Tornado Watch #119: All of Middle TN and Portions of South Central KY

***All of Middle TN is now included in this watch.***

Tornado Watch #117: Portions of Northern Middle TN and South Central KY

SPC is thinking that storms will begin to fire out ahead of the front, and some of them could gain supercell structure and potential. There are already some warnings out in MO and far western TN. So we will watch this closely and a new watch may very well be added for the counties not included in this one, especially the counties on the TN/KY border...

Slight Risk Today; Damaging Winds and Large Hail Main Risks

We are expecting some "iso-cells" to pop-up put ahead of the cold front later on today and into the evening hours. It is possible that some of these iso-cells could form into low-topped supercells and have the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even an outside chance of an isolated tornado. The time frame we are expecting this action is from 4 pm in western Middle TN through 9 pm in far eastern Middle TN. The action should begin to die down after the sun sets and we lose a lot of our surface heating...

Another Severe Chance; Light Snow Chance Too?

The SPC is thinking there will be two areas of concern for severe weather Sunday. The first is for the Deep South areas, while the other area is up into the Northern Middle TN areas and SCK. They are forecasting a broken line of low-topped supercells will make there eastward march through this region and will have the potential at large hail, damaging wind gusts, as well as an isolated, brief tornado or two in the stronger storms.

Behind this cold front will be some very cold air. I'm thinking we could have two nights of below freezing temps. and on the first night...some snow may be in the air across areas of the Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau. I'm not expecting accumulating snow by any means, just enough to give you that last winter feel. So with all this said, if you have plants you have already planted...make sure you cover them up on both Monday night and Tuesday night.

EF-1 Tornado Confirmed in Nashville

Here's the link to the findings, pictures and damage map is shown...http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/ss040209_davidson.php

Rainfall Totals From Thursday and Thursday Night; Storm Survey Today

These are the radar estimates of rainfall totals and here's a few rain totals.

Cookeville: 1"
Glasgow, KY: 2.5"-3"
Nashville: 2"-2.5"
Ashland City: 1"
Franklin, TN: 3"-3.5"
Dover: 1.5"-2"
Lafayette: 2"-2.5"

All this rain is now out of our region, and we should be rain or storm free til at least Sunday where another cold front will push through here. Severe weather looks low at this point for us, but the models have had the low pressure center up around Southern IL and if that comes to happen...we will be in the heart of severe weather. So we will continue to watch that too. But we will also get out and enjoy these next couple of sunny days!

*Nashville's NWS team will conduct a storm survey of the damage done in the Murfressboro Rd. areas in Donelson some time today. We will find exactly how strong this tornado might be. From looking at damage...I'm think at least EF-1 and could be rated a weak EF-2.

Tornado Watch #112: All of Middle TN Included

The probabilities that the SPC put with there watches are pretty big for this watch. There is a

• 60% chance of at least 2 tornadoes; 40% chance of at least one of them being strong (EF-2 to EF-5)
• 60% chance of wind damage
• 60% chance of severe hail

Those all reach moderate severe category for the SPC out of Norman, OK.

Tornado Watch 107 (Much of Middle TN); New Tornado Watch for Eastern Middle TN Likely

The areas who weren't issued in the first watch, will be included in this upcoming watch no doubt. A tornado was reported close to the Nashville International Airport earlier this afternoon and damage is being shown on the news stations in this region around the Murfreesboro Rd. areas in the Donelson community. That is the only damage reports I have heard thus far, but flooding is also a big concern. Areas all around Middle TN have experienced heavy rain and flooding is occurring in southern and western sections of Middle TN.

After this rain passes you, you could see the clouds break up a bit, but...there is more severe action back in AR and MS where they are under a Severe T'storm Watch and that same moisture will affect us in about 2-3 hours.

MDT Risk for Southeast Middle TN; Slight Risk Elsewhere

The SPC has issued this outlook for today and you can tell that they are thinking big event. While most of the risk is south of us, I do see us being hit with some supercell potential (especially south of I-40), but then an intense squall line will move through during the late evening into overnight hours which will bring with it widespread wind potential. We do have an isolated tornado threat in both the squall line and with any supercells that may form, but I believe that the wind and hail threat is the main risk, at this time. I will give you guys an afternoon update when I get home from school and we could very well see the MDT risk bumped up into our region, if a High risk is issued for parts of eastern MS/ western AL.

Severe Storm Chances Tomorrow

The SPC has issued a very large MDT risk area over parts of GA, FL, MS, AL, LA, and Western TN. With the latest model outputs...most of the severe weather will stay south of our area, but as you can see, we are still in a slight risk and if the SPC is going to go high tomorrow...we could see the MDT risk border Nashville and areas southward. We will keep you informed on the latest as this could be almost the exact same setup as Saturday evenings severe episode.