Record Breaking Days Over; Dry Weather Over Too

After this morning of waking up to temps. in the mid to upper 50's...we will have no more of these type days for the foreseen future. For mid summer, we won't see another temporary "break" like this for years and years to come I don't imagine.

Rain chances start to increase late today and especially across the overnight hours into your Wednesday where we are forecasting scattered to numerous showers and storms. Severe weather isn't forecasted, but a few cells could get strong and produce pea to dime size hail and winds upwards of 45-50 mph. It will be one of those "SPS" type days. (SPS is the abbreviation for 'Special Weather Statement')

Our high's should get out of the 70's for today, and with this system approaching us from the west...our humidity and DP will be climbing too, so it will be a bit more uncomfortable out their today.

Bastardi's Winter Outlook...Good News For Us!

If you are a winter lover...this is the map for you! Our weather pattern has shifted into an El Nino. The just of what that means is that we look to enter a more wetter and colder pattern for our winter season. I fully believe we will see an above average winter in terms of snowfall, but how much above is yet to be determined!

But to some of us, this cold pattern has already set in, it seems. Nashville and many other SE cities broke records yesterday for "min max" temp., and many overnight lows this morning have set records too. In the Smoky Mountains region, Mt. Leconte only topped out at 55ºF yesterday after starting at 35ºF! Newfound Gap started the day yesterday at 36ºF...for July! It is very possible this morning that Mt. Leconte hit the freezing point at some point during the night, which would be unheard of for mid summer.

Nashville Ties Record...Will We Break Any?

Yesterday, Nashville high only reached 76ºF. That tied the old record set back in 1918, so that tells you how rare July days like this are. Just to show you how widespread this unseasonably cool air mass is...

Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, and Bowling Green, KY, all broke records yesterday for maximun low high for the day.

Their are also many other areas who may be flirting with record lows tonight and tomorrow night as this very cool Canadian air mass is here and gives us great relief!

I'm only forecasting a high of 77ºF in Nashville today and for places on the Plateau and Rim...low 70's!

We bottomed out at 52.2ºF last night...how cold did you get?

Is This Still July?...Twinstateweather.com!

That is what many of you will be saying when you head outdoors this morning and out to do whatever chores you may need to do. I woke up with a morning low of 57.4ºF and have gotten back up to 59.8ºF...and that isn't the coldest it will get.

We will see high's range from the upper 70's across most of Middle TN, to "maybe" low 80;s for Nashville metro. I put maybe in quotes because it is very possible that Nashville will not get out of the 70's!

Low's will be really low for this time of year, we could see some records broken...good thing it is for low's and not high's! I am forecasting a low of 58ºF for Nashville with many areas ranging from 54ºF-58ºF.

*I want to make a quick post about a new blog I have joined. It is called http://www.twinstateweather.com/ and it is ran by Jonathan Burleson who used to work at WTVA out of Tupelo and has since moved to AL to work for a prominent weather service. He is a great forecaster and friend and I hope you guys check out his well done weather blog!

MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Possible

Some storms have fired up along an outflow boundary in and around the Hopkinsville, KY area and there is some concern that this action will only increase in coverage and intensity. If that occurs...a WW will most likely come out.

Areas from Nashville westward stand the best chance at seeing a watch come out, but all of Middle TN is in the slight risk so be alert if you are out.

Severe Update...Slight Risk Now In Effect

We will have to watch for later development this afternoon and later this evening for a possible MCS moving across this region bringing with it the chance at scattered wind damage potential.

Strong Storms Possible Today...Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

As I mentioned, we do have a chance at some strong storms later this evening into the overnight hours, especially over the Northern third of Middle TN. The bigger storm chances will come on Thursday where the SPC has a slight risk across this whole region.

Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats, and localized flooding is also a concern especially over the areas that have received very heavy rain over the past few other weather events.

Once the sun sets, most of these storms should die down in intensity and coverage due to the lost of the heating of the surface.

Wednesday and Thursday's Storm Threat...Isolated Severe Chances Too

We won't be seeing any storms or rain today, but come Wednesday...the SPC has many areas of Middle TN in the 5% storm chance, but a few areas in Northern Middle TN are in the Slight risk zone (15% storm chance). All of SCK is in this outlooked area and high winds look to be the main concern with any of these storms that form. Shear looks to be in the 45 to 50 knots range and that will support some very strong winds if the storms get going.

Then on Thursday we keep the severe risk going for all areas of Middle TN and SCK, but only a 5% chance. It looks like Thursday will be our best rain chance day this week and the SPC thinks a Slight risk area may need to be issued for a few of these areas from the Mid South up into the New England regions, but where is still yet to be determined.

A Scan of the Radar

I'm going to give you guys a little look into the radar and show you what is happening and who may be next to see this action.

As of right now, the MCS is leaving Middle TN and heading onto the Plateau regions. Just to name a few counties who will see this action here shortly...Cumberland, Van Buren, and Grundy Counties.

Currently we have a Severe T'storm warning out for Marshall and Bedford Counties which is on the very southern edge of this line and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible in this area.

There looks to be some redevelopment behind this line back in western Middle TN. These storms aren't severe right now, but we can't say that they never won't go severe as we still are pretty juicy here. Some places seeing this development are...Clarksville and Camden. We could see this happen all across Middle TN later on tonight, so a good majority of us may hear the roar of thunder tonight and these pest will be the reason why.

Loud and Windy Storms Today...and Tomorrow?

From the map I posted yesterday...you can tell that the SPC did some huge trimming back of the slight risk zone. Instead of one big area, they have divided it up into two smaller zones. Most of Middle TN is included the only areas not are the ones on the Cumberland Plateau as they are seeing some morning storms that will hamper their instability for this afternoon. The strongest of storms will have a good chance at producing damaging winds. An MCS could form and race SE into the outlooked areas later on tonight. So I will be on the lookout for that and let you guys know as soon as I know!

Tomorrow's outlook looks quite the same as today's. 2 smaller zones with one being in the High Plains and the other here in the Mid South, only difference is that only areas west and south of Nashville are included in this outlook. Damaging winds look to be the main threat tomorrow as well, but we can't rule out some large hail up to penny size. But with the mid-levels being pretty warm...that cuts the hail potential down.