Music City Bowl Forecast

Here's my MCB forecast, if any of you are going to the game like I will be...you may want to wear an extra layer of clothing cause the Wind Chills will be brutally be cold.

And if you aren't going to the game or anywhere as of that matter, staying at home with the heat on sounds like a great idea! After yesterday's 50-60º day, today will be quite the opposite and not welcomed.

Lunchtime Forecast 11/30; Mid-January Artic Blast w/ Snow?

Before I get to the exciting part, I must get to today's forecast. For today expect mostly sunny skies until we reach our sunset, then expect a clear night with your low getting to around 33ºF-29ºF depending upon where you are located.

The models have been hinting for a while that we here in Middle TN and South Central KY, as well as places even south of here, could get a good snowstorm anywhere during the 9th through the 14th of this month. The models have frigid air entering our region from the NW and with that comes moisture too. This system is still over 10 days out and anything can change (and more then likely will). Even this morning some of the models have backtracked on the cold and the amount of moisture a bit, but we are still cold enough and have enough moisture to squeeze out a good event. This will be, like always, a nail bitter till the end!

Blog Poll Results: White Christmas Witnesses

" Have You Ever Witnessed A White Christmas?"


Yes
5 (71%)

No
1 (14%)

Can't Remember Either Way
1 (14%)

After have been away from blog posting a couple days, I'll be back tomorrow morning posting about the mid-January Artic spell we may encounter! That'd be a great welcome to the new year for you snowlovers...not so much for the snow haters though.

Severe Risk Update: Damaging Winds Main Threat

As you can tell, the SPC has moved the biggest threat to the NE a good bit. That move to the NE is big for us and here's why. The bigger dynamics of this system will be moving off to the NE all day today. With that shift to the NE, when the suspected squall line moves through our region, the tornadic threat we will have (which is small to begin with) will begin to move off to the NE as it moves eastward. With that said, the biggest risk of severe weather (TOR and WIND combined) is going to be places around the TN River area, while the areas with less chance are on the Plateau areas around Crossville. Either way you look at it, we could see some warnings and possibly a Tornado Watch issued for our area later on this evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. But like the title says, the biggest threat will be damaging winds.

Nashville: low to mid 70's
Clarksville: low to mid 70's
Cookeville: upper 60's
Columbia: low to mid 70's
Manchester: upper 60's to low 70's

Saturday/Sunday 11/27-11/28 Severe Threat

Here's the SPC's Convective Outlook of this weekends potential severe day. Here is a list of things that I think you may see here in Middle TN and South Central KY from this system.

*- Squall Line (this is my thinking) will arrive during the early morning hours on Sunday.
*- Any broken cells in front of the approaching line, will have the potential to "spin up" an isolated tornado.
*- Main threat with this system as a whole will be damaging winds, mainly when the squall line passes through your area.
*- Areas of my highest concern are located around the TN River areas (Dover, Paris, Camden, and Hopkinsville, KY etc.) Where the SPC has the 15% risk area outlined in blue in the map above.

I will have an update on these in my morning post tomorrow.

Merry Christmas! Saturday Severe Threat

HO HO HO! Well, I'm not Santa Claus, but if I was; this TN weather would be like Caribbean weather to me. Even if we don't have snow on the ground like the penguin family in the picture above has, I hope you are having a very Merry Christmas today anyway. The weather couldn't be any more right for a day like today. Yes the temps. could be a little warmer, but God has blessed us with a wonderful weather day with no rain or weather worries around.

*Tomorrow I will post a map showing the severe weather potential for Saturday into Sunday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with that event to what we could see and how bad it could get. Right now MY current thinking is that it will be more of a damaging wind threat with an isolated tornado threat with any stronger storms.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Christmas Eve Forecast

Well, the time has come yet again. I've always been told that when you get older, time goes by much faster. Well I'm only 16 years old and time is going by faster then ever, if it was to go any faster...I might miss Christmas from here on out! But anyway, if you are traveling here in the Mid State for the holidays, it will be a wet go for you, especially if you are in Western Middle TN and Western KY. The temps. today could reach the 60º mark, but the real weather story is the wind. The OHX office is saying we could have wind gust as high as 50 mph today, and that isn't with the storm winds we could see today. There's a small risk of some severe weather in western parts of Middle TN today, and the biggest threat would be damaging winds. Hope everyone has a safe, Christmas Holiday!

*I will be doing a post tomorrow...it might be a mid-day post, but I will do one on Christmas Day!

Frigid TN Day; Coldest Morning Since 1993

WOW! When and if you manage to go outside this morning, you will be rudely introduced to this cold, arctic air that has been here for almost a day total now. Here's a list of some of the early morning readings and their WCV's.

7ºF, WC: -2ºF- Clarksville, TN
9ºF, WC: -2ºF- Shelbyville, TN
7ºF, WC: -5ºF- Hopkinsville, KY
5ºF, WC: -6ºF- Cookeville, TN
7ºF, WC: -2ºF- Bowling Green, KY
14ºF, WC: 4ºF- Waynesboro, TN

And this cold weather is going to stick around today as well just like it did yesterday. Our high will only reach 26ºF in Nashville while many areas will see readings between 21ºF-25ºF. But lucky our temp. will rise overnight tonight a little and we will see those temps. reach the 40's tomorrow...but we also have a freezing rain/sleet chance tonight as well, but that risk is slight and it won't amount to much at all.

Out The Door Forecast Headlines: 12/21

Wind Chill Advisories may be needed tonight for us. We haven't been in a WCA for a few years now, so this cold weather will take us all by surprise.

Wet and Windy December 19th, 2008

This is the Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook posted by OHX this morning. Along with the rain, we are experiencing some very windy conditions with gust as high as 35 mph in some places. This rain and wind will be around for much of the day and our temps. will be falling throughout the day as well, but the lowest I see it getting to is the low 50's for everyone.

Blog Poll Results: Winter Excitement!!??

" Which Winter Event Excites You Most?"


Snowstorm
5 (55%)

Icestorm
2 (22%)

No Winter Storm
2 (22%)

Wet Weather Moves In; Stormier Weather For Friday?

This morning areas all across Middle TN and South Central KY are in a Dense Fog Advisory, and if you where to go outside this morning, you'd see why. Places west of here around the Paris and Martin areas, they are in a Freezing Fog Advisory. Then, if you travel NW ward up to around Hopkinsville and Madisonville, KY; they are in a Freezing Rain Advisory this morning. So these weather events are all around us today, just as they have been all week.

Today, we will see a S/SE wind pick up and in return that will boost our temperatures up close to 50ºF today. Then tomorrow comes the real fun, we will see the S/SE wind pick up (Gust as high as 30 mph are expected) and with that S/SE wind, our moisture intake will grow and so will our atmospheric instability. I'm not expecting severe weather, but one or two stronger storms with gusty winds can't be ruled out.

Nashville: upper 40's (isolated low 50's); 20% chance of afternoon showers
Clarksville: upper 40's; 20% chance of afternoon showers
Cookeville: low 50's
Columbia: low 50's; 30% chance of afternoon showers
Manchester: low to mid 50's; 30% chance of afternoon showers

Icy Threat Turns Into Reality

This morning as you go out and about, people to the north and NW of Nashville are dealing with a wintry start to their day. The NWS at around 11:00 last night made the choice to cancel the Ice Storm Warning and replace those areas with Winter Storm Warnings (which in my book both are bad, but since the amount of precip. we received didn't reach ISW criteria...they "downgraded" the warnings for that region which I completely agree with.) And last night once I was gone to bed, the NWS added some counties to my east on the Rim and Plateau into the Freezing Rain Advisory. Their are numerous school systems closed to my north and west (including ME!) and since theirs a good bit, I can't make a map of the closings and delayes. You can find the Middle TN and South Central KY school closings at http://www.wkrn.com/ .

SPC's Mesoscale Discussion...Winter Style!

SHOWERS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOULD CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD...PERHAPS INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.15/3-HR PERIOD.

It's not too many times that you see the SPC issue a MSD during a winter event. Normally you would see these issued for a NE or Upper Plains snowstorm, but even to them this storm would be a pain in the neck.

Icy Mess 11/15-11/16

For the counties you see in purple, an ICE STORM WARNING has been issued for your region. The TN counties in the warning include, Robertson, Montgomery, Stewart, Dickson, Houston, Cheatham, and Humphreyes Counties.

The light blue is for a Freezing Rain Advisory issued for these Middle TN residents...Perry, Lewis, Hickman, Williamson, Davidson, Maury, Wilson, Sumner, Trousdale, and Macon Counties.

* I tried to find a map of South Central KY I could use, but to no luck. So too tell you guys. The NWS office has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the following counties... Logan, Warren, Simpson, Allen, Barren, and Metcalfe Counties.

They have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Monroe County, KY.

* This event, for some, will start at around the noon time hour with our temperature dropping dramatically throughout the day. So with that being said, schools will more then likely start dismissing early out to the west of here and could impact the Nashville commute. Right now the chance doesn't look likely for it too since the interstates will be a good bit above freezing...but if the system was to speed up the we could be looking at afternoon problems.

Icy Potential Monday Night Across N/NW Middle TN

This chart is from the HPC telling us what the chances are of seeing ice accumulation. Areas in the 10% (Slight risk) include: Portland, Ashland City, and Scottsville, KY. Areas in the 40% (Moderate risk) include: Clarksville, Dyersburg, and Hopkinsville, KY. The NWS in Louisville has issued a WSW (Winter Storm Watch) for their DMA due to this impending event. And so has the NWS office from Paducah.

Just for a heads-up. The models have been trending southward with this system the past couple of days, and if that trend continues...Nashville could be in the mix of this system as well. It will be a situation that we, Fred, Matt, and I will monitor til the ice threat passes Tuesday mid-day.

Snowfall Amounts: 12/11 + 12/12

If you want to post your snowfall totals in the comment sections, you are more then welcome too. Here are a couple of reports that I have heard of.

1.5"- Cookeville, TN
.8"- Southeast Nashville
1"- Nashville International Airport
3"- SW Marshall County, TN
2-3"- Columbia, TN
2.5"- Smyrna, TN
1"- Lascassas, TN
.75"- Franklin, TN
.5"- Gamaliel, KY
Trace- Hendersonville, TN
2"- Thompson's Station, TN
1"- Shelbyville, TN
2"- Waynesboro, TN
1.5"- Brentwood, TN
3"- Lebanon, TN
.5"- Westmoreland (My report)

Tonight's Winter Episode: 12/11

I won't be posting an accumulation map for this event, cause it looks like most areas won't see any accumulation at all from this event and the places where the accumulation is possible, would be on the Plateau and SE sections of Middle TN and I'm only expecting an 1" at most for those areas. The Huntsville NWS office issued a Winter Weather Advisory our for their area earlier this morning for the possibility of 1-3" for them...which I see likely for them, but not for us. So with this event...MS and AL will get the snow, while we just get the cold rains. Here's my snowfall predictions.

West Tennessee: Little or No Snow At All

Nashville Basin: Light Snow Flying

Highland Rim: Light Snow, accumulation (dusting to 1/2") possible on eastern areas of Rim (Cookeville, Livingston, Sparta)

Cumberland Plateau: Light to Moderate Snow, accumulation likely (1/2" to 1") in all areas (Crossville, Jamestown, Byrdstown, and areas down towards Monteagle and Sewanee)

Tonight and Thursday's Snow Chance

As the rain pushes eastward out of our region. We will see a drying period from here on out. The highest rainfall total reported in this morning that I can see, is from Southern Humphreys and Dickson Counties where 3.83" and 3.82" of rain was reported. The Flood Watch that I mentioned last night should expire here in a shortly, but just because the Watch expires, doesn't mean that their aren't areas in your region that are flooded. Just extra caution today while driving to work or school this morning. Pickett, Overton, and Fentress Counties are in a Flash Flood Warning til 6 a.m. this morning.

And as the title says, tonight and tomorrow we have the chance at some wintry precipitation here in Middle TN and South Central KY. My current thinking is that it won't be much at all, but some places could see a dusting to a half and inch. And most likely place is in SE TN and on the Plateau where most of the moisture will be. For tonight the NWS office in Louisville is calling for the chance at freezing rain tonight for those areas. While Nashville is saying that we have a snow chance tonight, but our temps. should stay above freezing so I don't expect much in the way of travel problems come tomorrow morning. The temps. will be dropping all day today, so if you think it is cold this morning...it will just get colder as the day wears on. Have a great Weds.!

Middle TN Flood Watch: 12/9

The NWS office in Nashville has just issued a Flood Watch for all of Middle TN tonight due to the excessive amount of rain we have gotten and will continue to get well into the morning hours of Wednesday. A Flood Watch is issued when current forecasts show the potential of area floodings in any given spot due to heavy, prescient rain. Most areas tonight will see any extra 1-2" of rain not counting what you got this morning and afternoon. The watch is in effect til 6 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Windy and Wet Tuesday

And with that wind whipping around today, the NWS in Louisville has issued a Wind Advisory for places in South Central KY and I would expect Nashville to issue one for us here in Middle TN shortly due to these gusty, hazardous winds. If you are out driving today, please use extreme caution with the wind and rain all about. Even with the rain in our forecast. I'm forecasting a high in Nashville of 61ºF and that is only the second time we have seen temps. in the 60's here for a good while. (The past 60º day was on Thanksgiving.) It looks like that most of the really stormier weather will stay to our south and south west, but I can't rule out an isolated storm or two when the line moves through our region. Fred, Matt, and I will monitor the situation closely here at the Highland Rim Station. Have a good Tuesday everyone!

Warmer Monday; Wetter and Stormier Mid-Week

This morning you will wake up to lows below freezing, but not in the teens like we have seen the previous nights. We will have a light south wind (5-10 mph) that will help boost the temps. into the low to mid 50's for most folks, but a few areas could stay in the upper 40's for a high today. And with this south wind prevailing, this will ripen our moisture for the stormier activity that will sweep through our region on Tuesday and Weds. At this point it looks like most of our severe weather will be to our south, but a few embedded storms could form here and have the potential to have gusty, damaging winds with them. But I'm not forecasting a widespread event by any means.

Nashville: mid 50's
Clarksville: mid 50's
Cookeville: low to mid 50's
Columbia: mid 50's
Manchester: low to mid 50's

Blog Results: Beginning TN/KY Winter Snow

" How Much Snow Have You Gotten Thus Far? "
A Light Dusting
3 (20%)

A Couple Snow Events (No Accum.)
2 (13%)

One Snow Event (No Accum.)
4 (26%)

None
3 (20%)

What is Snow?
3 (20%)

Overnight Rain Pushing Out...Cold Air Pushes In

As the overnight rain pushes out of the Mid-South region, we shouldn't see a big warm up from what this morning is. Today will be a lot like Tuesday was with the steady high's staying in the 30's, but without the rain/ snow hanging around all day. Now the leftover moisture on the Rim and Plateau could change over the light snow showers this morning, but it won't last all day and none of it will stick with everyone's temps. in the mid to upper 30's. We reached our high temp. last night before the heavy rain with the cold front arrived.

Nashville: upper 30's
Clarksville: mid to upper 30's
Cookeville: mid 30's
Columbia: mid to upper 30's
Manchester: mid to upper 30's

Cold Night; Quick Warm-Up!

After many kids enjoyed their day off....(sorry to those who weren't), we looked poised to have a warm day tomorrow. But before that, let us get the cold out of the way, and I said COLD!!!

For tomorrow, our area can expect highs in the Upper 50's to 60's!! This is due to a 15-30 m.p.h. south wind getting pumped into area. I wouldn't be surprised to hear if we have a Lake Wind Advisory, or High Wind Warning placed on us tomorrow. If we are, and if you plan on spending the day on a lake with the warmer temps. wear a LIFE JACKET!!!!! Those winds can cause rough chop on Lakes and cause smaller vessels to capsize!

By late Wednesday night, we'll have a line of showers push in to the Mid-State, via another cold front. You can expect some moderate rain and a few embeded thunderstorms...not expecting ANY severe weather out of the stronger cells.

After the front moves through, kiss the warm-up, bye-bye. Area highs Thursday will only be in the 40's!!
HAVE A GOOD NIGHT!!

Rim and Plateau's Icy Commute

Due to the icy start, some of the Northern and Eastern counties have decided to close or delay the start of school. We had some surprise snow last evening that left another good coating of snow on the deck and road this time. With the current temps. in Middle TN ranging from the low 30's to the low 20's, the roads will take some time to clear, but the skies are clearing out so when that sun rises in the east...the temperatures will bounce back pretty well and we should see area temps. be in the 40's with no snow or sleet or rain around and a south wind pushing the temps. up. So for tomorrow all area schools should go as planned and on schedule.

Nashville: mid 40's
Clarksville: mid to upper 40's
Cookeville: low to mid 40's
Columbia: mid 40's
Manchester: low to mid 40's

UPDATE: Clay, Jackson, Trousdale, Overton, and Pickett counties changed from 2 hour delays to closed. And Fentress has changed from 1 hour delay to closed.

SCHOOL CLOSINGS

Well I can say it...that was a flop! We didn't receive the once expected wintery wonderland that we came to wish for...oh well the winter season is still young.....On another note..happy December 1st!!

SCHOOL CLOSINGS

Winter Weather System; Dec. 1st

As you can tell, you more then likely didn't get any accumulation from last night's event, but tonight the places on the Rim and Plateau have another shot at accumulation before this system pulls out late Monday evening for them. And with the snow and mix coming tonight as well...our temps. won't be a problem this time. I'm forecasting the Rim and Plateau lows to range anywhere from 24ºF-28ºF so the sticking will be more prone in these areas. For many others in Middle TN your low should reach the freezing mark tonight, but most of the moisture will be on the Plateau and Rim so your accumualtion amounts should be limited.

* The school closing are becoming to numerous for me to keep up with. So if you want to check to see if you are out, go to WKRN.com and click on their link for school closings.