Great Weather Continues; Rain Chances Increase For Independence Weekend?

Yesterday was a great day to get outside and enjoy the sun and maybe shoot off some bottle rockets as we are inching ourselves closer to Independence Day. Many areas yesterday hit temps. in the mid to upper 80's which felt great since last week we were in the sauna constantly with no escape. Today, areas will only see their temps. get to the mid 80's and on Wednesday...we are looking at low to mid 80's all around. Good thing I am playing my golf game on Wednesday!

With these "cooling" trends, the next thing on your mind is more then likely when is it going to rain. We will have some waves of energy move in Thursday and Friday, but they will be very weak and only isolated areas will see rain. It isn't until the weekend rolls around that we see those chances jump up to 30-40%. Now with that said, not everyone will see rain and storms those two night, and even if you do get some rain...it will not be enough to cancel your fireworks show or cookout.

And we still have a good 4-5 says to see what happens. If this front decides to slow down...most of the rain may be on Sunday and Monday. Whereas if it speeds up it could get here by Friday and early Saturday. But as of right now the best rain and storm chances look to be on Independence Day and Sunday.

Severe T'storm Watch Issued...Doesn't Contain Any In OHX region

As I anticipated, the SPC has issued a watch for SE TN, but the southern most counties in Middle TN are Franklin, Moore, and Lincoln...all of those are not in the Nashville NWS office. They are in Huntsville's NWS area.

I want to point out though that we could still see some strong storms form along the southern and southeastern sections of Middle TN, so please keep up with what the weather is like in your immediate area.

Weather Graphic: 6/28 Update

This is the weatherunderground radar view as of 12:13 pm and where you see the red circle, that is where the best areas of storm development could take place. There is a storm in Grundy County, SE Mid. TN, where I am watching to see what it can do.

From the map and looking at the SPC's MCD out. This is where the cold front is positioned, blue line. Places like Clarksville and Dickson are clear of the rain chances for today and soon Nashville will be as this front continues its SE march. Once we see this clearage, sunny skies should surface as should a NW wind to help keep the temperature and humidity down.

As mentioned, the SPC has a MCD out for areas of SE/ parts of E Middle TN. A Severe T'storm Watch is possible, but more then likely they will issue one for further into GA as there is only about a 2-3 hour window of storm opportunity in these regions. We will see what the SPC and local NWS offices does and I will relay that back here.

Severe Storms Possible Today; Not Widespread However

We will have a weak cold front move through this region today and early this evening, we will see isolated severe storms pop anywhere here in Middle TN today, but the best chances lie across areas from mainly Nashville eastward and then on the TN/AL line. Any storms that do form will have the potential at 60-65 mph winds and large hail up to nickel size.

The hail threat won't be as prominent as we will have warm air aloft that will hamper in the hail formation process, but if we do see a storm produce large updraft and have a large VIL, which all VIL stands for is Vertically Integrated Liquid and that shows you how much moisture is in a storm. The higher the VIL, the more moisture and the greatest chance of seeing hail.

*As I was typing this post, I looked out my window and I am staring into the heart of a thick fog. When I started typing this post there was almost no fog present, now there is a thick blanket of it. And I do not live by a water source that would cause it to build up faster either. So be careful driving this morning if you run into thick areas of fog.

MCD: Watch Possible Southern/SE Middle TN

To my surprise, the SPC has issued a MCD for these regions of the SE. Storms are forming right now in SE Middle TN but are not severe. With this dry air in place I am surprised we are seeing these storms fire this early, that means by later on this afternoon...we could see some go severe. Hence the reason we have this possible watch outlook. I will be here giving you the latest on watches and storm reports if any surface.

Heat Advisory: Western Middle TN

The NWS out of Nashville has issued a Heat Advisory for the following counties: Stewart, Montgomery, Benton, Houston, Humphreys, Dickson, Perry, Hickman, Lewis, Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles.

It goes into effect at 1 pm and will last til 8 pm. Temperatures will get up into the mid 90's and with abundant moisture present...the heat indexes will reach between 105º-107º.

Outdoor activity isn't advised in these regions, but if you do happen to be outdoors, make sure you drink plenty of fluids and wear light color clothes.

The SPC has our area zoned for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The main threats will be for isolated wind and hail potential in the strongest of storms. Too bad we can't get the rain relief today, I know the ones in western Middle TN would love some rain and clouds!

Slight Risk Issued For Today...Local Damaging Winds Main Threat

Temperatures will rise into the low 90's here and that, while accompanied with DP's in the low 70º range, will cause some scattered storms to develop over Middle TN and SCK. The best areas to experience this action will be the N/NE sections, but all of Middle TN can see storms pop.

Damaging winds will be the main threat, as we will have warm air aloft that will keep the hail potential at bay. We also have almost no shear or lift in the atmosphere...that is why the tornadic threat is at zero or very close to it.

Morning Convection, More Possible Later Today; Sunday's Severe Risk

This broad area of rain is moving SE at 35 mph and will only affect the NE sections of Middle TN and SCK. Rainfall amounts will be generally around the .25"-.5" rain category, but locally higher amounts are possible in the brief downpours.

We are expecting more storms to fire up later this afternoon. The SPC only has us in a "See Text" zone, but that still is a severe category, so we could see one or two isolated severe pulse storms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat today.

This is Sunday's map and as you can tell, all of Middle TN and most of SCK is included. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks, but this event is still two more days away...so the timing and intensity is still up in the air so to speak.

SPC Convective Outlook High Risk Day Research; Phased Array Radar

Over the past few days, I have looked at the SPC's convective outlook for them issuing High risk zones. Here are a few facts:

• Total # of High Risk Days Issued (since recordings began in 1984): 77


• Busted: 13


• Small Events (could have been a MDT or Slight risk day and done well): 5

The February 5th Tornado Outbreak tied for the deadliest High Risk day ever since recordings began. So that tells you how rare that event was...

As far as busted outlooks go, in the past 8 years from 2001-now, the SPC has busted 8 times. Over the other past 17 years (from 1984-2000)...only 5 busted.

I bring that statistic up not to make the SPC look bad because they do a great job on issuing these outlooks (77 total with only 13 busts!), but that is a problem that when over the past 8 years, 8 events have not gone as predicted. But at the same time it is a good thing because lose of property and life didn't occur, but for forecasting purposes...it was a bust and needs correcting

A new radar system called 'Phased Array Radar', is a newly developed system that will give you the same information the typical Doppler radar would, but in faster time. The researchers believe that with this new technology, they could increase warning times from the 10 minutes now...to 18-22 minutes. That extra 8-12 minutes is very crucial even if it doesn't seem like much.

This system works with 6 different radar beams going out at once collecting data. While the convectional Doppler radar would just give out the one beam or "sweep" we see on TV. That would normally take 5 minutes to do. With these 6 beams all working together...it cuts that new radar scan time down to 30 seconds. That is a huge difference!

They are also trying to develop a new product called 'Rotation Tracker' that will allow meteorologist to look at the increase or decrease in shear over time. Shear is a crucial, and key ingredient in the making of tornadoes. More info can be found on these projects at www.nssl.noaa.gov/par/

Still 90º's...But Less Humid! Thankfully!!!

After having the past couple of days stuck in the fringe of this "H" pressure, we see it move a little to the west today and that will give us lower temps., less humidity, and also a nice NE wind to help cool things off as well.

We still will be in the 90's across all of Middle TN, but not the 96ºF readings or anything like that. (I'm forecasting 92ºF in Nashville) The only bad thing about today is that we won't have a rain chance to help cool things off even more, but Friday we do see a system from the NW come down and it gives all of Middle TN a chance (SE corner has the lowest chance).

I do want to stress that even with this weather being more bearable, it isn't an all clear to go outside and stay out all day. With temps. in the 90ºF range, it wouldn't take people long to get overheated, so please drink plenty of water if you are out today.