Sunday QuickCast

A chilly start kicks off what appears to be a great day for us here in Middle Tennessee. We'll continue to see partly sunny skies and cooler temperatures for your Sunday. This appears to be the last day we'll see this awesome weather for a while, we have a chance of rain to start out for your Monday, then chances throughout much of the week. Warmer temperatures are also on their way.

SUNDAY FORECAST:
Partly Sunny
High near 65
Winds steady at 5 gusting to 10

SUNDAY NIGHT:
Increasing Clouds, becoming Mostly Cloudy
Low around 44
Winds steady at 5

Forecast for the Week Ahead

Good evening to all!! I have decided to begin posting my weather forecasts on this site again. I hope you will all come back to reading our material and we hope you find it accurate and timely.

Today was great! We had clear blue skies, below normal temperatures, and a sometimes brisk wind for Middle Tennessee. I'd love to say that will stick around, but it doesn't appear likely at all. Changes are on the way for the Mid-South. Following the epic flooding on May 1st and 2nd, Tennessee has seen a very quiet weather pattern, only a few showers and storms moved through a few days ago, but that did not amount to anything at all (thank God). Now it appears we will be sliding into an active weather pattern for the week ahead.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE FORECAST:
SUNDAY: Mostly Sunny, High near 65, steady winds at 5 mph; gusts to 10

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds, Low around 64, 10% Chance of Rain

MONDAY: 50% Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms, High near 70

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers and A Few Storms, Low near 61, Chance of Rain 40%

TUESDAY: Chance of Showers and an Isolated storm, High near 82, Chance of rain 20%

Heavy Rain Moving In; Flooding a Real Problem This Week

We are seeing a huge batch of rain move in from the west this morning and that is the big boy we will have to deal with for today. Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of west TN and northern MS, we could see those translate to heavy rainfall for us too.

This rain will move in this morning and by afternoon, we could see a few isolated thunderstorms form but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Wednesday we see this front stall over our region and bring with it more chances at scattered rain and storms. We could see a few isolated severe storms as well, but widespread severe storm activity isn't expected.

Dry Today...Then The Floodgates Open

After having the boundary sit across the Middle TN area yesterday, that will push further south today and leave many of us dry (can't rule out an isolated shower or t'shower for the counties bordering AL though).

After today...we won't be seeing many days of sunshine or dryness. The QPF readings (which they measure how much rain is expected over an extended period) have all areas of Middle TN and SCK getting over 2.5" of rain this week and one model has it over 3" for all areas with isolated higher amounts.

I will point out that Tuesday will be a mostly dry day til the later part of it into the overnight hours. Then Wednesday through Friday will be when we see the heavy rain come in and stay in.

Today's Severe Risk; Weekend Rain

This morning outlook looks very similar to the one they issued yesterday at lunchtime. The threat is for all of SCK, but residents living north of I-40, especially on the TN/KY line, need to watch this severe day closely. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but large hail is also possible. The bigger tornado risk will be up way north of here where the surface low is at.

While severe weather may not be in the forecast, heavy and widespread rain is. We will have off and on rain chances starting today for the northern third and spreading more widespread as we head into the middle of next week.

A Tornado Watch...For One Cell?

This is the watch that the SPC issued this afternoon at 1:10 pm for portions of the Upper Midwest. Most watches last between 7-10 hours because of the anticipation of severe storms to develop in that watch region and they issue it about 1-2 hours before storms really get going to alert the public of the severe storm potential.

This watch was only issued for that one lone supercell you see on the radar map above in NE Iowa and only put into effect for 4 hours and 50 minutes. You may be thinking that maybe they issued it because they thought more super cellular storms may form out ahead of that one, but the watch discussion didn't mention that risk at all and, in fact, no new storms formed and that one cell ended up dissipating.

I have only been tracking storms for two years and forecasting for one, but I will admit that this is a first I have ever seen and don't believe a watch has ever been issued before because of one cell.

Tomorrow's Severe Risk: SCK

SPC has updated the outlook for tomorrow and all of SCK is included in this area. Damaging winds look to be the main threats in this area as the better instability values will be up into portions of the Great Lakes region around Cleveland, OH, where the surface low will be and the SPC outlook has this same approach in this outlook.

It is not out of the question that northern areas of Middle TN will be in this risk tomorrow, so keep alert of the latest!

Some Morning Showers...Any For Your Afternoon?

We have some showers affecting the northern most part of Middle TN and parts of SCK as well. These are generally light showers, but we can't rule out a strike of lightning. Most people will stay dry today even with these showers across the Northern third of Middle TN.

Once these showers move out, the question on everyone's mind is if we will have more showers/t'showers this afternoon. To answer your question...probably not. I am putting the chance at 20% this afternoon for the northern third and SCK, but that means for you even there is an 80% chance it won't do anything.

But not to worry, if you are one who likes rain or storms...late Saturday into Sunday will be the day for you. A front will actually stall over our region or just south of us and bring rain chances well into the middle of next week.

Current Radar View...Lunchtime Rain!

Widespread Rain This Morning; Very Low Severe Risk

We wake up this morning to a wide swath of rain over the mid-state where many areas are seeing rain totals around .25"-up to an inch is very beneficial and for mid summer...quite pleasant!

As mentioned in the title, we do stand a severe threat today, but you have a better chance of seeing President Obama today then you do a severe storm. If a severe storm does decide to go up and up...the main risk will be severe wind gusts and possibly hail the size of pennies, but the hail threat is going to be almost non-existent today.

With this rain and storm coverage around, this will keep our temps. down today. I'm only forecasting 78ºF for Nashville with lower temps. elsewhere. There is an outside chance that areas of far western Middle TN could see the rain and possibly even the clouds give way. If that happens, then they could get into the 80's for a high, but like I said...that is an outside chance and will more then likely not happen.