Severe T'storm Watch: Middle TN and South Central KY

5:43 update: Line continues to weaken as it moves off to the east. Strong winds around 45-50 mph can still be witnessed in the line, but the severe winds look to be gone for all of Middle TN and South Central KY. Some wind damage was reported in Nashville where over 4800 are without power.

6:32 update: Severe T'storm Watch cancelled, wind damage reports are still few and far, but I do think more could be reported in as the sun begins to rise.

Slight Risk of Storms in Western Middle TN Today; Spreading Eastward Overnight

When these storms begin to fire up and around the Ozarks region, I believe they will form into a squall line type system that will have embedded stronger cells in it causing some damaging winds. This won't be a widespread event, but areas (especially west of I-65) need to watch this system closely today and then in all areas of Middle TN and South Central KY need to watch during the overnight hours. But I believe since it will hit us during the overnight into early morning hours, I don't see it being all that strong. But a few isolated areas could see some wind gust causing some damage.

Tomorrow almost all of the mid state is in a Slight Risk, but I won't mention that til tomorrow morning as I am focusing on today's threat right now...

Blog Poll Results: Late Season Snowstorm; New Blog Idea...Need Comments

"Do You See A Late Winter Storm Coming Through Our Region?"

Yes
5 (38%)

No
8 (61%)

What is Winter?
0 (0%)

I would like feedback on a new idea I have floating around in my mind. I would like to know if you guys would like me to start asking weather questions in place of the polls, or would you rather me keep the polls as they are?

Warmer Day; Stormy Thursday and Friday

Today, you can expect much warmer temps, but we do have the chance at a few isolated showers across all of the mid state, but mainly in areas in western Middle TN have the best chance at seeing one of these pass through. Tonight we keep the clouds and showery activity around, so tonight our low won't bottom out as bad as it could be for the end of February (44ºF in Nashville tonight).

The SPC has put areas in Central Middle and western Middle TN in a Slight Risk zone for severe thunderstorms. The threat with these storms will again be large hail and damaging wind gust. The lift in the atmosphere won't be as potent with this system, so the tornadic potential should be pretty low with this event.

Chilly Start To Work Week

After a morning start in the upper teens to low 20's in a lot of places, we really won't feel a good warm-up today with high's getting to 36ºF in Nashville. At least today we won't have those unbearable winds adding the brutal wind chills in the teens all day like yesterday. We do see a light rain chance enter the region tomorrow, but it looks small at best and many areas won't see a shower pass by. But with that said, that isn't the only rain chance we have this week. Come Thursday and Friday we will have some heavy rain around with thunder also being possible. Severe weather isn't expected at this time, but we will keep you updated if it does become a threat.

Nashville: mid 30's
Clarksville: mid 30's
Cookeville: low to mid 30's
Columbia: mid to upper 30's
Manchester: mid to upper 30's

Rain Maker in Region Today; Changeover to Snow Later This Afternoon

Roller Coaster Weather, Weekend Light Snow Potential

If any of you are like me, I really am tired of this up and down temp swings we are seeing. I'm one who likes it warm for a long period or cold for a long period with no real breaks in between (severe and snow chances included!). And speaking of turning events, it looks like Saturday evening we could see some light snow fall behind a clipper system that will affect our area at the time. But with most clipper systems, this one doesn't look to bring much in accumulation with wet surfaces and marginal freezing temps in place. With the way TN weather is though, we will keep a close watch to this one for any changes that become necessary.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Today; Big Severe South of Here

This morning, the SPC has taken areas north of I-40 out of the Slight risk region of this system and placed a small MDT risk for areas in Southern AL. I want to point out that just because the SPC has us out of the risk area, doesn't mean we won't see severe weather north or east of I-40. I will even go out to say that if we end up seeing more sun then first thought, we could very well be put back into the Slight region.

If you are to get a t'storm to form over you, you can expect a lot of lightning and possibly some hail and damaging wind gust, but the main risk would be hail. And due to the isolated nature of this severe ability for us, I do not see us getting into a Watch at all today. Now for people in Southern AL...that's a whole different story where they have a tornado chance too.

Nashville: low to mid 60's
Clarksville: low to mid 60's
Cookeville: low 60's
Columbia: mid 60's
Manchester: low to mid 60's

Severe Storms Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

This is the SPC's outlook for today and you can tell that all of Middle TN is included except for the Cumberland Plateau residence. With this threat today, large hail is the main risk with any of these storms with the tornado risk down south into AR and MS where it is even low their. Damaging winds are possible tonight, but the bigger risk for that will be tomorrow when the actual front comes through.

This outlook is for Day 2 and it shows the areas missed in today's outlook into this one. The main risk with this day will be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either. But on this day too, the tornadic risk will be further south into Central and Southern AL. I will continue to monitor this event today and will possibly post an update tonight if time permits.

Blog Poll Results: SKYWARN Poll

Will you attend a SKYWARN class this year?

Yes
4 (50%)

No
0 (0%)

Maybe
0 (0%)

What is SKYWARN?
4 (50%)

SKYWARN is an association, associated with the NWS offices around the US as well as around the world that report in localized and area wide storm reports to the necessary office in their area. The local NWS offices put up a page specifically for storm spotters (which is what SKYWARN's population is made of) and they go to different areas each year to get more people certified. Here's the link to that page that is updated when they get new classes made. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/spotter.php

*Sorry about lack of posting. I was gone to Memphis this weekend and forgot to tell Fred or Matt that and to see if they could do the blogging. But things should be back on schedule tomorrow morning.