Saturday Storm Update: Charles' Predictions

(Banging head into keyboard) Good evening to all our blog readers! As promised, here is my first "call" on this system for these sections of Middle TN and South Central KY.

SCK: Threat will be limited due to warm front getting to this region, but that actually might increase the tornado chances due to the surface low passes that much closer giving us the strong winds aloft.

Storm arrival time: 10 am-2 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (.75-1.25"), Damaging winds (65 mph), and a tornado.

Northern Middle TN: Threat will be much like SCK, but since the warm front will actually be over them...that will keep you in the warm sector long enough to have some better destabilization. But they might be close enough to the "triple-point zone" to see an isolated tornado or two also.

Storm arrival time: 10 am-3 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (.75-1.5"), Damaging winds (65-70 mph), and a tornado.

Western Middle TN: Since storm arrival here will be earlier then most everyone else you guys won't have the "daytime heating" to help destabilize the atmosphere more then say areas in eastern Middle TN. With that said, I do believe the potential is there for an isolated tornado due the surface low being as close as it is.

Storm arrival time: 8 am-Noon
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large Hail (.75"), Damaging winds (60 mph), and a tornado.

Eastern Middle TN: This area will have an increased risk then say western, northern, and SCK due to the time it will be able to destabilize. The tornado risk looks low in this region, but since the unstable air mass will be in place, it is still a risk. I do see the southern edge of this part being in a MDT risk come Saturday morning...at least.

Storm time arrival: Noon-5 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (1"-1.5"), Damaging winds (65-70 mph), and a tornado.

Southern Middle TN: This area has the biggest chance at seeing severe weather. This is due to the higher instability values being in this region, and since they will be in the warm sector longer. I do see this area being upgraded to MDT risk by the SPC in there next outlook for this region.

Storm time arrival: 10 am-4 pm
The strongest possible storm to impact this region would have these possibilities: Large hail (1"-1.5"), Damaging winds (70 mph), and a tornado or two.