Sunday QuickCast

A chilly start kicks off what appears to be a great day for us here in Middle Tennessee. We'll continue to see partly sunny skies and cooler temperatures for your Sunday. This appears to be the last day we'll see this awesome weather for a while, we have a chance of rain to start out for your Monday, then chances throughout much of the week. Warmer temperatures are also on their way.

SUNDAY FORECAST:
Partly Sunny
High near 65
Winds steady at 5 gusting to 10

SUNDAY NIGHT:
Increasing Clouds, becoming Mostly Cloudy
Low around 44
Winds steady at 5

Forecast for the Week Ahead

Good evening to all!! I have decided to begin posting my weather forecasts on this site again. I hope you will all come back to reading our material and we hope you find it accurate and timely.

Today was great! We had clear blue skies, below normal temperatures, and a sometimes brisk wind for Middle Tennessee. I'd love to say that will stick around, but it doesn't appear likely at all. Changes are on the way for the Mid-South. Following the epic flooding on May 1st and 2nd, Tennessee has seen a very quiet weather pattern, only a few showers and storms moved through a few days ago, but that did not amount to anything at all (thank God). Now it appears we will be sliding into an active weather pattern for the week ahead.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE FORECAST:
SUNDAY: Mostly Sunny, High near 65, steady winds at 5 mph; gusts to 10

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds, Low around 64, 10% Chance of Rain

MONDAY: 50% Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, High near 70

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers and A Few Storms, Low near 61, Chance of Rain 40%

TUESDAY: Chance of Showers and an Isolated storm, High near 82, Chance of rain 20%

Heavy Rain Moving In; Flooding a Real Problem This Week

We are seeing a huge batch of rain move in from the west this morning and that is the big boy we will have to deal with for today. Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of west TN and northern MS, we could see those translate to heavy rainfall for us too.

This rain will move in this morning and by afternoon, we could see a few isolated thunderstorms form but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Wednesday we see this front stall over our region and bring with it more chances at scattered rain and storms. We could see a few isolated severe storms as well, but widespread severe storm activity isn't expected.

Dry Today...Then The Floodgates Open

After having the boundary sit across the Middle TN area yesterday, that will push further south today and leave many of us dry (can't rule out an isolated shower or t'shower for the counties bordering AL though).

After today...we won't be seeing many days of sunshine or dryness. The QPF readings (which they measure how much rain is expected over an extended period) have all areas of Middle TN and SCK getting over 2.5" of rain this week and one model has it over 3" for all areas with isolated higher amounts.

I will point out that Tuesday will be a mostly dry day til the later part of it into the overnight hours. Then Wednesday through Friday will be when we see the heavy rain come in and stay in.

Today's Severe Risk; Weekend Rain

This morning outlook looks very similar to the one they issued yesterday at lunchtime. The threat is for all of SCK, but residents living north of I-40, especially on the TN/KY line, need to watch this severe day closely. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but large hail is also possible. The bigger tornado risk will be up way north of here where the surface low is at.

While severe weather may not be in the forecast, heavy and widespread rain is. We will have off and on rain chances starting today for the northern third and spreading more widespread as we head into the middle of next week.

A Tornado Watch...For One Cell?

This is the watch that the SPC issued this afternoon at 1:10 pm for portions of the Upper Midwest. Most watches last between 7-10 hours because of the anticipation of severe storms to develop in that watch region and they issue it about 1-2 hours before storms really get going to alert the public of the severe storm potential.

This watch was only issued for that one lone supercell you see on the radar map above in NE Iowa and only put into effect for 4 hours and 50 minutes. You may be thinking that maybe they issued it because they thought more super cellular storms may form out ahead of that one, but the watch discussion didn't mention that risk at all and, in fact, no new storms formed and that one cell ended up dissipating.

I have only been tracking storms for two years and forecasting for one, but I will admit that this is a first I have ever seen and don't believe a watch has ever been issued before because of one cell.

Tomorrow's Severe Risk: SCK

SPC has updated the outlook for tomorrow and all of SCK is included in this area. Damaging winds look to be the main threats in this area as the better instability values will be up into portions of the Great Lakes region around Cleveland, OH, where the surface low will be and the SPC outlook has this same approach in this outlook.

It is not out of the question that northern areas of Middle TN will be in this risk tomorrow, so keep alert of the latest!

Some Morning Showers...Any For Your Afternoon?

We have some showers affecting the northern most part of Middle TN and parts of SCK as well. These are generally light showers, but we can't rule out a strike of lightning. Most people will stay dry today even with these showers across the Northern third of Middle TN.

Once these showers move out, the question on everyone's mind is if we will have more showers/t'showers this afternoon. To answer your question...probably not. I am putting the chance at 20% this afternoon for the northern third and SCK, but that means for you even there is an 80% chance it won't do anything.

But not to worry, if you are one who likes rain or storms...late Saturday into Sunday will be the day for you. A front will actually stall over our region or just south of us and bring rain chances well into the middle of next week.

Current Radar View...Lunchtime Rain!

Widespread Rain This Morning; Very Low Severe Risk

We wake up this morning to a wide swath of rain over the mid-state where many areas are seeing rain totals around .25"-up to an inch is very beneficial and for mid summer...quite pleasant!

As mentioned in the title, we do stand a severe threat today, but you have a better chance of seeing President Obama today then you do a severe storm. If a severe storm does decide to go up and up...the main risk will be severe wind gusts and possibly hail the size of pennies, but the hail threat is going to be almost non-existent today.

With this rain and storm coverage around, this will keep our temps. down today. I'm only forecasting 78ºF for Nashville with lower temps. elsewhere. There is an outside chance that areas of far western Middle TN could see the rain and possibly even the clouds give way. If that happens, then they could get into the 80's for a high, but like I said...that is an outside chance and will more then likely not happen.

Record Breaking Days Over; Dry Weather Over Too

After this morning of waking up to temps. in the mid to upper 50's...we will have no more of these type days for the foreseen future. For mid summer, we won't see another temporary "break" like this for years and years to come I don't imagine.

Rain chances start to increase late today and especially across the overnight hours into your Wednesday where we are forecasting scattered to numerous showers and storms. Severe weather isn't forecasted, but a few cells could get strong and produce pea to dime size hail and winds upwards of 45-50 mph. It will be one of those "SPS" type days. (SPS is the abbreviation for 'Special Weather Statement')

Our high's should get out of the 70's for today, and with this system approaching us from the west...our humidity and DP will be climbing too, so it will be a bit more uncomfortable out their today.

Bastardi's Winter Outlook...Good News For Us!

If you are a winter lover...this is the map for you! Our weather pattern has shifted into an El Nino. The just of what that means is that we look to enter a more wetter and colder pattern for our winter season. I fully believe we will see an above average winter in terms of snowfall, but how much above is yet to be determined!

But to some of us, this cold pattern has already set in, it seems. Nashville and many other SE cities broke records yesterday for "min max" temp., and many overnight lows this morning have set records too. In the Smoky Mountains region, Mt. Leconte only topped out at 55ºF yesterday after starting at 35ºF! Newfound Gap started the day yesterday at 36ºF...for July! It is very possible this morning that Mt. Leconte hit the freezing point at some point during the night, which would be unheard of for mid summer.

Nashville Ties Record...Will We Break Any?

Yesterday, Nashville high only reached 76ºF. That tied the old record set back in 1918, so that tells you how rare July days like this are. Just to show you how widespread this unseasonably cool air mass is...

Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, and Bowling Green, KY, all broke records yesterday for maximun low high for the day.

Their are also many other areas who may be flirting with record lows tonight and tomorrow night as this very cool Canadian air mass is here and gives us great relief!

I'm only forecasting a high of 77ºF in Nashville today and for places on the Plateau and Rim...low 70's!

We bottomed out at 52.2ºF last night...how cold did you get?

Is This Still July?...Twinstateweather.com!

That is what many of you will be saying when you head outdoors this morning and out to do whatever chores you may need to do. I woke up with a morning low of 57.4ºF and have gotten back up to 59.8ºF...and that isn't the coldest it will get.

We will see high's range from the upper 70's across most of Middle TN, to "maybe" low 80;s for Nashville metro. I put maybe in quotes because it is very possible that Nashville will not get out of the 70's!

Low's will be really low for this time of year, we could see some records broken...good thing it is for low's and not high's! I am forecasting a low of 58ºF for Nashville with many areas ranging from 54ºF-58ºF.

*I want to make a quick post about a new blog I have joined. It is called http://www.twinstateweather.com/ and it is ran by Jonathan Burleson who used to work at WTVA out of Tupelo and has since moved to AL to work for a prominent weather service. He is a great forecaster and friend and I hope you guys check out his well done weather blog!

MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Possible

Some storms have fired up along an outflow boundary in and around the Hopkinsville, KY area and there is some concern that this action will only increase in coverage and intensity. If that occurs...a WW will most likely come out.

Areas from Nashville westward stand the best chance at seeing a watch come out, but all of Middle TN is in the slight risk so be alert if you are out.

Severe Update...Slight Risk Now In Effect

We will have to watch for later development this afternoon and later this evening for a possible MCS moving across this region bringing with it the chance at scattered wind damage potential.

Strong Storms Possible Today...Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

As I mentioned, we do have a chance at some strong storms later this evening into the overnight hours, especially over the Northern third of Middle TN. The bigger storm chances will come on Thursday where the SPC has a slight risk across this whole region.

Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats, and localized flooding is also a concern especially over the areas that have received very heavy rain over the past few other weather events.

Once the sun sets, most of these storms should die down in intensity and coverage due to the lost of the heating of the surface.

Wednesday and Thursday's Storm Threat...Isolated Severe Chances Too

We won't be seeing any storms or rain today, but come Wednesday...the SPC has many areas of Middle TN in the 5% storm chance, but a few areas in Northern Middle TN are in the Slight risk zone (15% storm chance). All of SCK is in this outlooked area and high winds look to be the main concern with any of these storms that form. Shear looks to be in the 45 to 50 knots range and that will support some very strong winds if the storms get going.

Then on Thursday we keep the severe risk going for all areas of Middle TN and SCK, but only a 5% chance. It looks like Thursday will be our best rain chance day this week and the SPC thinks a Slight risk area may need to be issued for a few of these areas from the Mid South up into the New England regions, but where is still yet to be determined.

A Scan of the Radar

I'm going to give you guys a little look into the radar and show you what is happening and who may be next to see this action.

As of right now, the MCS is leaving Middle TN and heading onto the Plateau regions. Just to name a few counties who will see this action here shortly...Cumberland, Van Buren, and Grundy Counties.

Currently we have a Severe T'storm warning out for Marshall and Bedford Counties which is on the very southern edge of this line and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible in this area.

There looks to be some redevelopment behind this line back in western Middle TN. These storms aren't severe right now, but we can't say that they never won't go severe as we still are pretty juicy here. Some places seeing this development are...Clarksville and Camden. We could see this happen all across Middle TN later on tonight, so a good majority of us may hear the roar of thunder tonight and these pest will be the reason why.

Loud and Windy Storms Today...and Tomorrow?

From the map I posted yesterday...you can tell that the SPC did some huge trimming back of the slight risk zone. Instead of one big area, they have divided it up into two smaller zones. Most of Middle TN is included the only areas not are the ones on the Cumberland Plateau as they are seeing some morning storms that will hamper their instability for this afternoon. The strongest of storms will have a good chance at producing damaging winds. An MCS could form and race SE into the outlooked areas later on tonight. So I will be on the lookout for that and let you guys know as soon as I know!

Tomorrow's outlook looks quite the same as today's. 2 smaller zones with one being in the High Plains and the other here in the Mid South, only difference is that only areas west and south of Nashville are included in this outlook. Damaging winds look to be the main threat tomorrow as well, but we can't rule out some large hail up to penny size. But with the mid-levels being pretty warm...that cuts the hail potential down.