My Observation at Mt. Redoubt (AK)

After looking over this, I have found this observation that I haven't seen mentioned. If you notice when the spikes start on this seismic graph (at top), they are relatively small and don't last a long amount of time, but as we hit the other spikes along the graph they grow in intensity and last for a longer amount of time. And in between all of these spikes are breaks or quit periods, but they don't last very long and the next spike comes back stronger. If that is of any trend or of relevance...I think Redoubt is about to blow.

Ground Hogs Day Snowstorm?

Are we in for a great rise or what! On Monday we expect a low to form somewhere down along the coast, this low placement and movement is key for our snow here in Middle TN. If this low was to track closer to the coast, we may miss out on most of the precip. And if the low was to pass to far westward, we'd see mostly rain. So we really need the low to track like the NWS office has it on the map above for us to get a good snowstorm (3-5+"). This is going to be a great system to track and keep up to date with!

Blog Poll Results: TN Icestorm

"Do You Think We Will Have An Icestorm Monday Night?"


Yes (Many places in Middle TN)
6 (31%)

No
6 (31%)

Maybe (Only people I-40 Northward)
7 (36%)

Thanks to all for voting. That was the highest total number of votes I have had since starting this blog early last year. A new one will be up here in a bit.

1" of Snow Here, Pictures Below

This image shows you the sharp temperature drop we had in just a little under an hour period. We went from 32.8ºF at 4 this morning, down to 27.2º at 9:45.

This one is of the snow coming down on top of the freezing rain and sleet we had before (image below) and it accumulated to 1". That will be one of the highest totals reported in from this system I believe.

This from the same view, but at an earlier time as the ground is just now getting white with sleet. This sleet accumulation made for icy roads, which we still have here in Macon County, and has made for hazardous driving. All of this moisture has pushed off to our E and SE, but we shouldn't see temps. get above freezing here or in many places today in Middle TN and South Central KY, the areas who have the best chance are in S and SW areas of Middle TN.

Snowy Commute?

It looks like the snow could hit Nashville around the 8-9 time frame which is right around rush hour so if you are out and about...please use extreme caution. This snow will are talking about will stick around for maybe and hour to an hour and a half and then it is out of here, but the reason it will accumulate like we think it will is due to the rate it will be falling. This will be classified as HEAVY SNOW.

Home Ice Pictures

From this image you can see that the pine tree is sagging a bit and that the tree in front has a good deal of ice on it. The ground is also has a nice white tint to it and it is very crunchy! Sorry for the image being a bit dark.

This image is from the tree you see in the first image that is really white. The ice covered this tree pretty good and this is where I determined that we had .25" of ice.

Most areas in Middle TN are seeing rain this morning and just plain rain. Some areas, especially in Northern and NW Middle TN, may be seeing some sleet or freezing rain mixed in, but you can expect that action to back off at around the 9 o'clock time frame more then likely.

For tonight you may of heard about the snow chance, well that chance looks pretty good at this point. I will make my only call map for that event later on today.

Ice Threat Update

This Nashville's Outlook. Here are some cities and what they may see in relation to your area.

Clarksville, TN: .5"-1" possible ice accumulation

Murray, KY: .5"- 1" possible ice accumulation

Erin, TN: .25"-.5" possible ice accumulation

Centerville, TN: Trace-.10" possible ice accumulation

Dickson, TN: .10"-.25" possible ice accumulation

Nashville, TN: .10"-.25" possible ice accumulation

Springfield, TN: .25"-.5" possible ice accumulation

Gallatin, TN: .25"-.5" possible ice accumulation

Watertown, TN: Trace-.10" possible ice accumulation

Carthage, TN: Trace-.10" possible ice accumulation

Lafayette, TN: .10"-.25" possible ice accumulation

2nd Call Map: 1/26-1/27 Ice Threat

Also, OXH has issued some warnings and advisories this morning.

Ice Storm Warnings: Stewart, Montgomery, Roberston, Sumner, Houston, and Benton

Freezing Rain Advisory: Macon, Humphreys, Dickson, Cheatham, Davidson, Wilson, and Trousdale

OHX has mentioned the possibility of shifting the Freezing Rain Advisories S and E, so people in the Williamson, Rutherford, and Putnam Counties, to name a few, need to keep a close watch on this system too, even though you aren't in an advisory or warning.

First Call Map: 1/26-1/27 Ice Threat

Ice Storm Update

South-central Kentucky: Mainly a sleet and freezing rain mixture. Ice accumulations of around 0.25" will be possible, with possibly some rain mixing in at times on Tuesday near the Tennessee border.
Although there is increasing confidence in this winter storm, any slight change in the track will impact precipitation type and amounts.

Once OHX issues a Graphical WX Outlook, I will post it too. For areas north of I-40, we need to keep a close watch on this situation as it looks to hit us head-on. Fred, Matt, and I will be watching this system closely and I will post an Ice precip. map later on tonight with also my own update at that time.

Louisville's Take On Monday Night's System

Here's is their Graphical Hazardous WX Outlook for this upcoming system. If things were to pan out as they are looking right now at the moment, this could be a crippling system for areas north of Nashville so we need and will keep close tabs on this system here at THRS and we will give you the latest updates and changes as needed.

Blog Poll Results: 1/19-1/20 Snow Event

"How Much Snow Did You Get From The 1/19-1/20 Event?"


1"+
2 (25%)

.5"+
2 (25%)

Dusting to .5"
0 (0%)

None (Just Flakes)
4 (50%)

50ºF Afternoon...YEAH!!!

For us here in Middle TN and South Central KY, it looks like winter will take a backseat spot for a little while anyway for today and tomorrow. Today many areas will reach into the low to mid 50's with maybe a few isolated places on the Northern Plateau not getting out of the upper 40's but those look to be few and far between. We will be under mostly sunny skies over all of the region today, but tomorrow we will see our temps. stay relatively the same, but we do issue a slight rain chance for areas south and SE of Nashville. The chance at rain is small, but you can assume that the cloud cover will be around no matter what. Hope everyone has a great Thursday!

Nashville: mid 50's
Clarksville: mid 50's
Cookeville: low to mid 50's
Columbia: mid 50s
Manchester: low to mid 50's

TN School Closings/Delays Map: 1/22

Most of the remaining ice on the roads ways should melt tomorrow with highs expecting to reach close to the 50ºF on the Rim and Plateau...

Morning Flurries; Afternoon Sun?

Before I get to today's forecast, there are some Middle TN and South Central KY school closings due to yesterday's snow. You can find the area school closings/delays here on www.nashvillewx.com and in the top right is the school closings bus you click on to get that information.

Well after yesterday's nice snow event (well nice for some), we won't see any form of snow like that for today or this morning rather. The areas with the best chance at flurries is Western sections of Middle TN, but don't expect it to accumulate at all.

After this early morning flurry action, we could very well see the clouds break up from west to east this afternoon. But even with the cloud breaks, I'm not forecasting anyone's high to reach above freezing for today just like yesterday we didn't get above freezing all day long. Hope everyone has a good Tuesday watching the Inauguration or just enjoying the day!

Nashville: low 30's; Morning Flurries
Clarksville: upper 20's to low 30's; Morning Flurries
Cookeville: mid to upper 20's
Columbia: low 30's; Morning Flurries
Manchester: upper 20's to low 30's

My Snow Pictures: 1/19 Event

This one is from my front porch looking out into my neighbor's yard. You can clearly tell that that the roads, for the most part, are just wet at this time and I think they will stay just wet overall.

This one is of the pine tree in my backyard with the snow cover on it. If you are wondering what that black thing is in the background, that would be the family dog...CoCo. He loves snow over any form of weather...not the best fan of rain though.So you can tell he is a Tennessee dog weather wise!

Snow is still currently falling here at a good clip. I can safely say that we have over a 1/2" right now and some areas in Northern Middle TN and South Central KY could get an inch.

*If you want to see your snow pictures on this site. Just send them my way at charlesloring_2010@hotmail.com and I will br happy to post them on here. If you don't mind, when you send the pictures, could you please tell me where you are from and how much snow you have gotten...thanks!

Winter Weather Advisory Out For Northern Plateau People

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE
TN
756 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
.A COLD FRONT
HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST
SECTION OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON.

PICKETT-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
756 AM CST MON JAN 19
2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST
THIS
AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A
WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST
THIS
AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
ABOUT
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THESE
SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
$$
JLM

MLK Day Snow!!!

This is the current/up to minute radar view from intellicast.com. And as you can see, snow is filling in over most of the Northern Middle TN and South Central KY counties. We here in western Macon County have a good dusting and we are working on getting a 1/2"! All of this moisture is moving off to the ESE and will continue its ever so slow southward dive as the front is moving over our region today dropping our temps all day long. If you have any weather reports you want to add. You can add your snowfall reports in the comment section! Have a great MLK Day!

Highland Rim SnowTrac Map: 1/18-1/19

Most areas will see snow fly starting tonight and going into tomorrow, but the main areas where accumulation will be possible is areas in extreme NE Middle TN and KY.

Updated School Closings/Delays: 1/16

Here's the updated school closings map and delays. The two TN counties delayed are Wayne and Giles which will open 2 hours late. And the one KY county reporting being closed is Edmonson County.

If you don't have to be outside today...DON'T.

School Closings/Delays: 1/16

As you can tell most of the counties east of and including Davidson County are closed tomorrow. The only county that still hasn't officially reported being closed for Friday is White County, but I do expect them to close later on tonight. The county you see in yellow is Wayne County and they will open 2 hours late tomorrow due to the inclement cold.

Darn Canadian Air!!!!

Well it's true!!!!! The air mass about to move into the mid-state will bring FRIGID, ARCTIC temperatures to Middle Tennessee....and boy it will be COLD!!! Computer Model Forecasts continue to indicate an upper level disturbance sweep through our area in the form of a cold front moving through Late tonight, early morning tomorrow.

As of now, all indications are we will have the coldest temperatures that the state has seen in years!! If you scroll down to see Charles's Temperature list for the area that will give you some idea.

HighlandRimTNWx Forecast

Tonight:
Cloudy
Lows around 14
Slight Chance of Flurries
Winds SW at 5-10 m.p.h.

Thursday Morning:
Sunny
Noticeably Colder
HIGHS AROUND 19!!!!

Thursday Night:
Clear
LOWS AROUND -1 DEGREES!!!!! (LOWER IN SOME SPOTS!!!)

HAVE A WARM Night!!! Don't forget to vote in the new blog poll!!!!

Brutally Frigid Air Enters Our Region Tonight through Saturday Morning

If you are a Middle TN and South Central KY resident, I'm pretty sure you have heard about this frigid, ARTIC air that will be in our neck of the woods for tonight through early Saturday. Here are some of the forecasted lows for Thursday night:

Fort Campbell, KY: 3ºF Wind Chill Advisory in effect
Bowling Green, KY: 5ºF
Glasgow, KY: 4ºF
Clarksville, TN: -2ºF
Gallatin, TN: -1ºF
Livingston, TN: -2ºF
Watertown, TN: -1ºF
Nashville, TN: 0ºF
Waverly, TN: -1ºF
Waynesboro, TN: 0ºF
Columbia, TN: 0ºF
Tullahoma, TN: 0ºF

So if you get what this chart is saying, it is saying that more then likely everyone here in Middle TN/South Central KY will see temps. right at or just below 0ºF...that is extremely cold and dangerous weather. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some county school systems close Friday due to this rare cold snap.

Bitter Cold on the Way!!!

It was a day that started off rather cloudy in most areas, due to a band of mixed precipitation that swept through the northern part of the mid-state, accumulation wise it didn't amount to much. Clouds and fog burned off by 10:00 o'clock, but some mid level cumulus clouds stayed in place throughout the day, but for the most part it was a good day. But the temperatures were VERY noticeable. Area temperatures stayed in the mid-to-lower 30's for the day. If you think that is nippy, haha, you haven't seen anything yet!!

Short Range Forecast Models appear to indicate a disturbance move through our area tomorrow in the form of a cold front that will drop our temperatures substantially and even get us a shot of seeing some flurries flying, though I don't expect much in the way of accumulation, maybe a light dusting on the Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau.
HighlandRimTNWx Forecast
Tonight:
Mostly Clear
Lows around 20
Southwest Winds around 5-10 M.p.h.
(W.C. in the Teens)

Tomorrow:
Mostly Cloudy
Highs in the mid 40's

Wednesday Night:
Mostly Cloudy, then Becoming Partly Cloudy
Low around 16
Chance of Flurries

Have a Good Safe Night!!!!!

Highland Rim SnowTrac Final Call Map: 11/13

Here's my final call map on this system. Chances have decreased a good bit from this morning. My thinking is...BRING ON SEVERE SEASON!

The Highland Rim SnowTrac Map: 11/13 System

I will do a new one tonight after I review the new data outlook and see where to go from there. But from everything being said this morning, I feel this is a good chance at what may happen. Areas N/NE of Nashville will have the best chance at accumulation while areas south of I-40 the potential isn't as high.

Monday Night's Accumulating Snow Chance!!!

Here is BNA's take on the potential Monday night snow dance wish. This snow chance will be associated with a clipper type system again and will hopefully affect some of us this go around. Right now the NWS is thinking that areas on the Highland Rim and the Cumberland Plateau will see minor accumulations of around an inch or more. Places N of Nashville say around Portland and possibly Springfield, could see up to an 1/2" of snow. If you live south of the infamous Winter I-40 corridor...you will be out of luck once again. You guys could very well see snow fly, but the accumulation chances will stay mainly off to your N/NW.

Even with the snow chances looming, the main talk you will have with your peers at work or school this week will be about all the cold air it will bring into the region. From an example, in Nashville this week, it could very well fall below freezing for a high on both Thursday and Friday with another shot of cold air from the NW...snow chances do exist with that, but I won't mention that threat in detail until we are closer to that timeframe.

Titans vs. Ravens Forecast

Blog Poll Results: TN/KY Snowstorm Wish

"Do You Believe We Will See a Nice TN/KY Snowstorm During The Month of January"


Yes
11 (100%)

No
0 (0%)

That was a pretty lopsided poll I must say. In fact it does look like we will see a shot of frigid artic air the middle of next week, but the noly question...like always...is that will we have the moisture to accompany it? I guess we will all find out once it occurs.

Chilly Day Today; "Warmer" Day Tomorrow

After last night's non-winter event, tonight we shouldn't see much in the way of clouds even, so that should let our temp. fall down into the low 20's for almost everyone in SCK and Middle TN tonight. The area lows will range from 26 in southern TN, to 22 in northern and eastern Mid. TN.

Tomorrow, many areas, especially in western Middle TN, could see there highs get out of the 40's for the first time in a good while...but the relief won't last long. Cause next week we have the chance at more wintry weather and COLD temps. So this wild TN and KY weather looks to throw out more surprises along the way.

Winter Weather Advisory For Eastern Middle TN

Blogger is having trouble posting images for me this evening, but I think I can do a blog post without images for one event, but it would be nice to have! Anyway, here is a list of counties in eastern Middle TN that could see up to 2" of snow tonight...CLAY-PICKETT-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-VAN BUREN. I do think that 2" is a reach with this begin a clipper system, but if you do end up with some luck with 2-3 snow burst, 2" can't be ruled out. Here is what I think the rest of us will see from this.

Hopkinsville, KY and Erin, TN areas: No action
Centerville, TN and Lawerenceburg, TN areas: No action
Lynchburg, TN and Lewisburg, TN areas: No action
Woodbury, TN and Murfressboro, TN areas: Flurries
Gallatin, TN and Bowling Green, KY areas: Snow showers; Dusting to 1/2" possible...1" in spots can't be discounted

Flooding Rains Moving Out; Flurries Around Tomorrow Morning?

Since I didn't have room in the weatherunderground map to mention this, places down towards Chattanooga are having the trouble of flooding conditions right now with many area roads closed. Some of those school systems down that way are going to be closing or opening late due to the flooding risk tomorrow. Some of Middle TN's SE counties could see some some delays or closings, but that will more then likely be determined tomorrow morning.

Temporary Blog Posting Change

Since I started school back yesterday, I will start doing my blog posting in the afternoon instead of the morning until I get my schedule all back into shape. Just a few notes:

* Last night Western portions of Middle TN where in a Winter Weather Advisory for the icy potential. I don't know how much places around Clarksville and Dover got, but if you do have any reports on the conditions from last night, you can leave a post in the comment section cause it would be really appreciated.

1/4 Overnight Weather

This is the map I made on the weatherunderground site about the cold front passage.

After this mornings strong t'storms for us here on the Rim and Plateau, we should see a clearing trend tonight, but a few isolated showers can't be ruled out for anyone. The lows tonight will vary in the mid 30's with some areas getting close to the freezing mark, but the majority of you will stay above freezing.

January 9th-12th Winter System Update

Here's accuweather's 10 Day Snowfall map and with any map 10 days out, you have to take it with a grain of salt. But from this map the most likely places to see the best chance at accumulating snows, would be in the Northern and Eastern sections of Middle TN. This is still a system that we need to keep a close watch on since it has been on the models for a good 3-4 days now.

Mid-January Winter Update: January 9th-12th System

This map is for the time frame around January 12th with the snow cover and this map has had all of Middle TN and South Central KY in some area of snow for quite some time now. Here's the snowfall amounts we would see during this time if this map would verify.

Clarksville, TN and Hopkinsville, KY areas: 2.5"-3"
Gallatin, TN and Bowling Green, KY areas: 2"-3"
Cookeville, TN and Jamestown, TN areas: 2.5"-3.5"
Murfessboro, TN and Manchester, TN areas: 1.5"-2"
Centerville, TN and Decaturville, TN areas: 1.5"-2"
Waynesboro, TN and Lawrenceburg, TN areas: 1"-1.5"
Shelbyville, TN and Winchester, TN areas: 1"-1.5"

But remember that this event is over 10 days away and will change before it arrives and it could change for the better or for the worse. It is all speculation thus far, but that is what makes weather forecasting fun and challenging. It's a wait and see deal for us Tennesseans and Kentuckians, like always!

Happy New Year as well from Matt, Fred, and I to all of our blog readers!