Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Today Across TN Valley

Many of us are waking up to a good sounding rain outside with not much thunder present at all. This morning rain should begin to decrease in coverage as we head into the late morning hours as a dry slot will begin to work its way into our region. With this occurrence, we will see more atmospheric destabilization and that is why the SPC has Middle TN and SCK in a Slight risk of storms today.

The main risks with the strongest of storms will be damaging winds and large hail, but an isolated tornado or two can't be completely ruled out either...but that threat is low at this point. When I get home from church at around noon, I will have a blog update if necessary.

Sunday's Severe; Thunder Over Louisville

That's right guys, we have yet another severe risk for our region and this one looks to affect us Sunday afternoon and evening. We could see some storms move into our western most regions tonight, but they won't have the potential to reach severe criteria.

The strongest storms, for Sunday, will have the potential at damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat is pretty low with this system as the shear doesn't look to be all that strong. Actually, this whole event looks pretty weak, but since their is an outlooked region...we still need to follow it closely.

* There will be another kind of loud booming going on in Louisville tonight. It's called "Thunder Over Louisville" and it is the largest fireworks display in the US annually and is also an event with one of the biggest air shows too. Over 650,000 people attend this event and I hope to one day as it sounds like a pretty cool event.

Just to tell you how many fireworks will be sent off...over 52 tons! And it will be in a 30 minute timeframe.

Ryan Hoke, who is one of my good friends from Louisville and wants to become an OCM too, has written about this event on his blog http://www.ryanweather.blogspot.com/ and you all should check it out!

Finally...Some Sun! 70's Tomorrow!

After being stuck under the clouds all day yesterday, and some not getting out of the 40's, we should see those clouds break up today as that High pressure system moves eastward and takes those clouds with it. With the departure of these clouds, we should see our temps. rise into the mid to upper 60's (western sections of Middle TN could reach the 70ºF mark) with sunshine for all.

Tomorrow, many will see those thermometers reach the 70º mark by afternoon.

But, we do see a shower/t'shower chance come back into the region late Saturday into your Sunday. This round does not look to produce any severe weather, but remember that if you see lightning or hear thunder...move indoors.

Nashville: Clouds clearing; 67ºF
Clarksville: Sunny; 69ºF
Cookeville: Clouds clearing late; 64ºF
Columbia: Clouds clearing; 67ºF
Manchester: Clouds clearing; 66ºF

Tornado Fatality Numbers by States: Tennessee Ranks #1

I ran across this story while visiting nashvillewx.com and found these numbers to be scary and a problem that needs to be fixed. http://www.wkrn.com/global/story.asp?s=10183698

The SPC has a slight risk of severe storms all across Middle TN today, but the biggest threat will be large hail. As you can see, they have placed areas from Nashville northward in a 30% wind threat while the rest of Middle TN is in the 15% risk. Also, damaging winds is a threat as is a isolated tornado or two too with our temps. getting up to 70ºF and DP's well into the 50's. Now, if we do see more sunshine today then expected, then our risk will go up that much more. The best time for us to see these storms will be from late morning (noon) through the mid-afternoon hours in eastern sections (7-8 pm). Good thing is, after we get this system out of here...we should be dry for the rest of the week.

A lot of Catching Up To Do! OHX Storm Surveys

Good day to all our blog readers. Even though I missed blogging Friday's event, I was keeping a close watch on it all day and was doing a lot of stormtracking. Of course, the Murfreesboro tornado was rated the highest (EF-3), but that is just an preliminary rating as it could very well be upgraded to EF-4 later on. Here's a list of other TN tornado ratings.

...EF1 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CONFIRMED IN SUMNER COUNTY...

Location: 8 miles SW of Portland
Intensity: EF-1 (100 mph winds)
Damage: 3 FRAME HOMES AND A MOBILE HOME SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE ALONG CREEKMORE ROAD. NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.

...NWS CONFIRMS EF-1 TORNADO DAMAGE IN BENTON COUNTY...

Location: 6-10.5 miles NE of Camden
Intensity: EF-1 (100 mph winds)
Damage: MUCH OF THE DAMAGE WAS ALONG AND NEAR GRAPEVINE AND HARMON DOCK ROADS. MANY HUNDREDS OF LARGE HARDWOOD TREES AND PINE TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG THE DAMAGE PATH. TEN HOMES SUFFERED ROOF DAMAGE AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED.

...PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM A SECOND TORNADO IN RUTHERFORD COUNTY...

Location: 8-10 miles SE of Murfressboro
Intensity: EF-1 (100 mph winds)
Damage: 4 HOMES WERE DAMAGED ALONG WITH A BARN...AND SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.

*I will have more on the first Murfressboro tornado once the report is done.

Severe Weather Possible Later This Afternoon

As Charles has mentioned the past couple of days....Tennessee could experience some severe weather. As of right now the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Mid-South including TN, KY NC, SC, MS, AL, and Georgia in a "Slight Risk" of Severe Weather. With that there is a secondary risk area...a higher "Moderate Risk" area. That includes Middle and Eastern Tennessee. The highest threat we are expecting is LARGE DAMAGING Hail. up to 2" in diameter. Damaging Winds are also likely. With our favorable shear and expected moist atmosphere later today.. Supercells with Tornadoes are possible as well.

Continue to monitor NOAA Weather Radio and Local Media Outlets for the Latest Severe Weather Information.

I will post periodically throughout the day as the situation unfolds.

Severe Storms Likely Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening

The SPC has placed many areas of Middle TN under the 30% hatched region, excluding the western Middle TN counties. The SKEW-T soundings have been down right scary bringing in huge instability values for us and with all that said, Friday is going to have to be a weather alert day. I except us to get put into a Watch (most likely Tornado) sometime tomorrow around noon. The action should begin to fire after the 1 pm time frame and even some models have it out of Nashville by 7-8 pm. So we may have a 5-6 hour window where discrete iso-cells could form and a few of those could reach supercell status where all thre severe elements could be possible. I will say that the highest threat looks to be damaging hail with some reaching close to 2" in size.

I won't be here til Sunday afternoon, but I will ask Matt or Fred if they could give our blog readers the latest on this threat.

Same Pattern...Same Severe Chances

Here we go again! Yet another severe chance looks to impact our region on Friday and this one is "more potent" then any we have seen thus far, in my opinion. The SPC is thinking all three forms of severe weather could occur Friday across our area...hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

I will say that since this event is still two days away, the models can change, but each hour we get closer to the event the less time it has time to change its course. I won't be here from Thursday night into Sunday morning (going to a church youth group convention in Nashville). But I will try to get either Fred or Matt to blog post in my place, since we are looking at the potential for severe storms.

Winter Weather Advisory Issued for Northern Highland Rim and Plateau Counties

The NWS office out of Nashville, has issued a WWA for the following counties: MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-DEKALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND

1-2" snow accumulation could be very possible in these areas once you arise tomorrow morning. Some slick spots on the area roads could occur as well, especially in the overnight and early morning hours. If you are adjacent to one of the counties mentioned in the WWA, you may see accumulation up to an inch. But the higher amounts are going to be on the Plateau regions or where the WWA is issued for. But we have seen time and time again that even when they issue these advisories...we could very well not see anything anywhere. So I will be here giving you the latest information on this wintry situation.