Slight Risk of Strong to Severe Storms Thursday

The SPC has issued a large area of the SE in a Slight risk of severe weather for Thursday. They have the 30% probabilities right on the Nashville line southward into AL and GA. While this event is still two days away, we are going to have to watch it closely as we are now beginning to enter our peak severe weather months where we are more primed to see severe weather. And Saturday's event shows us that we don't necessarily need all the ingredients to come together to at least see a small tornado spin-up. We will keep a close watch on this and give you any updates as they come along.

*The Nashville NWS office made a correction on the Murfressboro tornado. They rated it EF-0, but it actually was suppose to be rated EF-1. So they have made the correction and all three Middle TN tornadoes on Saturday were EF-1's.

*Our very own Matt Brawner went storm chasing Saturday in the Gallatin area where he caught some great images. I will post those images this afternoon once I get home from school.

Murfressboro and Huntland Tornado Ratings

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY TN...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE INCURRED ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE HAS BEEN COMPLETED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.INITIAL FINDINGS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
* EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
* EVENT DATE: 03/28/09
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
* PRELIMINARY RATING: EF-1
* PATH LENGTH: 1.5 MILES
* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 60 YARDS
* SUMMARY: NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED WITH SEVERAL CEDAR TRUNKS UPROOTED ALONG A LINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...BETWEEN HUNTLAND AND MAXWELL. IN ADDITION...SHINGLES AND ROOF PANELS WERE PEELED BACK TO A HOME AND A BARN ALONG STRATTON ROAD AND PLEASANT RIDGE ROAD NEAR BRANCHVILLE.
THESE FINDINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT.PICTURES AND SUMMARY MATERIALS WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBPAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE /ALL LOWER CASE/.SURVEYED BY: COYNE/NADLER
Murfressboro, TN Tornado Rated; EF-0

THE TORNADO IN MURFREESBORO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR SCOTT STREET AND CAUSED SOME DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES THERE...AND CONTINUED ACROSS BROAD STREET WHERE IT CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO SHOPS IN THE JACKSON HEIGHTS MALL. THE TORNADO ALSO CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGE TO THE BOYS AND GIRLS CLUB LOCATED ON JONES BOULEVARD. NUMEROUS TREES AND MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED TO HOMES NORTH OF LOKEY AVENUE...AND THERE WAS SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES ON MEMORIAL BOULEVARD NEAR CLARK BOULEVARD. THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF THE TORNADO WAS JUST OVER A MILE...AND THE WIDTH WAS ABOUT 50 YARDS.

EF-1 Tornado Confirmed in Cheatham County

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1101 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009...

EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CONFIRMED IN CHEATHAM COUNTY...

AN ASSESSMENT TEAM CONSISTING OF NWS PERSONNEL SURVEYED DAMAGE TODAY IN CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTY. THE TEAM DETERMINED THAT AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DAMAGE.THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN WAS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 249, 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHLAND CITY, AND CONTINUED FOR 5 MILES ALONG HIGHWAY 249 TO JUST NORTH OF MOUNT ZION. THE INITIAL DAMAGE PATH WAS 50 YARDS WIDE AND INCREASED TO AROUND 100 YARDS WIDE.NUMEROUS HARDWOOD TREES WERE EITHER SNAPPED OFF OR WERE COMPLETELY UPROOTED. 1 MODULAR HOME WAS DESTROYED AND 3 OTHER HOMES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED.

Storm Reports: Ashland City and Huntland Tornado?

This is the storm reports page done by the SPC in relay of the reports the NWS offices get in. In TN, you see 2 red dots. Those red dots indicate where a funnel cloud could of touched down and be classified as a tornado. The NWS office in Nashville will conduct the possible Ashland City twister, while the office in Huntsville, AL will conduct the storm survey in Huntland.

I think the SPC made a good decision on issuing a Tornado Watch for our immediate region. The SPC criteria for a tornado watch to verify, you need at least 3 tornado reports that are confirmed. Well, on the chart above in the watch they issued for most of Middle TN and points southward and NW, there were 5 different tornado reports in all. So if these tornado reports are confirmed by the local NWS offices...the watch verified.

It was a very bust day for the local NWS offices. It started in Paducah's region with a Severe T'storm Warning from the first, of many, supercells to form. Then Nashville came in next with a Severe T'storm Warning for Benton and Stewart Counties. Not long after that, Paducah then issued the first Tornado Warning of the evening. It was back and forth for the Nashville and Paducah offices on issuing warnings, until those warnings pushed out of the Paducah region, then Louisville started to get in on the fun. Then as the supercells started pushing further eastward, they started to form a line in which case the tornadic production would be cut down. As that line started to form, the offices in Huntsville and Birmingham had there own supercells to deal with. Only one tornado report came out of AL and that was in the NE part of the state almost into GA.

So all in all there were a total of 6 regional offices that had to issue at least one tornado warning last night. (Paducah, Nashville, Louisville, Huntsville, Birmingham, and Peachtree City)

***If you have any storm pictures for yesterday evening. I'd love to see them and post them on here! All you have to do is send them to my e-mail at charlesloring_2010@hotmail.com and post your name, where you took this image at, and what you are seeing.***

MSD: Tornado Watch Likely

The SPC is saying a Tornado Watch will be likely for us in about an hour or so. I will be here all day following this and giving you guys the latest!

Severe Update: 3/28/09

This is the latest satellite image and you can clearly see where the skies are breaking up. The Nashville NWS office just put out a Short Term outlook and states that if we get the clouds to break up and the sun comes out...that could further destabilize our atmosphere and up our severe chances a bit. OHX is thinking the storms will arrive into western Middle TN by 12-2 pm and Nashville by 4 pm.

Here are some current conditions around Middle TN.

Nashville: 60ºF/56º DP
Clarksville: 57ºF/57º DP
Cookeville: 57ºF/55º DP
Columbia: 58ºF/57ºDP
Manchester: 59ºF/58ºDP

Severe Saturday?

Here's the text portion of this outlook for our regions here in SCK and Middle TN (I think we have more of a severe threat now then does Northern AL and Northern MS...)

...TN/OH VLYS... A SEPARATE AREA OF SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH VLYS DURING THE AFTN/EVE.
STRONGEST DCVA WILL TRANSLATE NEWD AWAY FROM THE RICH GULF MOISTURE
SOURCE FARTHER SE. BUT...LINGERING 50S SFC DEW POINTS ARCING BACK
ALONG THE CDFNT/SFC LOW INTO THE LWR OH VLY BENEATH STEEP
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J PER KG. EXPECT THAT SCTD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY INTENSIFY FROM PARTS OF WRN KY/MIDDLE TN AMIDST STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR.

A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE AND
ADVANCE INTO PARTS OF SRN IND...SWRN OH AND KY/ERN TN DURING THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE
SUSTAINED STORMS AND CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK. SVR THREATS
WILL DIMINISH WITH NE EXTENT AND AFTER SUNSET.

Saturday Storm Update: Charles' Predictions

(Banging head into keyboard) Good evening to all our blog readers! As promised, here is my first "call" on this system for these sections of Middle TN and South Central KY.

SCK: Threat will be limited due to warm front getting to this region, but that actually might increase the tornado chances due to the surface low passes that much closer giving us the strong winds aloft.

Storm arrival time: 10 am-2 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (.75-1.25"), Damaging winds (65 mph), and a tornado.

Northern Middle TN: Threat will be much like SCK, but since the warm front will actually be over them...that will keep you in the warm sector long enough to have some better destabilization. But they might be close enough to the "triple-point zone" to see an isolated tornado or two also.

Storm arrival time: 10 am-3 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (.75-1.5"), Damaging winds (65-70 mph), and a tornado.

Western Middle TN: Since storm arrival here will be earlier then most everyone else you guys won't have the "daytime heating" to help destabilize the atmosphere more then say areas in eastern Middle TN. With that said, I do believe the potential is there for an isolated tornado due the surface low being as close as it is.

Storm arrival time: 8 am-Noon
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large Hail (.75"), Damaging winds (60 mph), and a tornado.

Eastern Middle TN: This area will have an increased risk then say western, northern, and SCK due to the time it will be able to destabilize. The tornado risk looks low in this region, but since the unstable air mass will be in place, it is still a risk. I do see the southern edge of this part being in a MDT risk come Saturday morning...at least.

Storm time arrival: Noon-5 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (1"-1.5"), Damaging winds (65-70 mph), and a tornado.

Southern Middle TN: This area has the biggest chance at seeing severe weather. This is due to the higher instability values being in this region, and since they will be in the warm sector longer. I do see this area being upgraded to MDT risk by the SPC in there next outlook for this region.

Storm time arrival: 10 am-4 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (1"-1.5"), Damaging winds (70 mph), and a tornado or two.

Friday Night Not So Bad...Can't Say Same For Saturday

This is the outlook for Saturday and you can really see the wide range of severe storm potential from this one setup. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see some areas in the 45% go to MDT by tonight's updated outlook, or they move that risk up a few areas. The timing of this storm arrival is really what is up in the air. Some have it here and gone by lunchtime tomorrow, while some have the risk for scattered storms all day. I'm leaning more to an mid-afternoon threat and then we will see clearing late Saturday, but that could very easily change as we see today's model runs.

Many of you may be wondering about today and tonight. Well for today, we will have some scatter showers/t'storms around today, but severe weather isn't expected. The same scenario is forecasted, but the arrival of it has slowed down and that is why we think mid-day Saturday is when we will most likely see the strong to severe storms.

I will have an update later on today and will try to pin-point actually what areas may see what severe weather, and how much rain we may see too.

Tomorrow and Saturday's Severe Risk

Friday's Outlook: You can see that the SPC has moved the 30% hatched area northward a bit to include areas from Nashville westward for Friday night. It is important to remember that these numbers are more then likely to increase as we get closer. The models didn't do a good job last night of compromising, but hopefully today we will get a better understanding on what severe weather we may see.

Saturday Outlook: This outlook was posted by the SPC this morning and it has all of Middle TN and SCK included in the Slight risk category. It has areas east of Nashville in the 30% region this go around, only this time it isn't a hatched area. Saturday doesn't look as potent as Friday does, but we will still have to watch this closely too.

Nonetheless, this looks to be a wild next couple of days! I can't stress enough that everyone needs to watch this system very closely...