWS in Nashville (OHX), has put the counties that Matt mentioned in the previous post under an Air Quality Alert. Other then that bit of bad news, the day looks to be pretty nice, but with this ozone air we're breathing in, don't stay outside too long. If you've visited the NOAA site and click on the Mid. TN map, you've probably seen where this weekend we have a 20% chance of having pop-up storms each day. Not everyone will see rain Saturday or Sunday, I even think the majority of the people won't see rain period on either days, but those chances are there, and these pop-up storms do exactly what there called, "Pop-up" and do it rather fast. Here's today's forecasted high's.

Nashville: low to mid 90's; Air Quality Alert for Davidson County
Clarksville: low 90's
Cookeville: mid to upper 80's
Columbia: low 90's
Manchester: low 90's

Blog Poll Results #6

" What's Your Favorite Weather News Station?"

News 2 (WKRN): 4 votes

Channel 4 (WSMV): 3 votes

NewsChannel 5 (WTVF): 2 votes

Fox 17 (WZTV): 0 votes

Thanks to everyone for voting. There's a new blog question to the top right to replace this one. Don't forget to vote!

Cool Evening; Air Quality Alert Tomorrow

It is going to be a cool evening with lows in the Lower to Middle 60's! Some outlying areas could hit the upper 50's!! Expect cool, clear conditions until Saturday!

Tomorrow there is an Air Quality Alert in effect for the following counties;ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-CANNON- Please remember to limit over exertion to the outdoors especially for young children and sensitive groups such as, Asthma, Resperiatory Problems, etc.

Here is some info. to pass along the wire; NOAA Weather Radios on the frequency of 162.5500 MHz (Robertson, Sumner, Davidson, Macon, Trousdale, Wilson, Montgomerey, Dickson, Cheatam counties) will be out of operation on Thursday for several hours due to routine maintenance. This will only be done weather permitting!

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Wonderful Mid. TN Day Ahead; Invest 94L

The weather today in the Music City areas, will be GREAT! I'm heading off to Beech Bend today with my church youth group and the weather couldn't be any nicer for this time of the year! The humidity will, again, stay low along with the pleasant sunshine too give us all a day to be outdoors. The high's should reach the 90º mark in Nashville, but everyone else should mainly stay in the upper 80's. The next rain chances still look to come this weekend, but Matt and I will keep a watch and see if any of this changes.

As Matt mentioned last night, there's a tropical wave down in the Lesser Antilles that is giving us some concern. This morning's satellite image of this wave, has most of the convection on the west side of the low, but the convection could become more centered around the low later today and if that happens...then we have ourselves a tropical depression which could strengthen into Tropical Storm Cristobal in a very short time. We'll will keep a lookout for any further development in this wave, and report it back too you as soon as possible. Remember to vote in the blog poll to the right if you haven't yet!

Nashville: low 90's
Clarksville: upper 80's
Cookeville: mid to upper 80's
Columbia: upper 80's
Manchester: upper 80's

GREAT Day; Better Evening

It has been an absolutely GORGEOUS day in the Mid-State area. Most temperatures didn't hit the 90 degree mark. The humidity was LOW making for a nice day after the cooler air was in place after the front moved through. Now were set up in a trough which will really stabalize our atmosphere this week. The next chance of rain appears to be on Saturday/Sunday.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Bertha is now impacting Bermuda, and Hurricane Elida will continue to move off the western edge of Mexico Headed West. There is an area the NHC is monitering to upgrade to tropical "Depression" status. This area is to the East of the Lesser Antilles.

Have a Great Night!!!!

Not Humid, Not Muggy, Not July?

Well...no it's still July, but is it going to feel great today! It will be less humid and we are not forecasting rain til the, you guessed it, weekend roles around. The high's today will be right around 87F for Nashville and about 84F for the Cookeville region. Some patchy fog may have formed sown in southern TN last night, but it should clear very soon. Remember to vote in the blog poll on the top right if you haven't yet. Here's today's forecasted high's.

Nashville: upper 80's
Clarksville: mid to upper 80's
Cookeville: mid 80's
Columbia: mid to upper 80's
Manchester: mid to upper 80's

Cooler Day; Fog for the Morning Commute

Well after the front passed through the Mid-State region it brought considerbly noticeable cool air, well at least in Gallatin it was noticed! We dodged the "Severe Bullet" for today but there were a few reports of trees down in the Old Hickory Area from Saturday Night's linear convection. For the rest of the evening expect temperatures to drop tonight and the cloud cover should diminish for all.

There is one hazard to report for tomorrow morning's commute to work;"Patchy Fog" If you run into foggy areas slow down and use your headlights, (and your HEAD!) Make tomorrow a good commute! Have a nice day!

Rainfall Totals from Gallatin for Saturday and Sunday; .74"

DON'T FORGET TO VOTE IN THE BLOG POLL AT THE TOP RIGHT!!!

Tonight's Forecast; Sunday's Surprise

The map above is a look at the Fort Campbell radar and the movement of the cells and lines. The big question is timing. If these storms come in here to late tomorrow...not much in the way of severe weather. If these storms come in here during the overnight hours...the atmosphere may rebound in time for the afternoon pop-up storm chances. I'll be, and maybe Matt, will be keeping a watch on this line and the NWS updates for further changes in this activity. For tonight, you can expect a warm and muggy evening with the storms moving in from the NW as you can tell by the radar. Here's tonight's forecasted high's and rain chances.

Nashville: low 70's; 60% chance
Clarksville: low 70's; 70% chance
Cookeville: upper 60's; 60% chance
Columbia: low 70's; 60% chance
Manchester: low 70's; 50% chance

Total Precip. From Today's Action...So Far

Here's the rainfall totals so far from today's rains. Storms are still rolling through areas of eastern and southern Mid. TN and also in far NW Mid. TN around Paris. The little red dot is my location in Macon County, as you can see, I saw nothing in the rain bucket today, but did get a chance to see the clouds that brought the rain to the eastern portion of the county. There are currently Flood Advisories out for Macon, Clay, Smith, and Monroe (KY) counties for the heavy rain that they've received. Also east of Crossville on the map, you can see the heavy rainfall amounts of around 4"+. That county, Morgan County, is also in a Flood Advisory. The rain could continue til the sun goes down for anywhere in Mid. TN, but especially for areas where the rain has been all day. I'll have the evening forecast, as well as tomorrow's severe chances later on.

Midday Update: 7/12

I've been watching the radar and a line of storms formed JUST east of the Highland Rim Station. The line has since weakened and broken-up, but other storms are beginning to fire in the eastern and southern Mid. TN areas. I'm not going to video today's action, waiting til tomorrow for a better chance. Speaking of tomorrow. Here's OHX's (NWS in Nashville's call name) Hazardous WX Outlook.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID STATE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING...LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

Steamy Saturday; Soaking Sunday?

Good Saturday morning everyone! Today, things look to stay on the rather warm and muggy side (Dewpoints in the 70's...UGH!). There's a slight chance at an afternoon pop-up shower/t'shower for everyone in Mid. TN, but if you do get one of these showers, wait it out and you'll be fine the rest of the day. Sunday still looks intriguing, but the SPC has taken out the slight risk area for us and replaced it with a "See Text". The main risk for Sunday has to deal with a isolated damaging wind threat. Here's today's forecasted high's. I'm putting everyone's chances for rain today at 20%.

Nashville: low 90's
Clarksville: low 90's
Cookeville: mid to upper 80's
Columbia: low 90's
Manchester: low 90's

Nice Evening in Store, Still watching for Sunday's Severe wx

Excluding the heat it has been a nice day! It has remained mostly sunny in Gallatin all day. There are a few Air Quality Alerts in East Tennessee but that's about the extent of enclement weather for today.

Tomorrow expect a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a high near 91 degrees

Current Conditions:

Nashville, Sunny, 89 degrees

Lebanon, Mostly Sunny, 89 degrees

Smyrna, Mostly Sunny, 94 degrees

Gallatin, Sunny, 90 degrees

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY

Beautiful Day So Far, Severe Weather in the Forecast

Sunny, Blue Skies, Slight Breeze, can you guess where I am talking about?, well it is Gallatin, TN! It is a marvelous day if you're watching it from inside. The heat is taking away a ton of the nice-ness of the day. Make sure to drink water before working outside and to keep replenishing your fluids throughout the day if indeed you are working outside.

Severe Weather is in the picture for Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has Middle Tennessee under a categorical "Slight" Risk of severe weather, this means that there is a 5% chance of severe weather being reported within 25 mi. of any point within the outlook area.

Currently Around the Mid-State:

Nashville, Sunny, 83 degrees

Gallatin, Sunny 85 degrees

Lebanon, Mostly Sunny 85 degrees

Please take a look-see at this forum. It is the Official SKYWARN forum. Join the growing community of which both me and Charles are a part of! www.skywarnforum.org/forums

Great Day for You Today

It is going to be a great day for everyone in the Mid-State area. The heat though might change your opinions. The forecasted high today is near 91 DEGREES!!! That's a little toasty! There is a possibility of severe weather on Sunday.

Current Conditions:

Nashville, Partly Sunny, 72 degrees

Clarksville, Cloudy, 72 degrees

Tullahoma, Partly Sunny, 71 degrees

Muggy Day, Storms in the Southern Counties

It has been a muggy day! I know my clothes became another layer of skin. It has been mostly dry in Gallatin, areas to our south received some beneficial rainfall. Right now, Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles counties are getting rain. Tonight should remain mostly cloudy with a low around 67 degrees.

3-Day Forecast:

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny with a high near 87 degrees

Saturday: 30% chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Mostly Cloudy with a high near 90 degrees

Sunday: 50% Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms. Mostly Cloudy with a high near 87 degrees

Tomorrow I'll be doing the blog posting. Charles will not be here.

Yesterday's and This Morning's Rain Fall Totals; More Wet Weather Today

The map above is from the weatherunderground website and I've added my own paint to it to show you some areas that got nice rains from yesterday and, surprisingly, this morning. These areas received a good amount of rain.

Right around Ashland City, TN (Cheatham County): 4"+
Celina, TN (Clay County): 3"+
Jackson, TN (Madison County): 2-3"+

Today, you can expect most of the rains and thunder to stay to the north til about the noontime hour, then it will progress on towards the south and give you guys in the lower TN Valley some rain for the afternoon and evening hours. There was Flash Flooding and Flood Advisories out yesterday for some people, so watch, again, for the potential for flooded roads and creeks with today's rainfall potential of around 2-3".

Nashville: mid 80's; rain clearing around 1-2 this evening; 40% chance
Clarksville: mid to upper 80's; rain clearing around 10:00 this morning; 30% chance
Cookeville: mid to upper 70's; rain clearing around 3 this evening. 50% chance
Columbia: low to mid 80's; rain clearing around 5 this evening; 50% chance
Manchester: low 80's; rain clearing late this evening; 50% chance

Late Night Update

Some showers and storms are closing in on the Metro-Nashville area. Clarksville is receiving some very beneficial rains and that is moving in on us, YEAHHH! I don't expect anything severe out of these, but some gusty winds to 30 m.p.h. aren't out of the question. Expect the brunt of the activity to reach our area by 12:00 am.

Tomorrow expect Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Have a good night everyone!!!

Stormy Evening, Some Storms Strong

Good Afternoon. Today has been a wet day for many, starting out with gust-front induced convection, then several more lines of Multi-Cellular Clusters. Not to many storms were strong, but I do have a Local Storm Report to pass along.

207 pm.
7/09/08
Thunderstorm Wind Damage- 7mi. South East of Dickson- Dickson County
As Reported by a: Trained Spotter

Several Trees Blown Down

For the rest of the evening, expect showers and storms, a few of which could be strong. Tomorrow should be a repeat performance, showers and storms.

Current Conditions:
Gallatin, 79 degrees, Mostly Cloudy
Lebanon, 73 degrees, Cloudy
Smyrna, 76 degrees, Cloudy
Have a great rest of the day!

Slight Risk and MCD Issued by The SPC

The first picture, is a Mesoscale Discussion that is for parts of Eastern Mid. TN and Eastern TN for a possible watch later on today. The second picture is from the SPC where they issued a slight risk for areas east of the Tenn. River. Damaging winds are the biggest threat with the storms that do fire. The clouds are just now beginning to clear here, and that will help destabilizte the atmopshere from this morning's beneficial rain. I'll have more updates as the day goes on, but here's the statement givin by the SPC for us here in Mid. TN.

...TN VALLEY TO NC/VA... LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO SAG SEWD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD FOCUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC TODAY. WV IMAGERY FAILS TO INDICATE ANY WELL DEFINED SYSTEM ACROSS THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH LONGER-LIVED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AR AND INTO ERN KY/MIDDLE TN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSES WHICH ARE LIKELY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED. STRONG HEATING FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO WRN VA/NC SHOULD SUPPORT VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES REMAIN QUITE WEAK FROM THE MID SOUTH WWD... MODEST 2-3 KM WLY FLOW /I.E. NEAR 25 KT/ EVIDENT ON VWPS FROM KY/TN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE WITH INCREASED SURFACE HEATING FROM MIDDLE TN EWD. RESIDUAL CLOUDS OVER THE NRN/ERN VA NWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL TEMPER STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE NEAR THE EAST COAST...ALTHOUGH CLEARING FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL VA/NC LATER TODAY.

Outflow Boundary on Radar

Here's the outflow boundary (circled in blue) from looking at the Old Hickory radar at the NWS office on the weatherunderground radar. I circled the red around the storms that have fired due to the outflow boundary. We should expect more storms to fire as this boundary moves southeastward.

UPDATE: The outflow boundary passed the Highland Rim Station at around 8:50 this morning. It brought with it some noticeable wind and GREAT looking clouds. I don't know what clouds they where, but they looked "bumpy" which gives me an idea that they may have been Mammatus clouds, but am still unsure. I hope we see more action later on when the storms fire during the heat of the day.

Wet and Stormy Tuesday

We've already seen some isolated showers come over the Highland Rim TN WX Center. Here's the NWS in Nashville's take on today's stormy side.

ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY TO POSSIBLY EVEN DAMAGING WINDS. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

There's a line of storms right now that's above us in KY around the Hopkinsville area that is moving this way. Hail and gusty winds could be embedded in that line too as well as frequent lightning. I'll have more updates as the day, and storms, develop. Here's today's forecasted high's and storm chances.

Nashville: upper 80's; 70% chance
Clarksville: mid to upper 80's; 80% chance
Cookeville: low to mid 80's; 70% chance
Columbia: upper 80's; 70% chance
Manchester: upper 80's; 60% chance

Hot is the word tonight!

The title says it all, IT IS HOT!!!! Currently at the AP7 Office it is 91.6 degrees! That's a bit toasty. Expect the sun to shine for most in Middle Tennessee, though there is a slight chance of seeing a nice little pop-up shower. Tomorrow is a different story. As a cold front moves into the mid-state tomorrow, there is about a 5% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point. If you get one of these strong storms you can expect, Large Hail and Damaging Winds. I'll be posting again at 9:00 to do a full forecast and Current Conditions.

Yesterday's Storm Reports; Hurricane Bertha Update

Here's the infrared look at Hurricane Bertha. Yesterday, Bertha had a better look to herself, but she has grown into a Cat. 3 hurricane surpassing all first assumptions. Here's some of the latest stats from Bertha.

• Winds: 120 mph

• Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 3

• Barometric Pressure: 955 mb

• Movement: NW at 10 mph; a less then 10% chance at a U.S. landfall; about a 40% chance at a Bermuda direct hit.

Now, back here in the Mid. State, we didn't get away from a quiet day. Here's some of the storm reports called in to the NWS in Nashville and the NWS in Louisville.

• Monroe County, KY (8 miles SE of Tompkinsville): Trees down in several areas, damage done to several outbuildings.

• Montgomery County, TN ( 4 miles E of Clarksville): Tree was blown onto a house; tree was blocking a road.

• Warren County, KY (2 miles SE of Oakland): Tree Down

For today, I'm going to issue a slight chance at a afternoon pop-up storm, but don't expect it to be anything like yesterday. We look to hit the 90º mark yet again, but if you get a pop-up shower then your temperature may drop down into the upper 70's! The next BIG rain/storm chance comes in tomorrow with a frontal boundary. Today's highs will range from the low 90's in Nashville; too the mid to upper 80's on the far Eastern Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau.

MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) Update

Here's the latest radar image at 10:49 a.m. and as you can tell, the system seems to be weakening, but it looks like it may hold together long enough to bring us some rain. With this line, there is very heavy rain and frequent lightning. From the weatherunderground Doppler radar, there is currently hail to half inch being detected on radar with the cell right on I-65 in KY. The winds may gust to around 35-40 mph with this line of embedded storms as well. We, if it holds, should expect to see the line here in Northern Mid. TN by around the lunchtime hour. I'll be out videoing it!!!!

Blog Poll Results #5

"What's the Hottest It's Been At Your House This Year?"

Below 90º: 1 vote

90º-92º: 1 vote

93º-95º: 1 vote

Above 95º: 2 votes

Thanks to everyone for answering and remember to vote in the new blog poll on the right side of the blog!

Hurricane Bertha Is Alive!; HOT Day Ahead

I was going to upload a picture of Bertha, but the family computer is being its normal self! Well from the latest satellite image, you can clearly tell that an eye is about to form in the center of the convection. I've got good news and bad news. The good news with Bertha is that it doesn't look to make a U.S. landfall, but that still could change. The bad news is that the latest tracks that I've seen, have it making a direct hit on Bermuda, but that is still too early to determine too. Both Matt and I will continue to monitor what this hurricanes path will be in the coming days and will relay the news back to you guys.

Now for us today, all we have to deal with is HOT. HOT, HOT conditions. The models are suggesting at areas in Southern KY and Northern TN to get some rain from the MCS system that's up in Indiana and Illinois this morning, but I'm not thinking that we will see much in the way of rain today. The highs will reach as high as, maybe in some spots, the mid 90's. Here's today's forecasted highs.

Nashville: low 90's (mid 90's in isolated spots)
Clarksville: low 90's
Cookeville: upper 80's
Columbia: low 90's (mid 90's in isolated spots)
Manchester: low 90's

Great Evening Tonight!!!

It has been a great day today! Got to finish off the leftover fireworks today! Looks like our next chance of rain will be any time this week! Not to much weather news today so i'll get right to it!

Current Conditions:

Gallatin, 76.3 degrees, Clear

Nashville, 75.2 degrees, clear

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. South southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Mostly Clear Night; Isolated Rain Chances Tomorrow

Tonight, you can expect quit conditions after today's pop-up shower activity. Tomorrow you can expect, for most, a quit day, but I can't rule out an isolated shower in a couple of Mid. TN backyards. Here's tonight's comfortable lows.

Nashville: mid 60's
Clarksville: mid 60's
Cookeville: low 60's (some isolated upper 50's over towards Monterrey/Jamestown)
Columbia: mid 60's
Manchester: mid to upper 60's

Clearing Out Today; Busted Rain Fall Total

The rain fall totals from yesterday, wasn't the amount that the models put it up too be. I have yet to check my rain gauge and give a report too CoCoRaHS, but I know it's no where near the 1.5" of rain that was predicted by models. The weather looks nice especially in the northern and western areas of Mid. TN today, but as you go southeast towards Chattanooga things look wet for those areas. The high's today will stay in the 80's everywhere. Here's today's forecasted high's and rain chances.

Nashville: upper 80's; 20% chance
Clarksville: upper 80's
Cookeville: mid 80's; 30% chance
Columbia: mid to upper 80's; 20% chance
Manchester: low 80's (cloudier); 40% chance

Happy 4th of July, Isolated Showers Around

I hope everybody is having a FANTASTIC 4TH. We're having tons of fun with smoke bombs and bottle rockets. There are a few strong thunderstorms in the Middle Tennessee area. The MD that the SPC had us in was interesting, glad to see no watch came out of that (if it was any other day I would have been miffed!)

Current Conditions:

Gallatin, Mostly Cloudy, 82 degrees

Nashville, Mostly Cloudy, 83 degrees

HAVE A HAPPY SAFE 4TH, GOD BLESS AMERICA

Mesoscale Discussion Out For Us

Here's the discussion given by the SPC.


RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND NORTHERN AL INTO WV/FAR WESTERN VA. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

The SPC is thinking that storms should continue to form and grow in and around the MSD areas throught the afternoon hours. Damaging winds is the main threat, but there is also a slight chance at some severe hail.

Midday Update: 7/4

Here's the Nashville weatherunderground radar as of 12:13. There's one Severe T'storm Warning in effect and it's in Lawrence County (AL.) for penny size hail and winds in excess of 60 mph. We could start to see these same storms pop-up here in Mid. TN as early as 1-2 p.m. I'll have more updates if it becomes necessary.

Independence Day Forecast

Good Morning everyone. As we celebrate the 4th of July with fireworks and cookouts with our families, please take time to remember that freedom doesn't come free and that we have soldiers sacrificing alot for the freedom that we are blessed to have. The forecast for today looks wet and wet and wet, BUT it shouldn't be a complete washout and you should be able to get your fireworks in, but cookouts...Uh...that's one that may be "burned" out. The rain and cloud cover, will keep our temperatures down too, and I'm putting the chances at 60% today for everyone and 40% after the sun sets. Here's today's forecasted high's.

Nashville: low 80's
Clarksville: low 80's
Cookeville: upper 70's to low 80's
Columbia: low to mid 80's
Manchester: low 80's

Cloudy Evening, Rain Chances for the 4th

Well today was a great day to begin with but the cloud cover crept in and the "nice-ness" of the day quickly wore off. We had a lite shower move over the AP7 Station in Gallatin but we only had a few sprinkles. Tomorrow expect clouds all day and some rain showers into the day and night, this will be hit and miss so not a complete washout for your fireworks plans.

Current Conditions:

Gallatin, 76.1 degrees, Thunder
Nashville, 75 degrees, Cloudy

Tomorrow, 70% chance of rain during the day, 40% chance during the overnight hours.

Good Night, and Be Safe with your Fireworks!

Tropical Depression Two; Mother Natures Fireworks Friday

The African wave that I've been talking about for the past two days or so, has finally reached depression stage. The map above shows the NHC's projected track of this depression and they expect it to only reach tropical storm strength, but if that's so, it will be given the name Bertha.

Today for us Mid. Tennesseans, we look to have a mostly sunny sky with possibly clouds building in later on. The 4th is still not looking good for the fireworks and cookouts, but don't cancel your plans, cause the storms/rains will only be spotty, but we do all need the rain.

Nashville: low 90's

Clarksville: upper 80's

Cookeville: low 80's

Columbia: low 90's

Manchester: upper 80's to low 90's

Midday Update 7/2

I'll start with the tropical wave out in the eastern Atlantic. The wave still has been noted to reach the depression stage of 35 mph winds, but the NHC is still looking at this wave and are saying that it could form into one at any given moment over the next couple of days as it slowly moves to the west.

The GFS models are still showing the potential for rain and storms for Friday evening. It's still too early to put up a favorable probability, but the NWS is putting our chances at 40%-50%. I'll keep monitoring the situation and I'll tell Matt to give his opinion on how he views what the models are saying in time for his evening forecast. But I'm thinking we have a good chance for pop-up storms, but it won't be a total wash-out, but keep a look towards the sky before you start your 4th of July activity's.

Tropical Storm Bertha?; Stormy 4th of July?

I'll first start off with the national news. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) is watching this strong African wave for development. The good news is that the current models have this storm missing us way to the south. The bad news is that this is not a good sign for later on during the year. We typically don't start looking at this area for ripe development til the end of July through the rest of the hurricane season. The last time we had a wave this strong come off the coast of Africa and produce a strong hurricane, was back in 1996 and its name was, ironically, Hurricane Bertha.

Now for today, things look quit yet again. Low dewpoints and low humidity equal a nice day for outdoor activity's today. Now...I know everyone once to know about what the 4th will bring. Well the models are showing a good contrast in either rain or no rain. One model is putting it off til maybe after everyones events, but another model is saying that it will most likely rain on your parade. I'll look into more information and have a midday update concerning the tropical wave and the 4th's outlook. Here's the forecasted high's for today.

Nashville: upper 80's
Clarksville: upper 80's
Cookeville: low 80's
Columbia: upper 80's to low 90's
Manchester: upper 80's

Cool Evening Tonight, Rain on the Fourth

It's been a cloudy but cool day here in Middle Tennessee. For most no rainfall was reported yesterday. It looks to be a GREAT day tomorrow. But, on the Fourth of July, we're running about a 50% chance of seeing some thunderstorms. This will affect Independence Day Plans.

Current Conditions:

Gallatin, Mostly Cloudy, 71.5 degrees

Smyrna, Clear, 74 degrees

Nashville, Partly Cloudy, 78 degrees

Have a nice night!

Great Way To Start July...Too Bad It Won't Stay!

After very nice overnight lows, our temps. will jump back up into the mid to upper 80's under a mostly sunny sky. We don't see our next rain chance come til...you guessed it, Friday night into Saturday. I wouldn't worry about if your cookout or fireworks will be rained out, but just keep a close watch to your local TV meteorologist and here for more updates as we get closer to the 4th. Here's todays' forecasted high's.

Nashville: mid to upper 80's
Clarksville: mid 80's
Cookeville: upper 70's
Columbia: mid to upper 80's
Manchester: mid 80's