This is the outlook for Saturday and you can really see the wide range of severe storm potential from this one setup. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see some areas in the 45% go to MDT by tonight's updated outlook, or they move that risk up a few areas. The timing of this storm arrival is really what is up in the air. Some have it here and gone by lunchtime tomorrow, while some have the risk for scattered storms all day. I'm leaning more to an mid-afternoon threat and then we will see clearing late Saturday, but that could very easily change as we see today's model runs.
Many of you may be wondering about today and tonight. Well for today, we will have some scatter showers/t'storms around today, but severe weather isn't expected. The same scenario is forecasted, but the arrival of it has slowed down and that is why we think mid-day Saturday is when we will most likely see the strong to severe storms.
I will have an update later on today and will try to pin-point actually what areas may see what severe weather, and how much rain we may see too.