5:43 update: Line continues to weaken as it moves off to the east. Strong winds around 45-50 mph can still be witnessed in the line, but the severe winds look to be gone for all of Middle TN and South Central KY. Some wind damage was reported in Nashville where over 4800 are without power.
When these storms begin to fire up and around the Ozarks region, I believe they will form into a squall line type system that will have embedded stronger cells in it causing some damaging winds. This won't be a widespread event, but areas (especially west of I-65) need to watch this system closely today and then in all areas of Middle TN and South Central KY need to watch during the overnight hours. But I believe since it will hit us during the overnight into early morning hours, I don't see it being all that strong. But a few isolated areas could see some wind gust causing some damage.
The SPC has put areas in Central Middle and western Middle TN in a Slight Risk zone for severe thunderstorms. The threat with these storms will again be large hail and damaging wind gust. The lift in the atmosphere won't be as potent with this system, so the tornadic potential should be pretty low with this event.
This morning, the SPC has taken areas north of I-40 out of the Slight risk region of this system and placed a small MDT risk for areas in Southern AL. I want to point out that just because the SPC has us out of the risk area, doesn't mean we won't see severe weather north or east of I-40. I will even go out to say that if we end up seeing more sun then first thought, we could very well be put back into the Slight region.
This is the SPC's outlook for today and you can tell that all of Middle TN is included except for the Cumberland Plateau residence. With this threat today, large hail is the main risk with any of these storms with the tornado risk down south into AR and MS where it is even low their. Damaging winds are possible tonight, but the bigger risk for that will be tomorrow when the actual front comes through.
This outlook is for Day 2 and it shows the areas missed in today's outlook into this one. The main risk with this day will be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either. But on this day too, the tornadic risk will be further south into Central and Southern AL. I will continue to monitor this event today and will possibly post an update tonight if time permits.
* Link to area storm reports: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/lsr/index.php
With today's threat you can clearly see that the wind is what we will have to worry most about. And even this morning ahead of the system we are seeing wind gust in the 30-35 mph range and those numbers could go up as the squall line gets closer.
Here's the tornado risk and as you can tell it is rather low like I thought it has been since we started tracking this system a couple days ago. But with a 5% risk area we need to keep a close watch on this system cause an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out with this squall line passing through at around the lunchtime hour for Nashville. The current squall line is back into Memphis and has died down quite a bit, but we do expect this line to strengthen as it moves are way later on today.
This image speaks for itself. This is the newest radar view from the Oklahoma City radar view by weatherunderground and you can clearly see 4 different supercells that are tornado warned. The thing you can not see though is that these supercells are all training in the same path. The town of Edmond, OK has already been hit by a tornado from the first of these supercells and have more on the way. This is an unbelieveable radar shot and way for these storms to do. Hope everyone stays safe as it will be a long night for them with many Tornado Watches already in the Midwest region...
This is the new outlook posted by the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK; for our region for this significant threat. I expect the SPC to upgrade the areas you see in the 45% risk area (that includes all of Middle TN and SCK areas) to a Moderate risk for the damaging wind risk. I expect this event to be one that will bring a widespread wind event for many areas in Middle TN and SCK come Weds. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out, but the wind risk is the biggest threat and looks to be the biggest threat with this system. The line of storms look to come through at around the lunchtime hour tomorrow and should be out of the region by 7 p.m. for all areas. I will keep you guys posted on this threat and will have a new updated map come tonight.
Here's my forecasted SPC Convective Outlook map for the Weds. system. As you can tell from my map, I think most of Middle TN and South Central KY will be in the moderate risk areas (maybe excluding some of the eastern counties on or close to the Plateau) for the risk of strong, damaging winds. From reading the updated looks at OHX, they are saying that we could see wind gust as high as 45 mph in the pre-arrival of the front. With 45 mph winds at the surface ahead of the front, when we get these strong storms to move in, the winds wouldn't have to go up too much to cause damage. Over on http://www.nashvillewx.com you can see the post that Davis Nolan did concerning this wind potential. 
Well here we go folks, it looks like around the Weds. time frame we are expecting some strong to severe storms with damaging winds being the primary threat, but isolated tornado development can't be ruled out either. For here the main concern is of a frontal squall line event bringing with it 60+ mph winds. But if we get more time to destabilize and to stay in the warm sector longer...we could see pre-frontal (storms ahead of the squall) storm development and those tend to have the better chance to spawn tornadoes. I will be monitoring this threat all day long today and will have more tonight. This is a threat that you need to take with caution. I'm not expecting anything near the magnitude of Feb. 5th, but this is a threat that needs to be watched closely for everyone in Middle TN/South Central KY.
This is the SPC's Day 4 outlook and this just shows you how much uncertainty they, and most people involved in the meteorological field, have with this system. They have the risk for severe storms all the way north to the Great Lakes region stretching downward to the Gulf Coast region of AL and MS. As of right now the main threat here in Middle TN and South Central KY looks to be a strong squall line type event with the possibility of some embedded rotating segments in that line that could put down a brief tornado or two. Matt, Fred, and I will continue to give you the latest on this risk as more data comes out and we get a better understanding on how this event might unfold.
As you can tell, many people showed up to the event to learn more about severe weather and how to better protect themselves and their loved ones too in time of bad weather.
This image is a close-up of Lisa Spencer after the event. She joked with a few of us that many people get her confused with Jennifer Herron who does the traffic reports for Channel 4. :)
This image was taken by the OHX storm survey team in the Scottsville Rd./Ackersville Rd. area. Directly to the left of where this image was taken, is where the Zion Missionary Baptist Church stood. It has now been built back thanks to all the donations givin from everyone! If you also notice in the far back right, you will see what looks to be a bus. That bus is of my church where we went to help out one of our fellow members clean-up their house which was heavily damaged with both sides of the house taken away.
This is the SPC Convective Outlook map that I will use again very often with our severe storms this year, much like did last year. Right now, the risk looks to stay mainly north of Middle TN and South Central KY...but if the low placement shifts any further south, we are right back in the biggest risk area for severe storms. Again, this threat is still 6+ days out, but it still needs to be monitored and that is what Fred, Matt, and I will continue to do.
This is the seismic chart I have put on this blog before and this is an updated look at the current activity at the volcano. I have been tracking this thing for several days now and not once have I seen red lines appear on this map. If anyone knows why this is detecting red lines now, please leave a comment or e-mail me at charlesloring_2010@hotmail.com. I would greatly appreciate it. Here is the most recent report form a geologist their at Mt. Redoubt.Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. Seismic activity remains elevated and
is well above background levels. Clear web camera images from this morning show
no activity at the volcano.
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