Great Weather Continues; Rain Chances Increase For Independence Weekend?

Yesterday was a great day to get outside and enjoy the sun and maybe shoot off some bottle rockets as we are inching ourselves closer to Independence Day. Many areas yesterday hit temps. in the mid to upper 80's which felt great since last week we were in the sauna constantly with no escape. Today, areas will only see their temps. get to the mid 80's and on Wednesday...we are looking at low to mid 80's all around. Good thing I am playing my golf game on Wednesday!

With these "cooling" trends, the next thing on your mind is more then likely when is it going to rain. We will have some waves of energy move in Thursday and Friday, but they will be very weak and only isolated areas will see rain. It isn't until the weekend rolls around that we see those chances jump up to 30-40%. Now with that said, not everyone will see rain and storms those two night, and even if you do get some rain...it will not be enough to cancel your fireworks show or cookout.

And we still have a good 4-5 says to see what happens. If this front decides to slow down...most of the rain may be on Sunday and Monday. Whereas if it speeds up it could get here by Friday and early Saturday. But as of right now the best rain and storm chances look to be on Independence Day and Sunday.

Severe T'storm Watch Issued...Doesn't Contain Any In OHX region

As I anticipated, the SPC has issued a watch for SE TN, but the southern most counties in Middle TN are Franklin, Moore, and Lincoln...all of those are not in the Nashville NWS office. They are in Huntsville's NWS area.

I want to point out though that we could still see some strong storms form along the southern and southeastern sections of Middle TN, so please keep up with what the weather is like in your immediate area.

Weather Graphic: 6/28 Update

This is the weatherunderground radar view as of 12:13 pm and where you see the red circle, that is where the best areas of storm development could take place. There is a storm in Grundy County, SE Mid. TN, where I am watching to see what it can do.

From the map and looking at the SPC's MCD out. This is where the cold front is positioned, blue line. Places like Clarksville and Dickson are clear of the rain chances for today and soon Nashville will be as this front continues its SE march. Once we see this clearage, sunny skies should surface as should a NW wind to help keep the temperature and humidity down.

As mentioned, the SPC has a MCD out for areas of SE/ parts of E Middle TN. A Severe T'storm Watch is possible, but more then likely they will issue one for further into GA as there is only about a 2-3 hour window of storm opportunity in these regions. We will see what the SPC and local NWS offices does and I will relay that back here.

Severe Storms Possible Today; Not Widespread However

We will have a weak cold front move through this region today and early this evening, we will see isolated severe storms pop anywhere here in Middle TN today, but the best chances lie across areas from mainly Nashville eastward and then on the TN/AL line. Any storms that do form will have the potential at 60-65 mph winds and large hail up to nickel size.

The hail threat won't be as prominent as we will have warm air aloft that will hamper in the hail formation process, but if we do see a storm produce large updraft and have a large VIL, which all VIL stands for is Vertically Integrated Liquid and that shows you how much moisture is in a storm. The higher the VIL, the more moisture and the greatest chance of seeing hail.

*As I was typing this post, I looked out my window and I am staring into the heart of a thick fog. When I started typing this post there was almost no fog present, now there is a thick blanket of it. And I do not live by a water source that would cause it to build up faster either. So be careful driving this morning if you run into thick areas of fog.

MCD: Watch Possible Southern/SE Middle TN

To my surprise, the SPC has issued a MCD for these regions of the SE. Storms are forming right now in SE Middle TN but are not severe. With this dry air in place I am surprised we are seeing these storms fire this early, that means by later on this afternoon...we could see some go severe. Hence the reason we have this possible watch outlook. I will be here giving you the latest on watches and storm reports if any surface.

Heat Advisory: Western Middle TN

The NWS out of Nashville has issued a Heat Advisory for the following counties: Stewart, Montgomery, Benton, Houston, Humphreys, Dickson, Perry, Hickman, Lewis, Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles.

It goes into effect at 1 pm and will last til 8 pm. Temperatures will get up into the mid 90's and with abundant moisture present...the heat indexes will reach between 105º-107º.

Outdoor activity isn't advised in these regions, but if you do happen to be outdoors, make sure you drink plenty of fluids and wear light color clothes.

The SPC has our area zoned for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The main threats will be for isolated wind and hail potential in the strongest of storms. Too bad we can't get the rain relief today, I know the ones in western Middle TN would love some rain and clouds!

Slight Risk Issued For Today...Local Damaging Winds Main Threat

Temperatures will rise into the low 90's here and that, while accompanied with DP's in the low 70º range, will cause some scattered storms to develop over Middle TN and SCK. The best areas to experience this action will be the N/NE sections, but all of Middle TN can see storms pop.

Damaging winds will be the main threat, as we will have warm air aloft that will keep the hail potential at bay. We also have almost no shear or lift in the atmosphere...that is why the tornadic threat is at zero or very close to it.

Morning Convection, More Possible Later Today; Sunday's Severe Risk

This broad area of rain is moving SE at 35 mph and will only affect the NE sections of Middle TN and SCK. Rainfall amounts will be generally around the .25"-.5" rain category, but locally higher amounts are possible in the brief downpours.

We are expecting more storms to fire up later this afternoon. The SPC only has us in a "See Text" zone, but that still is a severe category, so we could see one or two isolated severe pulse storms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat today.

This is Sunday's map and as you can tell, all of Middle TN and most of SCK is included. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks, but this event is still two more days away...so the timing and intensity is still up in the air so to speak.

SPC Convective Outlook High Risk Day Research; Phased Array Radar

Over the past few days, I have looked at the SPC's convective outlook for them issuing High risk zones. Here are a few facts:

• Total # of High Risk Days Issued (since recordings began in 1984): 77


• Busted: 13


• Small Events (could have been a MDT or Slight risk day and done well): 5

The February 5th Tornado Outbreak tied for the deadliest High Risk day ever since recordings began. So that tells you how rare that event was...

As far as busted outlooks go, in the past 8 years from 2001-now, the SPC has busted 8 times. Over the other past 17 years (from 1984-2000)...only 5 busted.

I bring that statistic up not to make the SPC look bad because they do a great job on issuing these outlooks (77 total with only 13 busts!), but that is a problem that when over the past 8 years, 8 events have not gone as predicted. But at the same time it is a good thing because lose of property and life didn't occur, but for forecasting purposes...it was a bust and needs correcting

A new radar system called 'Phased Array Radar', is a newly developed system that will give you the same information the typical Doppler radar would, but in faster time. The researchers believe that with this new technology, they could increase warning times from the 10 minutes now...to 18-22 minutes. That extra 8-12 minutes is very crucial even if it doesn't seem like much.

This system works with 6 different radar beams going out at once collecting data. While the convectional Doppler radar would just give out the one beam or "sweep" we see on TV. That would normally take 5 minutes to do. With these 6 beams all working together...it cuts that new radar scan time down to 30 seconds. That is a huge difference!

They are also trying to develop a new product called 'Rotation Tracker' that will allow meteorologist to look at the increase or decrease in shear over time. Shear is a crucial, and key ingredient in the making of tornadoes. More info can be found on these projects at www.nssl.noaa.gov/par/

Still 90º's...But Less Humid! Thankfully!!!

After having the past couple of days stuck in the fringe of this "H" pressure, we see it move a little to the west today and that will give us lower temps., less humidity, and also a nice NE wind to help cool things off as well.

We still will be in the 90's across all of Middle TN, but not the 96ºF readings or anything like that. (I'm forecasting 92ºF in Nashville) The only bad thing about today is that we won't have a rain chance to help cool things off even more, but Friday we do see a system from the NW come down and it gives all of Middle TN a chance (SE corner has the lowest chance).

I do want to stress that even with this weather being more bearable, it isn't an all clear to go outside and stay out all day. With temps. in the 90ºF range, it wouldn't take people long to get overheated, so please drink plenty of water if you are out today.

LSR's From Yesterday's Event; More Isolated T'storms Today?

There were many counties in Middle TN and SCK that saw some wind damage from yesterday's morning/early afternoon event, as well as yesterday's early night event. Here is the list of counties in both TN and KY that saw some damage.

SCK:
Albany, KY (Clinton): Tree down
Brownsville, KY (Edmonson): Trees down throughout county
Roundhill, KY (Butler): Tree down on Edmonson/Butler county lines
Morgantown, KY (Butler): Trees down
Edmonton, KY (Metcalfe): Trees down in the city limits
Bowling Green, KY (Warren): Trees down in city limts
Franklin, KY (Simpson): Several trees down
Scottsville, KY (Allen): Trees, telephone, and power lines down across county
Auburn, KY (Logan): A couple trees down
Dawson Springs, KY (Hopkins): Street signs down, tree debris in roadway

TN:
Celina, TN (Clay): Trees and power lines down
Byrdstown, TN (Pickett): One tree down
Orlinda, TN (Roberston): Trees down
Cross Plains, TN (Roberston): 71 mph wind gust
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Trees and power lines down in Donelson
Nashville, TN (Davidson): Spotter reported 60 mph wind dust and power outages
Gallatin, TN (Sumner): Trees down
Lebanon, TN (Wilson): Trees and power lines down blocking roadway
Belinda City, TN (Wilson): 60 mph wind gust

We do have the chance at more isolated storms to form, but coverage and intensity doesn't look as good today as it did yesterday. One or two could reach severe limits for a short time, but it doesn't look to be a big severe day at all. The heat will be the thing you notice more so.

Late Night Storms Rumbling Through

A nice cluster of storms that formed from an leftover outflow boundary in KY, has moved southward into and across portions of Middle TN. A wind gust to 71 mph was reported and numerous areas have reported trees and power lines down. I will have more on that tomorrow morning when all the reports will be in.

Until 9:45...a Severe T'storm Warning is in effect for portions of Cheatham, Williamson, and Dickson Counties. Winds approaching 70 mph are possible in that section of the line.

I expect the warning will expire on time and a new one not re-issued as the whole line looks to be weakening as it heads further southward.

Severe T'storm Watch: Eastern Middle TN/SCK

Isolated Strong Storm Threat Continues, So Does The Hot Weather

The past few days, we have seen storms pop-up...but not here. They have formed north of here in Central KY and move SSE into the Plateau regions of Middle TN. And I have no reason to think today will be any different.

The SPC does have the Rim and Plateau areas in a "See Text" zone and that means we do have a severe threat, but it is marginal at best. They say that storms will form over this region and track SSE into this area before losing some of its punch overnight.

For places that won't have the cloud cover and rain around (which will be many areas in Middle TN and SCK) you guys will still be in the pattern we are in. And just taking a look at the extended...looks like this hot, sunny weather will continue til at least next Sunday.

OHX Graphic

Hot Again; Isolated Strong to Severe Storm Chances N/NE Middle TN and SCK

Once again, we will see these heat indexes reach dangerously high in the 100ºF+ range and if you are out, make sure you drink plenty of water and find some shade and don't be out in the sun constantly.

For the people N/NE of Nashville, there is actually a weak system pushing through to our north and the fringe of it will clip this part of Middle TN and SCK. With the isolated storms that do pop, isolated hail and strong wind gusts could be possible. The SPC has us just in a "See Text" area, but we could see a slight risk be issued for this area if they think the threat will be more scattered then isolated.

Nonetheless, even with these slight storm chances, we still need to take the precautions I mentioned above as not everyone will see rain today. Only a 30% chance for the storm possible areas.

Heat Indexes 100ºF+= Uncomfortable Day and Weekend

Nothing says welcome to summer then a nice stretch of 95ºF days does it! And that is exactly what we are going to get. With these heat indexes reaching over 100ºF, if you are out today, make sure you have plenty of water with you and take the breaks that are needed.

Here in Macon County, this weekend is going to be the 34th Annual Hillbilly Day and the real action starts today at the event. If you are going to be out enjoying the games and booths, or working at a booth (like myself) make sure you have plenty of water and take breaks as much as possible. And if you wear light color clothes and shorts, that helps out a lot more then you would think.

This warm weather is going to stay in the forecast til at least Monday, then later next week we could see those high's dip back into the low 90's for Nashville and maybe even get a few upper 80's on the Plateau or Rim.

Nashville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF -105ºF
Clarksville: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Cookeville: mid 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF
Columbia: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 102ºF-105ºF
Manchester: mid to upper 90's; Heat Index, 101ºF-104ºF

PDS Severe T'storm Watch: Parts of SCK and Eastern Middle TN

A huge MCS is forming over in Northern KY at this time and is pushing SE into the watch region. The PDS I mentioned is just short for a Particularly Dangerous Situation watch. So this threat is one we really need to watch.

Possible Tornado in SCK Yesterday; Drying Out?

A big area of storms dropped down out of KY yesterday and once they right on the TN/KY line and came into TN...they became tornadic. In Trigg County, KY, a possible tornado touchdown took place in between the towns of Guthrie and Elkton. Funnel clouds were reported in the Cooperstown, TN and Jolten, TN areas too from these same complex of storms.

Today, the only areas under the gun for severe weather is the far eastern areas of Middle TN and SCK. I am only putting the rain chances at 30% for this region, so the odds of any one place seeing rain is at 30% while there is a 70% chance it won't rain in your backyard.

We keep this dry weather through here til at least Sunday, but with this dry weather comes the ridge of high pressure which will dominate over this region and bring with it uncomfortable heat. For the SE counties in Mid. TN, that heat starts today. Heat Indexes will be in the 100ºF-103ºF range today through Sunday and that is very dangerous if you are outside for far too long. If you have a pool...I would suggest using it today through Sunday!

Severe T'storm Watch: Northern and Central TN; Rest of SCK

Severe T'storm Watch: Parts of Middle TN and SCK

Updated Day 1 Outlook...30% Wind Potential

Storms are popping across TN/KY at this time. The SPC mentions that these storms should intensify and more should form. The NWS in Nashville has upped the rain chances to 50% over northern sections of Middle TN.

Yesterday's Storm Reports; Continued Severe Threat

Here is the map of yesterday's storm reports. You can see that the majority of the reports were in SCK and Northern Middle TN. Also, in Laurel County in SCK...a possible tornado could have touched down, but that has yet to be confirmed or not.

Once again, the SPC has many of us in the slight risk zone. The only areas of except are in the far SW corner in the Waynesboro/Savannah areas. The chance at storms today are only at 30-40%, but if we do get storms to fire along these leftover outflow boundaries, we could see them go severe so that is why we are in this zone even with our storm chances being so low.

The biggest threat for this region is going to be high winds yet again. The 30% wind profile is right on the Highland Rim/Cumberland Plateau line and the increase in elevation in these regions, will only help out the damaging wind potential.

Storms Pushing Through; Storm Reports Coming In

Right now the storms are pushing eastwards across the Cumberland Plateau and still producing a solid line of warnings ranging from a Tornado Warning in the Somerset, KY, area to Severe T'storm Warnings elsewhere. Once these storms pass through your region, you will be in the clear for the rest of the night. We could see some isolated showers/t'storms form later on tonight, but none are expected to get severe at all or get close to it.

A widespread area of wind and hail reports have come in, too many for me to list. If you pick a county in Middle TN/SCK...they probably have some form of wind damage. The strongest area seems to be in the Cross Plains area where they had one of their Fire Department's sustain some roof damage. But most of the damage reports is of trees and power lines down.

Severe T'storm Watch: Rest of Middle TN and SCK

Severe T'storm Watch: Parts of Middle TN and SCK

Big Wind Event Possible; Isolated Tornado Chances Too

As my blog title mentions, the biggest threat with today's complex systems will be widespread damaging winds. I mention widespread because if we get an MCS or even a derecho to form, that will cause a large area of damage over where ever it moves. The SPC has put areas from a Nashville to Manchester line, northward in the 30% wind zone. I think if we see a MDT risk come out in later outlooks...it will be for the 30% wind area which will include Middle TN and all of SCK.

I want to point out as well that we even have a small tornado chance with an cells that may pop-up out ahead of any MCS/MCV's that may form. The 5% tornado risk sits right on the TN/KY border. While it isn't a huge risk, we still need to watch this threat too.

Here is the lowdown on what the SPC is thinking for our region...

The morning MCS's are across areas just to our north and NW. The one to our north will miss us, but the one to our NW we will have to watch. This system will swing down into our region later this morning into the early afternoon hours. We will have plenty of instability to work with and this has the folks at SPC concerned that this area could at least maintain a strong MCS already, and could actually strenghten one.

They say the most likely areas that could see this MDT upgrade, would be the regions of the lower OH/TN Valley's to the Southern Appalachians. Which with that said...would be us here in SCK and across Middle TN.

And I would say with us not getting this morning MCS (missed us to the north like I mentioned above) we still have our instability, where as people north of us in KY and IL will have to get their instability back from this morning convection. So the upgrade to MDT, in my forecasting opinion, looks very possible for this region.

Tornado Watch: Parts of Western Middle TN

Supercells are popping up across MO and AR at this time and are moving into western TN. Many tornado warnings are out and this action will continue through 6 pm. All of this action is spreading eastward where the Severe T'storm Watch is still in play.

I expect the tornado threat to be much lower for us, but the damaging wind threat is still of interest to me.

Looking Ahead To Tomorrow's Risk

I know I shouldn't be looking ahead to tomorrow's risk while we are looking a a severe episode today, but I think this threat needs to monitored closely. I think we could see an event here much like what Memphis saw a couple days ago with widespread damaging wind event...possibly a derecho type event setting up.

Here is the just of what the SPC says...

At the start of the day 2 outlook, a healthy MCS is forecasted to be ongoing in the Ozarks region (MO area) and will be moving ESE and as it heads our way it is forecasted to strengthen or at least maintain its strength. SPC says that instability will be in place to allow for an ongoing widespread wind and hail event. They say once they get more model agreement on where the MCS will form...a MDT risk is very plausible.

The area you see in the 30% area, has the best chance at seeing the MDT risk. That is just my forecast and prediction.

Severe T'storm Watch: Much of Middle TN and Western Parts of SCK

Hail to 2.5" (baseball size) and thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph are all possible with the strongest storms.

Isolated, brief tornadoes are possible too, but hail and damaging winds will be the main threat.

Muggy, Unsettle Weather Today; As Well As Tomorrow

Today's Day 1 outlook covers a very broad area from just east of the Rocky Mountains all the way to the Atlantic coast of SC and NC. SCK and Northern Middle TN are on the fringe of the severe threat today, but I do believe all of Middle TN and SCK has the risk at severe weather today in the form of damaging winds and large hail.

Tuesday puts all of Middle TN and SCK in the risk and from reading the SPC's outlook, it looks like an overnight MCS will move through this region and cause an increase in the damaging wind threat for us. So I am going to be watching this very closely today and tonight to see if it will materialize or not.

Rain Chances Increase; So Does Severe Weather Potential

A large swath of rain is located to our west in Central AR moving into NW MS. A Severe T'storm Warning is out just to the west of Memphis at this time. This morning action will miss most of Middle TN, the far SW corner could see the main brunt of this core though. Behind the main force of the storms, is a large area of heavy to moderate rain which will hit our area this afternoon and early evening. This action could strenghten as it heads eastward too since we will be in the middle of our daytime heating and very unstable. The severe threat today is only isolated at best, but if you do get a rough storms. Expect winds upwards of 60 mph and hail the size of pennies to nickels.

Our severe chance increases for tomorrow and Tuesday, I will have more on that later. Today's rain chances are at 70% for all of Middle TN and SCK.

Storm Survey's SCK

...Damage Surveys Reveal 2 EF-1 Tornadoes...

Severe T'storm Watch: Southern Middle TN

Derecho is marching ESE and the northern most part of it will clip the southern sections of Middle TN. Damaging winds will be the main risk.

Severe Update: 6/12

This is the wind profile from the SPC Convective Outlook and, as you can tell, the 30% region is over a good chunk of Middle TN. The only areas left out of it are in Northern Mid. TN and the Plateau counties. A strong MCS (could be a defined a derecho as well) is marching across eastern AR at this hour and will affect areas, mainly in SW Middle TN later this evening. But all of Middle TN needs to be on the lookout for this as we are in a Slight risk. Where you see the 45% hatched area...that is a MDT risk zone.

The hail profiles is enhanced for this area too, but damaging winds will be the biggest risks no doubt.

Taking Day Off For Birthday!?...

Good morning everyone! It was a wild day yesterday indeed with many Severe T'storm Warnings and even a few Tornado Warnings across our region. There was widespread damage reports all across Eastern/SE Middle TN and even SCK yesterday associated with those warnings.

I was planning on taking today off from blog posting since I stayed up really late to watch that line come through, but then I saw today's severe outlook and thought it would be a disservice to you, my blog readers, if I didn't since we do have a slight risk of severe storms today.

The front is positioned right now over Nashville. So if you live anywhere N/NW of Nashville, you are more then likely in a NW wind and won't see much rain today. If you live S/SE of Nashville, that is where the greatest severe chances lie today.

You may be asking, "If places like Clarksville and Gallatin won't see much rain today, then why are they in the slight risk?" Well, tonight, we expect to see a large complex of storms to march eastward and increase our severe chances across all of Middle TN. The biggest risk with this complex will be damaging winds.

Severe Storms Update 6/11

One current warning in Middle TN. Severe T'storm Warning for Eastern Van Buren County. That same county was Tornado Warned 10 minutes ago but that cell has since left and gone into Bledsoe County in Morristown NWS's region.

The line looks like it is weakening as it makes its way south into Music City as there are no current warnings out. Even though no warnings are out, still expect winds upwards of 35 mph, very intense lightning, and heavy rains.

I will have more updates as they become necessary.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL COFFEE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... In effect til 10:45 pm **Warning has expired on time.**

Currently NO warnings in effect across Middle TN- 10:50 pm update

Tornado Watch: Most of Middle TN; SW Corner and Far Southern Section Excluded

A well developed line of strong to severe storms are moving ESE into our rich environment. We have really unstabilized again even after this morning's MCS.

Tornado Watch: SCK Til Midnight

And this action will come into Middle TN late tonight, so those in Northern Middle TN need to watch this closely too through this evening.

Severe T'storm Watch #374: All of Middle TN

Watch in effect til 2 pm. Storms will continue to increase in strength and coverage over the watch region.

MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Likely For Middle TN

Severe T'storm Warnings are already in effect for some western Middle TN counties at this hour and these storms are expected to only increase as they move NE into a more unstable air mass.

Severe Storms Forecasted Today...Unless Gulf Has Other Plans

This morning, there was some intense lightning that I witnessed here at my house and I would say areas just to my north in SCK got hammered pretty good. That action has moved off to the east so now we are dry over the Mid south, but there are a few iso-cells popping in southern Middle TN at this hour.

There is a pretty weak line of storms across Memphis at this hour and we are expecting that line to strengthen as it rides right up I-40 towards us. The biggest threat today is going to be damaging winds and large hail.

The SPC is mentioning the possibility at some Gulf moisture ruining our severe chances today. You can see that they have put areas as far south as Montgomery, AL in the slight risk and if they start getting storms to fire down that way...that could very well rob our southern gulf flow and make convection very minimum. So that is something I will keep an eye on today.

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight

Here is the text from Nashville's HWO update...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO...STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

For the ones in SCK, here is Louisville's HWO update...

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER TOWARD MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

Nonetheless, when and if the weather gets rough tonight, I will be sleeping very lightly tonight in case any watches or warnings are issued for our area.

Severe Storms Forecasted Today...And Tomorrow

It seems what I have been talking about for days is now among us. The SPC has put areas just north of the TN/AL border in a slight risk for severe storms today. I highlighted the damaging wind probs. as they are the highest. We could see a small cluster of storms fire up off to our west early this morning and strengthen as they move towards the east in our direction. The hail threat is also of concern while the tornado threat is only at 2% for areas in Northern Middle TN and SCK.

Thursday looks to be a rough day as well, the SPC has placed a 30% risk zone right over Middle TN and SCK which means that for Thursday, we will have the best chance at seeing the brunt of the severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats with the tornado chance being a small secondary threat.

MCS Forming For Us Late Tonight Into Early Tomorrow?

I want to clarify that this watch ISN'T for us. This Tornado Watch was issued just a short while ago for areas in MO and far SE KS. What I do want to point out is that these storms are expected to strengthen as the day goes on and move towards our area later tonight and early tomorrow morning.

As I posted this morning, we are in a slight risk for severe storms tomorrow too and the new updated outlook for Wednesday has this written for our area.

SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM ERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION...AS AT LEAST TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION/MCS SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

The reason I posted this portion of the text was for this simple fact. The SPC mentioned that here in the lower OH and TN Valley regions (that is us essentially) we would see an MCS move through our region during the Day One period. The Day One period they speak of is today's outlook.

So what I am thinking is that this action we see forming out in MO where the Tornado Watch is located, is what we are going to see form into an MCS for our region tonight and affect us early tomorrow.

Severe Risk Increasing Over Next Few Days

I have a lot to cover today, so I will jump right into it. This is today's outlook and the biggest risk is going to be in Central KS where a 15% hatched tornado risk is in place which is the best probabilities we have seen in quite a while. The Vortex 2 team is in great position to catch whatever supercell pops-up today.

Areas from Nashville westward are in a slight risk for severe storms today. The biggest risk is going to be large hail and some damaging wind gusts. But the overall severe storm potential is low as we are only forecasting a 20% chance of storms.

This is for Wednesday and this includes areas from Columbia/Lewisburg northward. Tomorrow, we have all three risks...large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The tornado risk isn't huge, but there is a possibility for us to see a tornado or two here in the Middle TN/SCK region.

Now...whew! I finally have reached the final outlook map from the SPC and we are, yet again, included in the slight risk zone. The tornado threat isn't as potent Thursday as it will be tomorrow, but the other risks are still in play. This threat included all of Middle TN and SCK.

SPC Day 3 Slight Risk; OHX's Take

As you can tell, the SPC has placed areas from Nashville northward and NW in the slight zone. On Wednesday, we are expecting pop-up type storms so any areas in and around this slight zone could see some some severe weather. The risks right now are for isolated severe hail and damaging winds. There is still some uncertainty if the CAP will break over are region. If it holds then we won't see much severe weather at all, but it still still iffy as to if that will happen.

Here is OHX's (NWS office in Nashville) take on this possible severe day...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE, INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

Day 3 Slight Risk: Far SE Middle TN

As the day goes on on Thursday, the SPC is thinking an evolving MCS could move across OK and AR and into west TN. Right now the confidence on this forecast is very small as there are many questions still in loom about how our atmosphere will be that day. But nonetheless, they have far SE Middle TN in this zone and we will continue to watch this threat as I do expect this outlook map to change a lot over the next two days.

Goshen County, WY Tornado...From Matt and Justin's View

Yesterday, a couple of Alabama chasers I know, Matt Grantham and Justin Hindman, caught great footage of this tornado. This just so happened to be Justin's first tornado and you can tell by his excitement in the video! The Weather Channel was on this storm as well and many of you probably have seen there coverage of this storm as they are traveling with the Vortex 2 research team. But here is video of this tornado from Matt and Justin's view.

Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1IdTQyG30g

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qouyXSBLeBs

Clearing and Drying Out Today; Dry Period Setting In?

We had a couple of counties report some flooding problems yesterday. Van Buren and Grundy counties had some road closures and detours. Also, in Van Buren County, a landslide took place on HWY 30.

But we got good news for today, the cold front has now made its slow move across us and now we will have a couple of days to dry out. I plan on getting out and enjoying the day...no matter how wet or soggy it may be! We will have plenty of sunshine to help in this drying process, but for some, it may take a few more days.

I'm not forecasting our next rain chance til early next week (Tuesday) and right now that chance is small at best.

Hope everyone has a great Friday!

Nashville: mid to upper 70's
Clarksville: mid to upper 70's
Cookeville: mid 70's
Columbia: mid to upper 70's
Manchester: mid 70's

Slow Moving Cold Front; Nice Rain Chances Today

Rain is occurring this morning across western sections of the Mid. state and will overspread the entire region later on this morning into the afternoon hours. We are not expecting severe weather, but a rumble or two of thunder surely looks possible. The threat today is going to be localized flooding where the stronger storms will just sit over one area and not move a whole lot. And that rain will be put on top of the rain some areas may have seen yesterday and on Tuesday, so that is why we think minor flooding could occur. Everyone, except the extreme NE corner, will be put at 100% chance of rain.

Nashville: mid 70's
Clarksville: low 70's
Cookeville: mid 70's
Columbia: mid 70's
Manchester: mid to upper 70's

*Flash Flood Warnings in Effect for White, Van Buren, and Grundy Counties until 5:45 pm*

Several roads have been flooded throughout Van Buren county this afternoon. If you are out tonight and you live around the SE corner or southern Plateau regions, be extremely careful as roads may be flooded in low lying areas.

No Warnings Right Now; More Iso-Cells Forming However

We are now going on an hour since our last warning was issued for SCK and Middle TN. You may think that means that our threat is over, but it isn't. New cells are forming across all of Middle TN right now. The three strongest cells are currently in Wayne, Lewis/Hickman, and White Counties. In KY, Barren, Allen, Monroe, and Metcalfe Counties are experiencing a strong storm as well.

Any of these storms could go severe at any time so be aware if you are planning on being out tonight. Also, with any of these storms that do form, heavy rain is likely and you could see some localized flash flooding. Remember that if you can't see the bottom of the road, don't drive through it.

Severe T'storm Watch #326: South Central KY

Trees down in Northern Allen County, KY
Large tree branches down in Barren County, KY
1.75" size hail (golf ball) fell in Overton County

MCD: Watch Possible SCK and Northern Middle TN

Updated Outlook: All of Middle TN Now Included

Here are the products.

2% tornado risk for Northern Middle TN and SCK

15% hail for whole region

15% wind for whole region (30% for far Northern Middle TN and SCK)

Slight Risk Zone: Northern and Eastern Middle TN and SCK

The SPC out of Norman, OK, has put areas from Nashville Northward/Eastward/and some Westward in a slight risk for severe storms later today. The greatest risk is going to be damaging winds, but large hail is also a big risk while the tornado threat looks minimal, but is still a threat nonetheless.

We saw some interesting storms yesterday afternoon. All reports that I have heard about around our area was hail reports, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few trees are down that just wasn't called or e-mailed in. We will see more of that action today and even though southern sections of Middle TN aren't in the slight zone, that doesn't mean you won't see strong storms.

Nashville: upper 80's; 60% chance
Clarksville: upper 80's; 60% chance
Cookeville: upper 80's; 60% chance
Columbia: upper 80's: 50% chance
Manchester: upper 80's to low 90's; 50% chance

Starting Early; Two Hail Reports With More Severe Reports Yet To Come

Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Old Hickory: Davidson County
Nickel size hail (.88") has been reported in Hendersonville: Sumner County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Centerville: Hickman County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Hohenwald: Lewis County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Columbia: Maury County
Nickel size hail (.88") has been reported in Nashville: Davidson County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported close to Kingston Springs: Williamson County
Penny size hail (.75") has been reported in Springfield, also small tree limbs down: Roberston County

I fully expect more severe weather reports later on as the afternoon has just begun and more storms are beginning to pop.

Very Isolated Severe Storm Chance Today; Better Chances Tomorrow and Thursday

Yesterday, we saw some interesting weather occur across southern Middle TN and along the Cumberland Plateau. The only significant reports we received was from the Columbia area where hail and strong, damaging winds were reported. Hail the size of quarters and winds in the 70 mph range occurred and brought down trees very close to downtown Columbia.

Today, we will see much of the same, but I believe we all will have a chance at seeing an isolated severe storm pop. Now the chance of you seeing rain is very small (10% chance). This is going to be an event that a mile or two down the road is going to make a difference. If you do get under one of these stronger storms. You should be aware that you might very well see some hail (anywhere from pea to possibly quarter size) and gusty winds (60-70 mph inthe strongest of storms possible). Lightning will also be present, like always, so just be aware of that.

Nashville: low 90's; 10% chance
Clarksville: low 90's; 10% chance
Cookeville: upper 80's to low 90's; 10% chance
Columbia: low 90's; 10-15% chance
Manchester: low 90's: 10-15% chance

Severe Storms Across Southern Middle TN

First Air Quality Alert of 2009

...CODE ORANGE ALERT ISSUED FOR THE NASHVILLE AREA FOR MONDAY...

THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION HAS ISSUED A CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY FOR AIR QUALITY IN THE NASHVILLE AREA FOR MONDAY. THE CODE ORANGE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED LEVELS OF OZONE. POLLUTANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UNHEALTHY RANGE FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.THE TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION RECOMMENDS THAT ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS, AND PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASE SUCH AS ASTHMA, LIMIT PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXERTION.

The counties in this alert are: ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-CANNON