Heavy Rain Moving In; Flooding a Real Problem This Week

We are seeing a huge batch of rain move in from the west this morning and that is the big boy we will have to deal with for today. Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of west TN and northern MS, we could see those translate to heavy rainfall for us too.

This rain will move in this morning and by afternoon, we could see a few isolated thunderstorms form but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Wednesday we see this front stall over our region and bring with it more chances at scattered rain and storms. We could see a few isolated severe storms as well, but widespread severe storm activity isn't expected.

Dry Today...Then The Floodgates Open

After having the boundary sit across the Middle TN area yesterday, that will push further south today and leave many of us dry (can't rule out an isolated shower or t'shower for the counties bordering AL though).

After today...we won't be seeing many days of sunshine or dryness. The QPF readings (which they measure how much rain is expected over an extended period) have all areas of Middle TN and SCK getting over 2.5" of rain this week and one model has it over 3" for all areas with isolated higher amounts.

I will point out that Tuesday will be a mostly dry day til the later part of it into the overnight hours. Then Wednesday through Friday will be when we see the heavy rain come in and stay in.

Today's Severe Risk; Weekend Rain

This morning outlook looks very similar to the one they issued yesterday at lunchtime. The threat is for all of SCK, but residents living north of I-40, especially on the TN/KY line, need to watch this severe day closely. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but large hail is also possible. The bigger tornado risk will be up way north of here where the surface low is at.

While severe weather may not be in the forecast, heavy and widespread rain is. We will have off and on rain chances starting today for the northern third and spreading more widespread as we head into the middle of next week.

A Tornado Watch...For One Cell?

This is the watch that the SPC issued this afternoon at 1:10 pm for portions of the Upper Midwest. Most watches last between 7-10 hours because of the anticipation of severe storms to develop in that watch region and they issue it about 1-2 hours before storms really get going to alert the public of the severe storm potential.

This watch was only issued for that one lone supercell you see on the radar map above in NE Iowa and only put into effect for 4 hours and 50 minutes. You may be thinking that maybe they issued it because they thought more super cellular storms may form out ahead of that one, but the watch discussion didn't mention that risk at all and, in fact, no new storms formed and that one cell ended up dissipating.

I have only been tracking storms for two years and forecasting for one, but I will admit that this is a first I have ever seen and don't believe a watch has ever been issued before because of one cell.

Tomorrow's Severe Risk: SCK

SPC has updated the outlook for tomorrow and all of SCK is included in this area. Damaging winds look to be the main threats in this area as the better instability values will be up into portions of the Great Lakes region around Cleveland, OH, where the surface low will be and the SPC outlook has this same approach in this outlook.

It is not out of the question that northern areas of Middle TN will be in this risk tomorrow, so keep alert of the latest!

Some Morning Showers...Any For Your Afternoon?

We have some showers affecting the northern most part of Middle TN and parts of SCK as well. These are generally light showers, but we can't rule out a strike of lightning. Most people will stay dry today even with these showers across the Northern third of Middle TN.

Once these showers move out, the question on everyone's mind is if we will have more showers/t'showers this afternoon. To answer your question...probably not. I am putting the chance at 20% this afternoon for the northern third and SCK, but that means for you even there is an 80% chance it won't do anything.

But not to worry, if you are one who likes rain or storms...late Saturday into Sunday will be the day for you. A front will actually stall over our region or just south of us and bring rain chances well into the middle of next week.

Current Radar View...Lunchtime Rain!

Widespread Rain This Morning; Very Low Severe Risk

We wake up this morning to a wide swath of rain over the mid-state where many areas are seeing rain totals around .25"-up to an inch is very beneficial and for mid summer...quite pleasant!

As mentioned in the title, we do stand a severe threat today, but you have a better chance of seeing President Obama today then you do a severe storm. If a severe storm does decide to go up and up...the main risk will be severe wind gusts and possibly hail the size of pennies, but the hail threat is going to be almost non-existent today.

With this rain and storm coverage around, this will keep our temps. down today. I'm only forecasting 78ºF for Nashville with lower temps. elsewhere. There is an outside chance that areas of far western Middle TN could see the rain and possibly even the clouds give way. If that happens, then they could get into the 80's for a high, but like I said...that is an outside chance and will more then likely not happen.

Record Breaking Days Over; Dry Weather Over Too

After this morning of waking up to temps. in the mid to upper 50's...we will have no more of these type days for the foreseen future. For mid summer, we won't see another temporary "break" like this for years and years to come I don't imagine.

Rain chances start to increase late today and especially across the overnight hours into your Wednesday where we are forecasting scattered to numerous showers and storms. Severe weather isn't forecasted, but a few cells could get strong and produce pea to dime size hail and winds upwards of 45-50 mph. It will be one of those "SPS" type days. (SPS is the abbreviation for 'Special Weather Statement')

Our high's should get out of the 70's for today, and with this system approaching us from the west...our humidity and DP will be climbing too, so it will be a bit more uncomfortable out their today.

Bastardi's Winter Outlook...Good News For Us!

If you are a winter lover...this is the map for you! Our weather pattern has shifted into an El Nino. The just of what that means is that we look to enter a more wetter and colder pattern for our winter season. I fully believe we will see an above average winter in terms of snowfall, but how much above is yet to be determined!

But to some of us, this cold pattern has already set in, it seems. Nashville and many other SE cities broke records yesterday for "min max" temp., and many overnight lows this morning have set records too. In the Smoky Mountains region, Mt. Leconte only topped out at 55ºF yesterday after starting at 35ºF! Newfound Gap started the day yesterday at 36ºF...for July! It is very possible this morning that Mt. Leconte hit the freezing point at some point during the night, which would be unheard of for mid summer.

Nashville Ties Record...Will We Break Any?

Yesterday, Nashville high only reached 76ºF. That tied the old record set back in 1918, so that tells you how rare July days like this are. Just to show you how widespread this unseasonably cool air mass is...

Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, and Bowling Green, KY, all broke records yesterday for maximun low high for the day.

Their are also many other areas who may be flirting with record lows tonight and tomorrow night as this very cool Canadian air mass is here and gives us great relief!

I'm only forecasting a high of 77ºF in Nashville today and for places on the Plateau and Rim...low 70's!

We bottomed out at 52.2ºF last night...how cold did you get?

Is This Still July?...Twinstateweather.com!

That is what many of you will be saying when you head outdoors this morning and out to do whatever chores you may need to do. I woke up with a morning low of 57.4ºF and have gotten back up to 59.8ºF...and that isn't the coldest it will get.

We will see high's range from the upper 70's across most of Middle TN, to "maybe" low 80;s for Nashville metro. I put maybe in quotes because it is very possible that Nashville will not get out of the 70's!

Low's will be really low for this time of year, we could see some records broken...good thing it is for low's and not high's! I am forecasting a low of 58ºF for Nashville with many areas ranging from 54ºF-58ºF.

*I want to make a quick post about a new blog I have joined. It is called http://www.twinstateweather.com/ and it is ran by Jonathan Burleson who used to work at WTVA out of Tupelo and has since moved to AL to work for a prominent weather service. He is a great forecaster and friend and I hope you guys check out his well done weather blog!

MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Possible

Some storms have fired up along an outflow boundary in and around the Hopkinsville, KY area and there is some concern that this action will only increase in coverage and intensity. If that occurs...a WW will most likely come out.

Areas from Nashville westward stand the best chance at seeing a watch come out, but all of Middle TN is in the slight risk so be alert if you are out.

Severe Update...Slight Risk Now In Effect

We will have to watch for later development this afternoon and later this evening for a possible MCS moving across this region bringing with it the chance at scattered wind damage potential.

Strong Storms Possible Today...Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow

As I mentioned, we do have a chance at some strong storms later this evening into the overnight hours, especially over the Northern third of Middle TN. The bigger storm chances will come on Thursday where the SPC has a slight risk across this whole region.

Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats, and localized flooding is also a concern especially over the areas that have received very heavy rain over the past few other weather events.

Once the sun sets, most of these storms should die down in intensity and coverage due to the lost of the heating of the surface.

Wednesday and Thursday's Storm Threat...Isolated Severe Chances Too

We won't be seeing any storms or rain today, but come Wednesday...the SPC has many areas of Middle TN in the 5% storm chance, but a few areas in Northern Middle TN are in the Slight risk zone (15% storm chance). All of SCK is in this outlooked area and high winds look to be the main concern with any of these storms that form. Shear looks to be in the 45 to 50 knots range and that will support some very strong winds if the storms get going.

Then on Thursday we keep the severe risk going for all areas of Middle TN and SCK, but only a 5% chance. It looks like Thursday will be our best rain chance day this week and the SPC thinks a Slight risk area may need to be issued for a few of these areas from the Mid South up into the New England regions, but where is still yet to be determined.

A Scan of the Radar

I'm going to give you guys a little look into the radar and show you what is happening and who may be next to see this action.

As of right now, the MCS is leaving Middle TN and heading onto the Plateau regions. Just to name a few counties who will see this action here shortly...Cumberland, Van Buren, and Grundy Counties.

Currently we have a Severe T'storm warning out for Marshall and Bedford Counties which is on the very southern edge of this line and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible in this area.

There looks to be some redevelopment behind this line back in western Middle TN. These storms aren't severe right now, but we can't say that they never won't go severe as we still are pretty juicy here. Some places seeing this development are...Clarksville and Camden. We could see this happen all across Middle TN later on tonight, so a good majority of us may hear the roar of thunder tonight and these pest will be the reason why.

Loud and Windy Storms Today...and Tomorrow?

From the map I posted yesterday...you can tell that the SPC did some huge trimming back of the slight risk zone. Instead of one big area, they have divided it up into two smaller zones. Most of Middle TN is included the only areas not are the ones on the Cumberland Plateau as they are seeing some morning storms that will hamper their instability for this afternoon. The strongest of storms will have a good chance at producing damaging winds. An MCS could form and race SE into the outlooked areas later on tonight. So I will be on the lookout for that and let you guys know as soon as I know!

Tomorrow's outlook looks quite the same as today's. 2 smaller zones with one being in the High Plains and the other here in the Mid South, only difference is that only areas west and south of Nashville are included in this outlook. Damaging winds look to be the main threat tomorrow as well, but we can't rule out some large hail up to penny size. But with the mid-levels being pretty warm...that cuts the hail potential down.

Two Days of Severe?

This is the wind profile of the SPC outlooks and this is the main reason we are in a slight risk for today. Any storms that do decide to from will run the risk at producing damaging wind gusts.

We could see a weakening MCS move over us tonight and that will play a huge roll in Sunday's action.

Tomorrow's outlook is what I am more concerned about. The SPC meteorologists are forecasting that we could see one or even two MCS's move over this region during the day and evening on Sunday.

The leftover MCS that looks to hit late Saturday night into Sunday will play a key part in how unstable we are and what our atmosphere will be like for severe weather. If the MCS misses us altogether tonight, which is highly unlikely,...then our atmosphere will be untampered with and we will have very unstable conditions to deal with on Sunday.

If the MCS does hit, like expected, then it will take some time for our atmosphere to recharge itself and that could cut down on the popcorn severe type storms, but the SPC is thinking our atmosphere will destabilize enough to allow severe weather so that is why all of Middle TN/SCK is in the slight category.

No Rain For Today; Sunday's Severe Risk

The SPC has areas across Northern Middle TN and SCK in a Slight risk for severe storms during the Sunday period. From reading the discussion they put with each of these outlooks, it appears we may be looking at a one-two punch.

They mention that early on Sunday morning, an ongoing MCS looks to be occurring somewhere in the mid/lower Ohio Valley region. If that transpires in the "lower portion", then we could see that roll through here, but with it hitting in the early morning hours...I am unsure how strong it may be, but it helps with it hitting us, if at all, at the the least most favorable time for severe storms. But too, it could possibly form north of us in Central KY and race SE and miss us all together and that is a realistic scenario, and most likely one, as well.

Then during the day on Sunday, we could see a few strong to severe storms "pop" in the heating of the atmosphere mainly during the afternoon hours. We will have to watch the storms back up to our NW as well, because those storms will have the chance at forming into an MCS and charge its way SE into SCK and Northern Middle TN and bring with it a high wind and hail chance.

Up and Coming Temps.; Rain By Weekend?

We will see the thermometer rise today into the low 90's today as well, the only difference...the humidity will be up too. The good news is that the temps. will not get as warm this week as first thought. I was forecasting 94-96ºF on Monday for today, but now that Thursday is here, I am only forecasting 92ºF for Nashville.

The models are in good agreement of bringing us some rain/storm chances late Saturday into all day Sunday. Right now the chances are only at 40% for the OHX region, while in the LOU market they are forecasting a 50% chance Sunday. The 40% chances don't look all that good, but with this event still 2-3 days away...those are pretty big probabilities.

Dry, Non-Eventful Weather Continues

The only difference in today's forecast then yesterday's will be that we don't have the morning fog this morning and we are starting a couple of degrees warmer, other then that...everything looks and will feel the same. The humidity and "feel like temp." may feel a little more uncomfortable today, but tomorrow and Friday is when we will all really notice that change.

I am hoping it is tomorrow...I have yard work I have to get done today!

Nashville: low 90's
Clarksville: upper 80's to low 90's
Cookeville: upper 80's to possibly low 90's
Columbia: low 90's
Manchester: upper 80's to low 90's

Morning Fog, Afternoon Sun

Good morning! This morning, many areas are waking up to some fog. It isn't thick fog up this way on the Rim or Plateau, but down towards the Buffalo River in Perry County, it may be more thick and turn down the visibility a bit. This morning fog will wear off fast once the morning sun rises and sets in for the day, not only will the sun rise, but so will our temps.

If you have any yard work to do...today would be the day to tackle that hassle. From here on out, the only thing going up with be our temps. and the heat indexes.

Nashville should get to around 92ºF today with places on the Rim/Plateau/and SCK getting to the low 90's as well.

You may think today is hot...just wait til end work week when we could see temps. range in the 94-96ºF range with heat indexes reaching upwards of 105ºF.

MCD: Severe T'storm Watch Possible..Middle TN/SCK

This was issued at 1:21 pm and the SPC is watching this current action in western and central KY and thinks that the severe weather risk is indeed increasing over our region. We continue to see peaks of sun here in Macon County and I would say all across Middle TN, that is helping to unstabilize our atmosphere. CAPE values are in the 2000 J/kg range across southern Middle TN and 1500 elsewhere...that is plenty enough to support severe weather.

If I watch is issued, I will post it here! So be on the lookout today if you are out and about.

Slight Risk: Middle TN and SCK

Storms are beginning to fire up across our region at this hour. Air mass will continue to destabilize across this area throughout the afternoon, and any storms that do form will have the risk at large hail and damaging winds.

Tornado Warnings, Severe T'storm Warnings...Glad Only One Storm Report

After yesterday's rough MCS came through, I was thinking we would see a lot of wind damage and maybe isolated tornadoes too...that, thankfully, didn't happen.

There was one tornado report and that occurred in the Woodlawn, TN area in Montgomery County where law enforcement reported seeing 2 tornadoes on the ground. As of this morning, no damage has been reported, and if there is no damage for the NWS to survey...they will just call this tornado an EF-0.

We could see more storms fire today anywhere in Middle TN, but the best chances for severe weather look to be south of Middle TN all together. The main concern today is going to be flooding as some areas have received over 3" since last night, especially in the SE corner around Parsons, TN.

Last Glimpse At Radar

This is the latest radar image at 11:25 pm and it shows the leftover MCS over the Plateau and continuing to race eastward into east TN. The storms you see back in west TN fired back up and they look very potent on radar, but currently there are no warnings out for any of these cells and I think it is safe to think it will stay that way.

The people in western Middle TN will see frequent lightning and heavy rain out of this, but no severe weather is expected...could see some pea to dime size hail and also wind gusts upwards of 40-45 mph.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #549

This is a couple minutes old, just out from the Storm Prediction Center.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0549.html

Updated Severe Outlook: 7/4

This is the wind profile from the outlooks and zoned out is a 15% risk area for now all of Middle TN and SCK. This morning it was just located in the Northern Middle TN areas and SCK. The 30% wind profiles do clip portions of western Middle around the Waverly and Dover areas.

We could see a MCS form tonight from the action that is associated back in OK moving into AR at this time, and the SPC is thinking that for anyone in this slight risk zone...could see damaging winds. This will be a damaging event, and the locations in the 30% risk area have the best chance.

By the time the next outlook comes (3 pm)...we should be seeing this MCS form and we should know if and when the storms will arrive.

Independence Day Forecast...Severe Storms Possible, But Where?

As of right now, it looks like the biggest area of concern for today is located up close to the surface low in Western KY and Eastern MO. In that location, we could also see isolated tornadoes on top of the damaging winds and large hail.

For here, at least SCK and Northern Middle TN, we could see a squall line or MCS form and move towards us late tonight into the early morning hours. Here is a list of locations and how bad it could get.

• Hopkinsville, KY: MCS arrives at around 7 pm, damaging winds up to 70 mph and hail the size of quarters possible.
  
• Springfield, TN: MCS arrives at around 8 pm, damaging winds up to 65 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
  
• Bowling Green, KY: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 8:30-9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of nickels possible.
  
• Nashville, TN: MCS arrives, while weakening, at around 9 pm, damaging winds to 60 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
  
• Tompkinsville, KY: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.
  
• Gainesboro, TN: MCS arrives, still in weakening mode, at around 10 pm, damaging wind gusts to 58 mph and hail the size of pennies possible.

I didn't mention any southern Middle TN counties for a reason, as you can see by my forecast, I am predicting the MCS to be dying out once it hits Central KY and Northern Middle TN by late tonight into early Sunday morning. For those of you in Southern Middle TN, you should get your fireworks off and going with no problem, while those of us in the Northern counties will have to keep a look to the sky and ears to NOAA weather radio as I do expect we will see a few warnings pop-up here.

Sunday we could see a severe threat, but that would mainly be across the SE counties where the cold front will be stationed and the SPC only gets to the AL/TN border with the latest outlook.


***I also want to say a personal message to the soldiers of our past and present. Thank you's just doesn't seem to be enough when you guys go out everyday and fight for our freedom and Independence, I am praying that you guys will be safe and also I am praying to those families who have loved ones overseas or even the ones who are still in training or on standby over here in the states. Thank you and may God Bless the USA and each one of you!

Tricky Independence Day and Weekend Forecast

This is the categorical risk zone for Saturday and in this zone are people North/NW of Nashville into SCK. The biggest risk is going to be damaging winds, but large hail will be possible too.

I say this is a tricky forecast because the timing of these storms is what has us up a creek without a paddle. The main line of storms doesn't look to hit Middle TN til the early morning hours of Sunday (Sunday's SPC outlook below), but we could see some strong to severe storms form out ahead of it late Saturday.

Tomorrow, we should know when these storms will hit and how bad they could be.

Sunday's risk includes areas from Nashville southward and eastward. Damaging winds will the main threat as we could see an MCS type system roll through here, but large hail could form as well if we get enough cold air aloft.

Clear, Warm Day Today and Tomorrow; Independence Day/Weekend Washout?

This outlook period is for Saturday and it includes most of Middle TN and SCK with Nashville being in it as well. The SPC is saying that a leftover MCS from Friday night will be trekking across this region, the outflow boundary that could form off of this MCS could spark off new storm development over this outlooked area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

This is the the Day 4-8 categorical risk outlooks and these events are ones that are more hard to pinpoint because they are far away, but the SPC felt that for Sunday's threat...they needed to issue one for us to see what they are thinking.

Right now they are saying that the leftover convection from Saturday could evolve into an MCS and move across this whole region starting in the Ozarks and moving into the TN Valley regions. All of Middle TN is included in this outlook.

I am putting the rain chances at 50% for Saturday and 60% for Sunday. Not everyone will see rain and if you do...I wouldn't cancel my Fourth of July plans as it won't be a constant rain over a long period of time, you may just have to call a short rain delay or something of that nature!

Isolated Severe Storms Last Night, More Tonight?

This was issued at around 11:35 pm last night and they never did issue a watch, but they just outlooked this region as we were seeing some severe storms move through these regions. There was even a Tornado Warning issued for a cell over in Fentress and Overton Counties, luckily one never did produce and if it did it only hit rural areas.

• There were a few severe reports from these storms. Close to Bethpage in Sumner County, a fireworks tent was blow upwards and caused a minor injury to the worker at that stand.

• Also, over in Overton County, a few trees were down on power lines and caused few power outages in that county.

• After those surprises last night, we could see some more isolated cells pop-up tonight in advance of another shortwave system that will push through here overnight. I put the chance at 20% for areas of Nashville northward and eastward. These storms will have the chance at damaging wind gusts and large hail to nickel size.