MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Possible..Middle TN/SCK

This was issued at 1:21 pm and the SPC is watching this current action in western and central KY and thinks that the severe weather risk is indeed increasing over our region. We continue to see peaks of sun here in Macon County and I would say all across Middle TN, that is helping to unstabilize our atmosphere. CAPE values are in the 2000 J/kg range across southern Middle TN and 1500 elsewhere...that is plenty enough to support severe weather.

If I watch is issued, I will post it here! So be on the lookout today if you are out and about.

Slight Risk: Middle TN and SCK

Storms are beginning to fire up across our region at this hour. Air mass will continue to destabilize across this area throughout the afternoon, and any storms that do form will have the risk at large hail and damaging winds.

Tornado Warnings, Severe T'storm Warnings...Glad Only One Storm Report

After yesterday's rough MCS came through, I was thinking we would see a lot of wind damage and maybe isolated tornadoes too...that, thankfully, didn't happen.

There was one tornado report and that occurred in the Woodlawn, TN area in Montgomery County where law enforcement reported seeing 2 tornadoes on the ground. As of this morning, no damage has been reported, and if there is no damage for the NWS to survey...they will just call this tornado an EF-0.

We could see more storms fire today anywhere in Middle TN, but the best chances for severe weather look to be south of Middle TN all together. The main concern today is going to be flooding as some areas have received over 3" since last night, especially in the SE corner around Parsons, TN.

Last Glimpse At Radar

This is the latest radar image at 11:25 pm and it shows the leftover MCS over the Plateau and continuing to race eastward into east TN. The storms you see back in west TN fired back up and they look very potent on radar, but currently there are no warnings out for any of these cells and I think it is safe to think it will stay that way.

The people in western Middle TN will see frequent lightning and heavy rain out of this, but no severe weather is expected...could see some pea to dime size hail and also wind gusts upwards of 40-45 mph.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #549

This is a couple minutes old, just out from the Storm Prediction Center.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0549.html

Updated Severe Outlook: 7/4

This is the wind profile from the outlooks and zoned out is a 15% risk area for now all of Middle TN and SCK. This morning it was just located in the Northern Middle TN areas and SCK. The 30% wind profiles do clip portions of western Middle around the Waverly and Dover areas.

We could see a MCS form tonight from the action that is associated back in OK moving into AR at this time, and the SPC is thinking that for anyone in this slight risk zone...could see damaging winds. This will be a damaging event, and the locations in the 30% risk area have the best chance.

By the time the next outlook comes (3 pm)...we should be seeing this MCS form and we should know if and when the storms will arrive.

Independence Day Forecast...Severe Storms Possible, But Where?

As of right now, it looks like the biggest area of concern for today is located up close to the surface low in Western KY and Eastern MO. In that location, we could also see isolated tornadoes on top of the damaging winds and large hail.

For here, at least SCK and Northern Middle TN, we could see a squall line or MCS form and move towards us late tonight into the early morning hours. Here is a list of locations and how bad it could get.

• Hopkinsville, KY: MCS arrives at around 7 pm, damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail the size of quarters possible.
  
• Springfield, TN: MCS arrives at around 8 pm, damaging winds up to 65 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
  
• Bowling Green, KY: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 8:30-9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
  
• Nashville, TN: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
  
• Tompkinsville, KY: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
  
• Gainesboro, TN: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.

I didn't mention any southern Middle TN counties for a reason, as you can see by my forecast, I am predicting the MCS to be dying out once it hits Central KY and Northern Middle TN by late tonight into early Sunday morning. For those of you in Southern Middle TN, you should get your fireworks off and going with no problem, while those of us in the Northern counties will have to keep a look to the sky and ears to NOAA weather radio as I do expect we will see a few warnings pop-up here.

Sunday we could see a severe threat, but that would mainly be across the SE counties where the cold front will be stationed and the SPC only gets to the AL/TN border with the latest outlook.


***I also want to say a personal message to the soldiers of our past and present. Thank you's just doesn't seem to be enough when you guys go out everyday and fight for our freedom and Independence, I am praying that you guys will be safe and also I am praying to those families who have loved ones overseas or even the ones who are still in training or on standby over here in the states. Thank you and may God Bless the USA and each one of you!

Tricky Independence Day and Weekend Forecast

This is the categorical risk zone for Saturday and in this zone are people North/NW of Nashville into SCK. The biggest risk is going to be damaging winds, but large hail will be possible too.

I say this is a tricky forecast because the timing of these storms is what has us up a creek without a paddle. The main line of storms doesn't look to hit Middle TN til the early morning hours of Sunday (Sunday's SPC outlook below), but we could see some strong to severe storms form out ahead of it late Saturday.

Tomorrow, we should know when these storms will hit and how bad they could be.

Sunday's risk includes areas from Nashville southward and eastward. Damaging winds will the main threat as we could see an MCS type system roll through here, but large hail could form as well if we get enough cold air aloft.

Clear, Warm Day Today and Tomorrow; Independence Day/Weekend Washout?

This outlook period is for Saturday and it includes most of Middle TN and SCK with Nashville being in it as well. The SPC is saying that a leftover MCS from Friday night will be trekking across this region, the outflow boundary that could form off of this MCS could spark off new storm development over this outlooked area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

This is the the Day 4-8 categorical risk outlooks and these events are ones that are more hard to pinpoint because they are far away, but the SPC felt that for Sunday's threat...they needed to issue one for us to see what they are thinking.

Right now they are saying that the leftover convection from Saturday could evolve into an MCS and move across this whole region starting in the Ozarks and moving into the TN Valley regions. All of Middle TN is included in this outlook.

I am putting the rain chances at 50% for Saturday and 60% for Sunday. Not everyone will see rain and if you do...I wouldn't cancel my Fourth of July plans as it won't be a constant rain over a long period of time, you may just have to call a short rain delay or something of that nature!

Isolated Severe Storms Last Night, More Tonight?

This was issued at around 11:35 pm last night and they never did issue a watch, but they just outlooked this region as we were seeing some severe storms move through these regions. There was even a Tornado Warning issued for a cell over in Fentress and Overton Counties, luckily one never did produce and if it did it only hit rural areas.

• There were a few severe reports from these storms. Close to Bethpage in Sumner County, a fireworks tent was blow upwards and caused a minor injury to the worker at that stand.

• Also, over in Overton County, a few trees were down on power lines and caused few power outages in that county.

• After those surprises last night, we could see some more isolated cells pop-up tonight in advance of another shortwave system that will push through here overnight. I put the chance at 20% for areas of Nashville northward and eastward. These storms will have the chance at damaging wind gusts and large hail to nickel size.